burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Hate to depending on the 84 NAM for anything but at 18z it also had a lot of energy out west that looked like it might do a super phase later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The one storm I know of that was really deep into Baja like that was Jan 22, 1987. Here it is on Jan 20 - http://www.meteo.psu...1987/us0120.php Even though the kid in me is trying to show itself, please remind me that the 84hr NAM is usually on crack. Will try not to get too caught up in the emotion until I see the Euro and GFS showing a similar outcome tonight..... but I have to say I am starting to get that feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looks pretty good also note the High up in Canada moving in just at the right time, it sure does have the potential to be a big dog, and that is all we can ask for this far out. SE ridge also look like it wants to help give our system a nudge north and up the coast a little way. Was just going through the NAM loop on EWall...the wave along the west coast is half way down Baja California at hr84 and is still digging...I actually let out a "Holy S-bomb"...my wife goes "What?"...and I go "Nothing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The one storm I know of that was really deep into Baja like that was Jan 22, 1987. Here it is on Jan 20 - http://www.meteo.psu...1987/us0120.php That was a pretty huge winter storm for the state, mby got hammered with 15 inches of snow, I didn't witness though just looked through the records. That really started what was an epic period of winter weather for the NW part of NC. http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php?location_county=&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&StartYear=1973&EndMonth=09&EndDay=4&EndYear=2012&Submit=Submit&page=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 we would not want a phase to early as it would cut ...no? Yes, I'd say that is generally the case for our areas despite probably seeming counterintuitive. March 1993 was a major exception. If you look back at the strength of lows that caused major wintry precip. in the BHM to ATL corridor over the last 100+ years, they were mostly Miller A's that were fairly weak to moderate strength while still moving in the northern GOM and then moved either into the FL panhandle to near Savannah or further south over the N FL pen. (and sometimes even C FL for ATL). A too early phase would tend to lift the low further northward too much and increase the risk of too much warm advection. It is generally better for the phase to wait til it gets to the east coast, when it doesn't matter to our areas that much, regardless, since we're normally done by then with the bulk of the precip. I'm not speaking for NC/SC or other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yes, I'd say that is generally the case for our areas despite probably seeming counterintuitive. March 1993 was a major exception. If you look back at the strength of lows that caused major wintry precip. in the BHM to ATL corridor over the last 100+ years, they were mostly Miller A's that were fairly weak to moderate strength while still moving in the northern GOM and then moved either into the FL panhandle to near Savannah or further south over the N FL pen. (and somethimes even C FL for ATL). A too early phase would tend to lift the low further northward too much and increase the risk of too much warm advection. It is generally better for the phase to wait til it gets to the east coast, when it doesn't matter to our areas that much, regardless, since we're normally done by then with the bulk of the precip. I'm not speaking for NC/SC or other areas. Cool ....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 That was a pretty huge winter storm for the state, mby got hammered with 15 inches of snow, I didn't witness though just looked through the records. That really started what was an epic period of winter weather for the NW part of NC. http://www.nc-climat...t=Submit&page=5 Yeah, that was the 2nd deepest storm for me in my 48 years of living here. I remember it well, and If this upcoming storm is anything like that one, I would not care if I didn't see another flake the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Well another run another different look at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 0z hr 6018z hr 66 major differences with the S/W in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The ULL in the southwest looks more potent this run compared to the 18z and more consolidated as well. At hour 84 it's not closed off like 18z was at hr 90 but it looks like it's digging more this run in the middle of the baja. Btw burger please continue with your pbp I was just adding a couple comments didn't mean to seem like I was trying to take over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looks good to me... 50/50, confluence, huge PNA, energy out west......lets see where it goes. Baby steps, baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The ULL in the southwest looks more potent this run compared to the 18z and more consolidated as well. GFS out to 84 and it looks like the NAM might be on to something..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 We need the northern energy to dig more, it's not going to happen this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This run looks like it might be a train wreck @96 our low is almost non existent in the GOM around LA. We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This run looks like it might be a train wreck @96 our low is almost non existent in the GOM around LA. We'll see where it goes. I really don't see anything happening here. That s/w over TX and Mex needs to be way stronger to overcome the SE ridge and allow a phase... the strongly pos tilt to the trough axis is not conducive to an amplified scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 @111 low is in the FL panhandle and starting to blossom looks like it's about to go negative. Energy out west looks like it might be starting to phase. Nope looks like there is nothing to see here on this run. Way too warm on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 @111 low is in the FL panhandle and starting to blossom looks like it's about to go negative. Energy out west looks like it might be starting to phase. fingers crossed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I really don't see anything happening here. That s/w over TX and Mex needs to be way stronger to overcome the SE ridge and allow a phase... the strongly pos tilt to the trough axis is not conducive to an amplified scenario. It really wasn't even close, granted we still have 5 days but the changes for the worse were day 3-4 changes. Hopefully tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It just phases too late. On to the next run. Let's see what the ENS/CMC/UKMet and Euro have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 temps way warm at 114, almost none of nc below 0c EDIT: actually none of nc is below 0c, super warm run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 From DT posted 2 minutes ago: 0z sunday run of the GFS coming in... Its only partially complete But ... well ignore this run ... it is seriously flawed and develops a number of "NEW features" in the Jet stream that was NOT there before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 dt says the ull over the dakotas popped up this run and hasn't been there in recent runs, must have been what caused it to be so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It's obvious the GFS is struggling with the upper air pattern. I would caution against getting too emotionally involved in any runs until we're 48 hours or less away from this event because regardless of how other features evolve, the northern stream energy isn't going to get well sampled until the 11th hour, and it will certainly play an integral role in how this event plays out. My main concern has been and still is the battle between the cold air we need over KY/VA and the stubborn southeast ridge which is going to be there and be pushing back against the advance of the polar push from the PV over southeastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 lol GFS says, "light snow party in NC @144". Wow just pops a little low and drops probably 3 inches on RDU with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Coastal areas in NE NC get probably 6 inches on this run or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 temps way warm at 114, almost none of nc below 0c EDIT: actually none of nc is below 0c, super warm run. To warm for snow, but not ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Coastal areas in NE NC get probably 6 inches on this run or so. I don't think so. The cold pretty much chases the moisture and they largely don't connect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 When is the last time when we had a cutoff snow storm in these parts? I'm getting old but think the Carolina Crusher was a cutoff hybrid. It still makes me sick to this day to think about that storm, Nada Flake here and about 25 miles south of me a foot plus. Was that the one in Jan. 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I don't think so. The cold pretty much chases the moisture and they largely don't connect. Yea looks like neither SFC temps or 850's are that great. Looked good on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Let's not forget about our GA/SC friends, impressive... Showing some love for us Coastal folks,,, WooT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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