NCSNOW Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looking only at my backyard, this is the first time this year I didn't look at the models and go.....ugh. I'm watching this one with slowly increasing interest. Every 12z model run (operational and ensemble, even 18z gfs) today have our county getting significant winter weather In the form of snow,sleet,freezing rain. I'd say sleet shows up the most, then snow, then frzng rain if you weight all the different scenerios spit out. My interest is perked and my gut tells me there is gonna be more qpf than what is being put out on these runs. Keep in mind all have been showing .25-.50 today so that in itself all frozen would be a significant event. The past couple of systems,even last night have turned out wetter than forecasted. The confluence up north is the key going forward. Need to keep the pesky LP's that where firing across the great lakes regions out of the way so hp will be sitting there at the right time AND/OR just get a fully phased miller A ride up the FL/GA/SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Quick question about the 6z and 18z runs of the GFS: Is there any new data that are put into these model runs? Or are they just simply rehashes of the 0z and 12z model runs? There's a lot of info on this topic here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 While there is a lull....just wanted to say thank you for the responses on the HPC question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 My take on 12/29 12Z/18Z models for 1/3 for nonmtn. N GA wintry precip. chances (ATL-AHN metro areas northward): a. Goofy (GFS) has a favorable tracking Miller A near the FL/GA border that's too warm for S at 850 but that appears to give NE GA a major ZR. However, it is likely a little too warm for the ATL area and AHN may be getting nothing more than minor ZR. The 18Z Goofy is pretty similar but seemingly with a little less ZR in NE GA. b. Despite a pretty nice tracking Miller A over far N FL pen., Doc (Euro) is too warm at 850 for S and there is no wedging. So, it says ~no wintry for GA. c. With a classic Miller A track over the N FL pen., the Crazy Uncle (CMC) gives the N ATL burbs to AHN a major S (as much as 5-6") which tapers down to the north with less precip. and which is mainly R to the S due to little wedging. The CMC is a less accurate model on avg. and seems to have some tendency for being too far S with tracks/too cold as it was with a recent storm. So, I'd never bet on the CMC's S when the other two don't have S. However, it does tell me it is a small possibility. Then again, the other models would need to go toward it. d. Summary: the 4 runs from the three models all have a nearly perfect (from N GA's standpoint) tracking weak Miller A. These are the kinds of tracks that have produced major S/IP/ZR from the S ATL-AHN metro areas northward in early Jan. as well as during other parts of winter. A weak low as opposed to a strong/phasing low is usually better because it gives the sfc low a better chance of staying pretty far south and limit warm air advection. March, 1993 is one of the exceptions. The vast majority of major N GA wintry storms have been from not so strong sfc lows. The problem in this case may be the lack of cold enough air to the north, which sometimes prevents wintry precip., as mainly suggested by Doc. Regardless, with all three models (four runs) now having this kind of Miller A track, I'm upping the odds of something minor or more for a good bit of N GA for ~Jan. 3 back up to ~1 in 3. (~1 in 6 for sig.+). (I had reduced them in recent days due to a lack of modeled threats.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 About half of the 18z GFS individual ensemble members has snow outside of the mountains in the SE. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf138.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Now we're talking! That's all I ever want...a chance for timing between potential components in the process of becoming And good odds to boot I hope between now and then we can find some better cold though, because zrain has a way of finding me, lol. How strong must the parent high, forcing down the cold, have been to turned all that rain in 73 to zrain! That's got to be like the Blizzard of Zrains in Ga., lol. Not happening too often. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 About half of the 18z GFS individual ensemble members has snow outside of the mountains in the SE. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf138.html I was just looking at those, for 5 days out that seems like that is a very positive but considering its been so long since I tracked a storm I wasn't sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 About half of the 18z GFS individual ensemble members has snow outside of the mountains in the SE. http://raleighwx.ame...8zsnowf138.html i approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 About half of the 18z GFS individual ensemble members has snow outside of the mountains in the SE. http://raleighwx.ame...8zsnowf138.html if anything it shows that a variety of options are still on the table. its gonna be key to not get too up or down with each model run and watch the overall trends. but i know if 00z comes in as a big daddy phased bomb the board would explode. seems like it has been forever since we have had a true weenie run within 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 i approve there are a few quite a bit better than that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I can see a big CAD event for you guys/gals east of the apps, but just not feeling a west of the apps.......TN valley/midsouth snowstorm. Possibly some ice, but who wants that?? All modeling shows a warm nose into east TN and that makes sense to me. Roberts writeup made me optimistic for a few hours, but I just can't shake the feeling of the warm nose coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Seeing