burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 @93 our low is revving up in the GOM still a little colder than the 12z run. At 5h our energy out west looks a little strong with energy diving down into the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This run looks promising. @105 that low is ramping up along the LA coast and temps are colder. At 5h looks like we're going to get a phase soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 fwiw - JB seems to think the models are in error in locking off a trough in the southern rockies. He thinks it comes out and there is a sharp trough in the southeast with a low in lower 1/2 of GA. The picture he paints would be a major southeast/midsouth and southern apps snowstorm. I have seen the models back a low southwest and pinch it off from the flow temporarily many times. I certainly woudn't say it can't happen. In fact I'd say the chances are better than 50/50 it does just that. JMO based on past experiences that were similar in nature. While I'd always rather my lows cross in Fla., with those highs in the mix the chance for a big, strong Cad is there, and with the low in Ga. I might be able to avoid the worst of the zrain being close to the waa, lol. I love sleet, and the dance is always with zrain, or cold rain when I have a chance for sleet. So, I think I'd rather the low in Fla., the strong cad, and some sleet or snow here, lol. But like "the name I must not say" says, it could be zrain for some, in which case I'll take a good bit of it in cold rain, tho I've seen strong caa over come strong waa more than once. If we get some Cad we can never underestimate it, though that happens every time, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This run looks promising. @105 that low is ramping up along the LA coast and temps are colder. At 5h looks like we're going to get a phase soon. Very curious to see how this plays out because it looks like it could be big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 @108 it also has some descent snow for DFW and portions of eastern TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Very curious to see how this plays out because it looks like it could be big... Yea check out all the moisture showing up in TX on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yea check out all the moisture showing up in TX on this run. Yeah if we see this thing phase west of the Mississippi it could be a monster run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Man this run just barely misses the phase. @117 moisture is creeping it's way into the Carolinas with a descent CAD signal looking like it's showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 @120 CAD goes away and moisture is moving in but temps are too warm. There is snow for western TN though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 @126 temps are starting to drop back down looks like possible snow in northern NC. Low is just off of CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This was a close but no cigar run. @129 is moving out OTS looks like the fringes of northern NC are the only ones that get in the action. Over all though it looks like it might be primed for something big over the next few runs. I'll bet DGEX is a weenie dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Man this run just barely misses the phase. @117 moisture is creeping it's way into the Carolinas with a descent CAD signal looking like it's showing up. Starts to lose the confluence over the northeast with all the northern stream energy coming down the backside of the ridge in the Dakotas. One particular piece traverses more east than south. In addition, it still looks to really be struggling with how the two streams are going to interact. If that confluence didn't get eroded, this would be a colder run than 12z it appears though. I wouldn't get too discouraged by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I would start thinking about the potential for some icing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yeah, I like the way this run holds together a weak 850 low pretty much all the way across the south. Visibile from hour 111 to hour 129 save for one three-hour period (117) when it briefly opens up -- if that sucker can hold together, it's a big piece of the puzzle. Starts to lose the confluence over the northeast with all the northern stream energy coming down the backside of the ridge in the Dakotas. One particular piece traverses more east than south. In addition, it still looks to really be struggling with how the two streams are going to interact. If that confluence didn't get eroded, this would be a colder run than 12z it appears though. I wouldn't get too discouraged by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 @5 days to go, still going to be a lot of variability. The fact it is still there is promising. Very close IMO to being a big storm. Will watch closely on next few runs for strong hp to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Even more encouraging news is that the 18z is colder with a weaker high and more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Any ideas on why the HPC is advising to discard what I would assume is the 12Z run of the GFS? This is from GSPs afternoon long term. PER HPC ADVICE...I WILL DISCARD THE GFS AND FAVOR THE ECMWF THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS APPROACH WILL NOT CONCERN THE FORECAST PROCESS WITH THE FREEZING RAIN EVENT DISPLAYED WITHIN THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL REMAIN DEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN TX AND THE NRN GULF COAST. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY MORNING. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW MAY RESULTED IN A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN 925-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON THURSDAY. I WILL INDICATE CHC POPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAIN REMAINS HIGH WITH THE DETAILS OF LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES...THEREFORE...I WILL BASE P-TYPE ON FORECAST SFC TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 30S EAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY CAD-LIKE CONDITIONS...I WILL INDICATE L40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO 40 TO 45 EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looks like what you said Burger with the snow map from the GFS, northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Any ideas on why the HPC is advising to discard what I would assume is the 12Z run of the GFS? This is from GSPs afternoon long term. PER HPC ADVICE...I WILL DISCARD THE GFS AND FAVOR THE ECMWF THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS APPROACH WILL NOT CONCERN THE FORECAST PROCESS WITH THE FREEZING RAIN EVENT DISPLAYED WITHIN THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL REMAIN DEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN TX AND THE NRN GULF COAST. