GaWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The black and white 0Z Sun CMC indicates that it is further north than the prior run, which actually gave major S to much of N GA and areas east and west of there. Therefore, I'm guessing this run will be too warm to show most of that big N GA S..we'll see when the 850's are released. So, both the GFS and CMC went downhill for at least N GA. Onto the Euro to save us lol? May very well be a very good run for far N GA and parts of TN/NC, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 UKMet looks a little better to me than the GFS. At hr144, there's a decent neutral tilt trough there just east of the Miss River, with weak sfc low off Savannah. The trough and sfc low are little better coupled on the UKMet compared to the GFS - that is, the GFS had the sfc low off Norfolk when the upper trough was in the same locale as seen here on the UKMet. Who knows what the temps are like though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yep. This system has many ways to it could go and I would not rule out this as one of them. All it takes is a late phase an up the coast it goes. All though this set-up is al little different because back in 2000 snow was already laying on the ground in parts of NC outside the mountains. So cold air was already here, right now we are marginal on the cold. It's hard to always be in the battle ground area but that what makes us ALL weather weenies. Was that the one in Jan. 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Just to compare, here was the 12z. The 0z is 1mb stronger and a couple hundred miles NW with the low. Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The black and white 0Z Sun CMC indicates that it is further north than the prior run, which actually gave major S to much of N GA and areas east and west of there. Therefore, I'm guessing this run will be too warm to show most of that big N GA S..we'll see when the 850's are released. So, both the GFS and CMC went downhill for at least N GA. Onto the Euro to save us lol? May very well be a very good run for far N GA and parts of TN/NC, however. looks suppressed to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Just to compare, here was the 12z. The 0z is 1mb stronger and a couple hundred miles NW with the low. Baby steps And the wave looks noticeably better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 looks suppressed to me If you look at this link, you can see it is further north vs. the prior run (i.e., less suppressed not more supressed) (prior run had it in the far northern GOM to over N FL..this one gets up to S GA..a good 100 or so miles further north): http://www.weatherof...cast/492_50.gif This is going to be warmer and, therefore, further north with the snow...this may benefit far N GA/AL and TN/NC at BHM/ATL corridor's expense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Am I missing something on the CMC? Maps I'm looking at have no storm at the 120hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I think GaWx posted the first storm at hr72 (unless I'm blind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Frank Strait Fan Club Carolina #snow lovers will be salivating after seeing the 0Z GFS run.http://t.co/RRNc2Dzd I don't think the board was salivating after that play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 GFS ENS Mean also less juicy with the low, though looks about the same on temps. No major surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 chill dude. not saying it's going to happen. dont have to be so rude to. and if a employee post's is then it is. Don't want you to get a warning or point whatever...just trying to save you! Same output here. Frank seems overly excited for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I think GaWx posted the first storm at hr72 (unless I'm blind) You're not blind. By 120 hours it is long gone. The posted link to the 72 hour CMC has a weak (1015) low over far SW GA...i.e., ~100 miles further north than the prior CMC run..so warmer but still pretty wet. It may be a better run for TN and perhaps better for parts of NC (probably not better for far south though)/far N GA/far N AL as far as S is concerned? Maybe not but I'm definitely expecting it to be too warm for BHM-ATL-AHN corridor unlike prior run. Waiting for the 850's to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 You're not blind. By 120 hours it is long gone. The posted link to the 72 hour CMC has a weak (1015) low over far SW GA...i.e., ~100 miles further north than the prior CMC run..so warmer but still pretty wet. It may be a better run for TN and perhaps better for parts of NC (probably not better for far south though)/far N GA/far N AL as far as S is concerned? Maybe not but I'm definitely expecting it to be too warm for BHM-ATL-AHN corridor unlike prior run. Waiting for the 850's to confirm. Don't think you will like them. Storm thread delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Don't want you to get a warning or point whatever...just trying to save you! Same output here. Frank seems overly excited for us. I'll take my two inches in southeastern VA and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 You're not blind. By 120 hours it is long gone. The posted link to the 72 hour CMC has a weak (1015) low over far SW GA...i.e., ~100 miles further north than the prior CMC run..so warmer but still pretty wet. It may be a better run for TN and perhaps better for parts of NC (probably not better for far south though)/far N GA/far N AL as far as S is concerned? Maybe not but I'm definitely expecting it to be too warm for BHM-ATL-AHN corridor unlike prior run. Waiting for the 850's to confirm. Upon further review, I need to correct the above post. My description for the location for 72 is right but it is for the 1st low, not the 2nd one that produced major S for the BHM-AHN corridor and other areas ENE and WSW of there. So, I'm assuming it will again be too warm. I got them mixed up. The 2nd one, which would be the key low and potential S producer, is