Jon Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Canadian doesn’t have a storm. However, FWIW, the 12z Ukmet holds the northern stream energy back and allows it to phase with the southern stream which winds up sending a low pressure through the ohio valley on day 6... It tries to develop a low off the coast at 102hrs...looks like it too is having a problem with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 ECMWF/GFS still have the SSW for day 6/7.We have reversal at 10 hPa but I'd like to see it at 30 hPa.It's very close now but that's a good signal for blocking that it can propagate to the troposphere.Not jumping all in on this yet but want to see it at 30hPa. Both models split the strat PV and I'm fairly confident one piece will come into Canada.GFS wants to take it to west/central Canada in la la land,ECMWF looks a little further east but close .As this thing comes down across Canada it's pulling warming up from the Atlantic around it and warming into Greenland/NE Canada. I like what I see on the GFS though in long range,good geopotential heights over Greenland/NE Canada.Also over the pole.Don't know if it's right but it looks nice today.Still need the MJO to come back around to help the process. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It tries to develop a low off the coast at 102hrs...looks like it too is having a problem with this one. I saw that, but the CMC was so bad with the 26/27th storm I don't have much faith in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I saw that, but the CMC was so bad with the 26/27th storm I don't have much faith in it. Thats 3 runs in a row it puts out snow in Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The euro says hope you enjoy 45 and rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The euro says hope you enjoy 45 and rain! Yep, and we might not get the rain either. It might be 45 and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The euro says hope you enjoy 45 and rain! Yep no real cold air to work with. Pops a weak low off of SC around CHS @90 but there is nothing to make it turn so it just drifts OTS. 850's run through northern AL, GA and up I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Thats 3 runs in a row it puts out snow in Wake County. It had 5 or 6 runs in a row with something wintery for central NC for the 26/27th storm. Hopefully it's right about this one :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yep no real cold air to work with. Pops a weak low off of SC around CHS @90 but there is nothing to make it turn so it just drifts OTS. 850's run through northern AL, GA and up I-40. Yeah not enough cold for the OTS solution I agree, but it's got some real cold moving in by 120...much colder than 00z. -16 850's in well into PA. If this model trends toward anything that would phase and go up the coast, we'd be in for it. Big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Of course the models are crap today after trending netter yesterday. So tired of this and hearing the good stuff is coming only for the models to change a few days beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I do think some are grasping for straws. The models have not budged from this solution. There has been a run or 2, that have been close, but even then its stretching. I think there is a shot at seeing moisture up to the upstate and W NC, but it might not matter. just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Of course the models are crap today after trending netter yesterday. So tired of this and hearing the good stuff is coming only for the models to change a few days beforehand. It could be worse...we could have a non winter pattern setting up for atleast the first half of January. Oh wait, that is what is happening :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Of course the models are crap today after trending netter yesterday. So tired of this and hearing the good stuff is coming only for the models to change a few days beforehand. thats why I never get hopes up until 48 hours out. You should know that as long as you have been around. Can't believe every run you see. Still have time for this to come back if not there will be another one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 What a very difficult pattern this is to really figure out. The models look Terrible for any wintry weather threat with this mess. Its still possible we could see some in the upstate of SC, but the best, and maybe only threat will be into W NC. It seems to me that we are going to see the Southern piece get squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It could be worse...we could have a non winter pattern setting up for atleast the first half of January. Oh wait, that is what is happening :-) But the second part is supposed to be rocking, right? We can't even get it right 7 days away. And December was supposed to be rocking, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I do think some are grasping for straws. The models have not budged from this solution. There has been a run or 2, that have been close, but even then its stretching. I think there is a shot at seeing moisture up to the upstate and W NC, but it might not matter. just my 2 cents. What was Greenspan's phrase? Oh yeah, irrational exuberance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Strongly agree...my favorite partial quote from this thread has been "it is so close to phasing"...LOL While I agree...why not post what you see while we're all here looking at models? We need more posters who can give their insights...yet they only seem to show up after someone else has already said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It could be worse...we could have a non winter pattern setting