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY MORNING. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW MAY RESULTED IN A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN 925-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON THURSDAY. I WILL INDICATE CHC POPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAIN REMAINS HIGH WITH THE DETAILS OF LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES...THEREFORE...I WILL BASE P-TYPE ON FORECAST SFC TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 30S EAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY CAD-LIKE CONDITIONS...I WILL INDICATE L40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO 40 TO 45 EAST. They did that with the Christmas storm a couple years ago too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Any ideas on why the HPC is advising to discard what I would assume is the 12Z run of the GFS? This is from GSPs afternoon long term. ...MODEL CHOICE... THE 00Z GFS WAS USABLE TO DAY 4...BUT THEN CONTINUED TO DISPLAY A BIAS TOWARD FLATTER FLOW AND FASTER PROGRESSION THAN THE OTHER MODELS ALL THE WAY FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE GEFS HAS BEEN DISPLAYING THE SAME BIAS TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND AT TIMES THE NAEFS...HAS PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. ONE OF THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS A LARGE 588 DECAMETER RIDGE GROWING OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A RIDGE CENTER JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO GIVES US RESULTS THAT MATCH REMARKABLY WELL TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...INCLUDING THE WIDESPREAD SUB-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CONUS AND TENDENCY FOR INCREASED RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE...WE CONTINUED WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT WERE ALSO ABLE TO USE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND UKMET. THE FEATURE OF GREATEST MODEL SPREAD HAS BEEN THE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW APPROACHING CALIFORNIA ON DAYS 6/7. SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF...HAVE THE LOW CUTTING TOO DIRECTLY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. RIDGE. WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY BY TAKING A WEAKER FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A FEW ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Any ideas on why the HPC is advising to discard what I would assume is the 12Z run of the GFS? This is from GSPs afternoon long term. PER HPC ADVICE...I WILL DISCARD THE GFS AND FAVOR THE ECMWF THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS APPROACH WILL NOT CONCERN THE FORECAST PROCESS WITH THE FREEZING RAIN EVENT DISPLAYED WITHIN THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION ON THURSDAY. Here's what I found, Don: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 159 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012 VALID DEC 29/1200 UTC THRU JAN 02/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... FINAL 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE ECMWF ***SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY*** PREFERENCE: ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD HERE AS WELL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NAM DIGS THIS ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THAN 12Z GFS. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ITS 06Z RUN...BUT IS STILL SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WHILE THE GFS LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO AMPLIFIED. PEREIRA I know this doesn't directly refer to the system along the gulf, but it definitely has an effect on its path. The GSP office may be referring to this statement then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 So from what we can gather is the GFS is to fast and zonal across the gulf and the Nam is to far to the south with the energy acroos the Great Lakes? I guess this can effect the high pressure moving across the lakes into the Northeast, yet the energy is sliding to far south. From what I can make of it they are either saying that we will not be cold enough because the high will not be as strong or in right place , it could be a stronger storm effecting more areas up the coast, or app runner you tell me what they are saying? As they don't give an Idea or sensible solution just what is wrong with the models and biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Very curious to see how this plays out because it looks like it could be big... Looking only at my backyard, this is the first time this year I didn't look at the models and go.....ugh. I'm watching this one with slowly increasing interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Quick question about the 6z and 18z runs of the GFS: Is there any new data that are put into these model runs? Or are they just simply rehashes of the 0z and 12z model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I would start thinking about the potential for some icing.... We are certainly concerned about that potential to your W in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Quick question about the 6z and 18z runs of the GFS: Is there any new data that are put into these model runs? Or are they just simply rehashes of the 0z and 12z model runs? I believe there is new data ingested but not as much as 00z...same physics though so basically they are extensions of the 00z and 12z...could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 18z ENS Mean lines up pretty good with the 12z ENS mean just appears to be slightly wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i would think the confidence of gsp would start getting higher on the storm next Thursday, but they don't mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i would think the confidence of gsp would start getting higher on the storm next Thursday, but they don't mention it. We've only had one model run that really showed something. Up to now it's just potential. Nothing happening but rain is the house and the house wins 9 out of 10 times. Their going to take the safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I would start thinking about the potential for some icing.... We are certainly concerned about that potential to your W in Texas. It will be interesting to watch this unfold these next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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