indeed supressed/very weak and likely does nothing meaning the run won't be a good one as jburns suggests. My error on mixing up the two lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 looks suppressed to me You're correct as I mistakingly got the two lows confused. My apologies for my confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 You're correct as I mistakingly got the two lows confused. My apologies for my confusion. No worries at all I honestly had to check a few times myself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Euro is out to 90...looks a little colder on this run but not as much moisture building with the low around TX in the GOM. We'll see where this one takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 When did Virginia join the SE?To much wishcasting going on here as well.Even if the NAM shows this phasing to the EC what does this do?This is wrong and most mets should tell you the SJ is going to rip that look away.This is going OTS. Sometime around 1860ish? I don't think anyone is taking the NAM that serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 euro def looks colder at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 @108 Euro is colder but that low is pretty durn weak. Hopefully it can get stronger as we go. This run has some snow in far NW TX which is pretty rare. Lays down an inch probably where my Grandma lives in Ft. Stockton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 @96, the Euro is much stronger on the northern vort coming in from MN/WI and the positive tilt looks like squash city... strangely, the stronger looking vort. - a trend toward the GFS here plus, the looks of that "west-based" SE ridge and resulting confluence north of it isn't an ideal upstream setup for a subtrop wave (what setup is ideal though? ... hardly any) edit: out to 120, the 0z Euro look at 500mb is VERY similar to the 0z GFS in keeping the northern stream dominant and not letting the subtropical energy eject or remain bundled while ejecting... instead the positive tilt on the northern energy lays the smack down on it we are going to need a much stronger trend on the subtropical wave (would also help if this new look to the northern stream ULL would either displace to the west in a better position for interaction with the SJ energy or the northern vort trend much weaker and less positively tilted... some of those changes have to happen in future runs for any sort of storm in the SE or this may be a flizzard fest OTS... good news is that we have seen sub-tropical waves trend stronger as we get closer to an event optimism should remain that both the GFS and Euro are having trouble diagnosing the northern stream energy and the timing of that energy coming across the Canadian border... it is also well-known that both models have a real tough time diagnosing a sub-tropical wave (especially true when that wave hasn't even landed on the west coast yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 @126 the low just doesn't look strong enough. Basically no moisture has made it past the Southern half of GA and SC. 850 line is running roughly a hair north of CLT to RDU. So colder on this run but more suppressed and weaker with that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 @96, the Euro is much stronger on the northern vort coming in from MN/WI and the positive tilt looks like squash city... plus, the looks of that hybrid SE ridge positioned in the Mediterranean isn't ideal for a subtrop wave with all the confluence above it (what setup is ideal though? ... hardly any) edit: out to 120, the Euro look is VERY similar to the 0z GFS in keeping the northern stream dominant and not letting the subtropical energy eject or remain bundled while ejecting... instead the positive tilt on the northern energy lays the smack down on it we are going to need a much stronger trend on the subtropical wave in future runs for any sort of storm in the SE or this may be a flizzard fest OTS... good news is that we have seen sub-tropical waves trend stronger as we get closer to an event Yep for the weenies out there this one didn't cut the mustard. I'm off to bed folks! Thanks for the explanation Andy let's hope we can pull this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yep for the weenies out there this one didn't cut the mustard. I'm off to bed folks! Thanks for the explanation Andy let's hope we can pull this one out. yep, keep optimism alive... good upper level pattern that some folks need to cash in on... it would be bad luck if THIS is the sub-tropical wave, in a number of recent stalwarts, to underperform edit: out at 144hrs, the 500mb look is whacked out with a piece of our subtrop. energy that's been cutoff in Texas with another, stronger cutoff trying to barge into the middle of the west coast ridge as it's positioned in Washington... lollypops abound odd look to an odd looking run... FWIW, 0z GFS looked too strong/too bundled with the vorticity coming down into the midwest on the 2nd as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 18Z and 00Z GFS RDU Precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Good discussion by Frank Strait http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/snow-opportunities-this-week/3354729 I would be careful everyone while we are this far away from the storm to not automatically assume non-mtn locations will get winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Good discussion by Frank Strait http://www.accuweath...is-week/3354729 I would be careful everyone while we are this far away from the storm to not automatically assume non-mtn locations will get winter precip. got it I can count on one finger the amount of times I have assumed my non-mountain locations of Manchester Tennessee (grew up there and had some doozies), Macon GA or Greenville SC were a lock for wintry precipitation... who does zero-in or expect a specific model solution of frz rain/sleet/snow 5-7 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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