up for atleast the first half of January. Oh wait, that is what is happening :-) Even after mid January not sure if the pattern will will turn in our favor. In two weeks, the PNA looks to go neutral (currently positive), the NAO will go neutral (from mostly positive), and the AO will go neutral (from mostly positive). So what do we get if the important indicies are all neutral? **I don't think average weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Well the Euro @240 brings a huge ULL out west with torrential rainfall across southeast TX with a huge CAD signal for the Carolinas and a little low along the gulf coast. Kind of looks like something the GFS would spit out in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 What a very difficult pattern this is to really figure out. The models look Terrible for any wintry weather threat with this mess. Its still possible we could see some in the upstate of SC, but the best, and maybe only threat will be into W NC. It seems to me that we are going to see the Southern piece get squashed. What are your thoughts on the ukie? It looks like a big phase that cuts to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Of course the models are crap today after trending netter yesterday. So tired of this and hearing the good stuff is coming only for the models to change a few days beforehand. Just be patient. Tonight's models still have a chance of being netter than they were today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Even after mid January not sure if the pattern will will turn in our favor. In two weeks, the PNA looks to go neutral (currently positive), the NAO will go neutral (from mostly positive), and the AO will go neutral (from mostly positive). So what do we get if the important indicies are all neutral? **I don't think average weather. JB tweeted "Major Stratwarm to force tropospheric cooling over N America, setting stage for bitter arctic attack mid/late Jan" I heard the same thing last year around this time and you know how much that helped. Bad news is, the AO looks to go positive but the good news is it looks like it's progged to go negative once again toward the last half of Jan I'm assuming along with this strat warming. Around this time **hopefully** the NAO will be neutral or at least slightly negative as it looks on a few ens members. Anyway, it looks to me the hope is now resting in January 15th forward. Sound familiar? Current: 10 day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I'm ready for some super cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Well the Euro @240 brings a huge ULL out west with torrential rainfall across southeast TX with a huge CAD signal for the Carolinas and a little low along the gulf coast. Kind of looks like something the GFS would spit out in the LR. Are you sure you're looking at today's 240 EURO? You got the ULL right but that is not a CAD signal for the Carolinas. A torch signal maybe, but not a CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It's interesting looking at the 6 hours euro frames, this is so close to a phased system similar to the christmas storm from 2 years ago. The pattern is almost identical.The models right now are racing the northern vort ahead of the southern vort. If the southern vort were to trend faster, you would see this northern vort fall in behind and cutoff into a phased system and lift the SLP from the GOM up the coast instead of out to sea. It's extremely similar scenario and the models could quickly change if they are just a bit off. I'm still very very interested in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Are you sure you're looking at today's 240 EURO? You got the ULL right but that is not a CAD signal for the Carolinas. A torch signal maybe, but not a CAD. Maps I'm looking at have a 1024 high that stays parked around NY and PA from about 216 - 240. Especially around the last frames the sfc temps are in the 30's and 40's in favored CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It's interesting looking at the 6 hours euro frames, this is so close to a phased system similar to the christmas storm from 2 years ago. The pattern is almost identical.The models right now are racing the northern vort ahead of the southern vort. If the southern vort were to trend faster, you would see this northern vort fall in behind and cutoff into a phased system and lift the SLP from the GOM up the coast instead of out to sea. It's extremely similar scenario and the models could quickly change if they are just a bit off. I'm still very very interested in this one. As Briar mentioned earlier we probably won't know until around Tuesday when it can properly sample that energy in the north. This might be one of those painful ones where we're watching until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 What concerns me right now is the lack of cold air with this system. Yesterday on the 12z gfs there was a 1035 high around NY. That has not shown up since then and the euro has not shown a high that strong. A phased system will bring in a lot of moisture but I'm not sure the cold will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 What concerns me right now is the lack of cold air with this system. Yesterday on the 12z gfs there was a 1035 high around NY. That has not shown up since then and the euro has not shown a high that strong. A phased system will bring in a lot of moisture but I'm not sure the cold will be there. Wouldn't a big phased storm pull the cold air down with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Wouldn't a big phased storm pull the cold air down with it? Yep. Right after it passed by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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