lots of guests here. Sign up people and join the fun! Looks like it could be a good week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 if anything it shows that a variety of options are still on the table. its gonna be key to not get too up or down with each model run and watch the overall trends. but i know if 00z comes in as a big daddy phased bomb the board would explode. seems like it has been forever since we have had a true weenie run within 120hrs. I have serious doubts about the prospect of a big phased storm with the trough axis being so severely pos. tilted due to the SE ridge, but if it did, then katy bar the door buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Let's not forget about our GA/SC friends, impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 So, when you look at these snow maps I take it that it's best to look at the one that is in the middle to get a good picture of what could happen. Is that the case? And if so, which one is the middle of the road solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 So, when you look at these snow maps I take it that it's best to look at the one that is in the middle to get a good picture of what could happen. Is that the case? And if so, which one is the middle of the road solution? The one with the yellow line on each side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Let's not forget about our GA/SC friends, impressive... Thanks, BP for the shout out.... there might be some cad going on Sure will be watching to see if some stronger highs can come on board. Still have lots of time to find them. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 So, when you look at these snow maps I take it that it's best to look at the one that is in the middle to get a good picture of what could happen. Is that the case? And if so, which one is the middle of the road solution? Brick......... the one in the "middle of the road" would be the ensemble mean. It averages all the members together and smooths out all the possible outcomes. I thought you already knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 there are a few quite a bit better than that one I'll take this one for the Upstate of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Interesting the 00z nam is attempting to phase the northern vort and stj s/w at hour 84. That's what I think could lead to a huge cutoff scenario over the east coast. We'lll see if the models could converage to something like that. AKA the big dog solution. All the components are there for it (PNA ridge, 50/50 low, active STJ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Interesting the 00z nam is attempting to phase the northern vort and stj s/w at hour 84. That's what I think could lead to a huge cutoff scenario over the east coast. We'lll see if the models could converage to something like that. AKA the big dog solution. All the components are there for it (PNA ridge, 50/50 low, active STJ). Will this lead to the 850s being too warm as others alluded to? Or will it allow 850s to be colder than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Will this lead to the 850s being too warm as others alluded to? Or will it allow 850s to be colder than modeled? Well... it probably wouldn't be good for charleston's snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Well... it probably wouldn't be good for charleston's snow chances. I hope you don't actually think I am asking for mby? I assure you I know it isn't going to snow in chas...I'm asking in the overall sense. I have no skin in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 So - I'm looking at the h5 maps - and while I'm certainly a novice, the upper air pattern next week is setting up similarly to the jan 78 blizzard. I feel like I'm seeing three separate pieces of energy. Got a nice pna ridge, cold polar vortex in eastern Canada. Any thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I hope you don't actually think I am asking for mby? I assure you I know it isn't going to snow in chas...I'm asking in the overall sense. I have no skin in this game. I'm just messing around. It would probably, i mean this may not happen at all, but if it were to phase more, it would mean a much more amplified scenario out of the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Interesting the 00z nam is attempting to phase the northern vort and stj s/w at hour 84. That's what I think could lead to a huge cutoff scenario over the east coast. We'lll see if the models could converage to something like that. AKA the big dog solution. All the components are there for it (PNA ridge, 50/50 low, active STJ). Was just going through the NAM loop on EWall...the wave along the west coast is half way down Baja California at hr84 and is still digging...I actually let out a "Holy S-bomb"...my wife goes "What?"...and I go "Nothing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Was just going through the NAM loop on EWall...the wave along the west coast is half way down Baja California at hr84 and is still digging...I actually let out a "Holy S-bomb"...my wife goes "What?"...and I go "Nothing" Yea it's pretty dramatic looking at hour 84 aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 When is the last time when we had a cutoff snow storm in these parts? I'm getting old but think the Carolina Crusher was a cutoff hybrid. It still makes me sick to this day to think about that storm, Nada Flake here and about 25 miles south of me a foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yea it's pretty dramatic looking at hour 84 aloft. The one storm I know of that was really deep into Baja like that was Jan 22, 1987. Here it is on Jan 20 - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0120.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 we would not want a phase to early as it would cut ...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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