BrierCreekWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This soultion makes sense too given the +PNA and 50/50 low. It favors more of a northern stream system digging. With so much activity in the STJ, there is likely to be a phase. This a huge step towards a major SECS. Agree. And past experience has shown us just how important the precise timing of the phasing is (see 12/26/2010 Euro solutions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Raleigh is mid 30's and 850's roughly 0.7. Get that vort over the lakes out of the way this would have been better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Euro has nothing frozen for anyone outside of the mountains but all and all it followed the GFS compared to 00z's run. You're misreading this run bro. It has all the makings. Trust me on that. There's just a few tweeks here and there and this is a major Miller A noreaster. The models are mishandling the phasing after day 4. This setup would promote a huge cutoff over the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It's really not even close on the 12z euro, if you look at some of the surface temps. Even hickory is at 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This soultion makes sense too given the +PNA and 50/50 low. It favors more of a northern stream system digging. With so much activity in the STJ, there is likely to be a phase. This a huge step towards a major SECS. I agree as well taking these factors into account, but the SE ridge is certainly real. It has to trend weaker and/or shift east to allow something like that to hold intact and phase before getting sheared apart like the models have been doing for a couple of days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I've seen us get burned many times by an innocous little vort traversing the northern tier and inhibiting the development of strong high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I agree as well taking these factors into account, but the SE ridge is certainly real. It has to trend weaker to allow something like that to hold intact and phase before getting sheared apart like the models have been doing for a couple of days now. John, THANK YOU so much for re-setting me in the system! Sorry for the OT, but I hope everyone is well and had a very Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 John, THANK YOU so much for re-setting me in the system! Sorry for the OT, but I hope everyone is well and had a very Merry Christmas! Not a problem! Welcome back. Now where is my foot of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It's really not even close on the 12z euro, if you look at some of the surface temps. Even hickory is at 40. Yeah true, but like Brandon said, if this thing turns into a nor'easter (which is apparently really close, haven't looked myself but I trust him ) the surface temps this run won't even matter. Without that high no matter how this "trends", it won't be close without the cold air unless it turns into a monster...lets hope for that or if not a nor'easter, a good cold air tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Okay, trying to go back and read things. Looks like some model runs had snow, some had ice, and some had nothing all since last night. Is this right? Seems everytime we get something positive the next model run takes it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 You're misreading this run bro. It has all the makings. Trust me on that. There's just a few tweeks here and there and this is a major Miller A noreaster. The models are mishandling the phasing after day 4. This setup would promote a huge cutoff over the east coast. Yea I was just looking at the SFC even by that though it was a big step...either why that's why we have legit folks like you around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 fwiw - JB seems to think the models are in error in locking off a trough in the southern rockies. He thinks it comes out and there is a sharp trough in the southeast with a low in lower 1/2 of GA. The picture he paints would be a major southeast/midsouth and southern apps snowstorm. I have seen the models back a low southwest and pinch it off from the flow temporarily many times. I certainly woudn't say it can't happen. In fact I'd say the chances are better than 50/50 it does just that. JMO based on past experiences that were similar in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 fwiw - JB seems to think the models are in error in locking off a trough in the southern rockies. He thinks it comes out and there is a sharp trough in the southeast with a low in lower 1/2 of GA. The picture he paints would be a major southeast/midsouth and southern apps snowstorm. I have seen the models back a low southwest and pinch it off from the flow temporarily many times. I certainly woudn't say it can't happen. In fact I'd say the chances are better than 50/50 it does just that. JMO based on past experiences that were similar in nature. That would be awesome though he is running against his own rule about a ridge west of Spain teleconnecting to the SE Ridge, which the models have been insistent of maintaining during this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Euro shows less seperation between the two streams hence less confluences over the northern PLains/mW/NE and hence no strong surface high. You can see this at hour 120 Euro GFS Notice how the gfs has the upper level system cut off near the 4 corner while the Euro doesnt show that? The cut off on the GFS promotes strong confluence in the two streams thus surface high pressure formation. Which one is right? Who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 fwiw - JB seems to think the models are in error in locking off a trough in the southern rockies. He thinks it comes out and there is a sharp trough in the southeast with a low in lower 1/2 of GA. The picture he paints would be a major southeast/midsouth and southern apps snowstorm. I have seen the models back a low southwest and pinch it off from the flow temporarily many times. I certainly woudn't say it can't happen. In fact I'd say the chances are better than 50/50 it does just that. JMO based on past experiences that were similar in nature. I think it comes out. There's a kicker in hot pursuit right on its tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That would be awesome though he is running against his own rule about a ridge west of Spain teleconnecting to the SE Ridge, which the models have been insistent of maintaining during this event. He is saying the next trough coming in behind It will act as a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 He is saying the next trough coming in behind It will act as a kicker. That's what DT thinks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Major update from Robert next week check his site out. Not going to get any hopes up, so you can read it at his FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Euro Ensemble mean pretty similar with precip, slightly further south track and colder 850mb 0 line is from around CLT to RDU to ECG. Euro ensemble mean snow again shows a mean average of 2-3 inches across much of western/centra/northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Euro Ensemble mean pretty similar with precip, slightly further south track and colder 850mb 0 line is from around CLT to RDU to ECG. Euro ensemble mean snow again shows a mean average of 2-3 inches across much of western/centra/northern NC. Nice thanks for chiming in. I am feeling pretty good about this one were I am at this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 What do we need to be looking for in later runs for this to trend colder? Carib ridge sliding east? Stronger hp over the lakes? Or will a stronger hp only help cad areas? Also if it phases will that help or hurt the carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 RAH long range discussion this afternoon basically states they're in a wait and see mode: .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY... AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WITHIN THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THIS ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM...A PAIR OF PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE INITIAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR CONVEYOR FEED DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT A NARROW PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVE/STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET SUPPORTING A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE ARE NO P-TYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME WITH CONVEYOR BELT WARMING TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN. THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM...WITH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND EC AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW CLOSING/CUTTING OFF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. JUST HOW MUCH NORTHERN-SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND PENDING AVAILABILITY OF THE COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS AND INLAND EXPANSION OF PRECIP SHIELD FROM THE COAST ARE ALL UP IN THE AIR AT THIS TIME AND WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR-NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. -- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 fwiw - JB seems to think the models are in error in locking off a trough in the southern rockies. He thinks it comes out and there is a sharp trough in the southeast with a low in lower 1/2 of GA. The picture he paints would be a major southeast/midsouth and southern apps snowstorm. I have seen the models back a low southwest and pinch it off from the flow temporarily many times. I certainly woudn't say it can't happen. In fact I'd say the chances are better than 50/50 it does just that. JMO based on past experiences that were similar in nature. he also said warm up Jan 11-16 then cold comes back for a while probably to March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 What do we need to be looking for in later runs for this to trend colder? Carib ridge sliding east? Stronger hp over the lakes? Or will a stronger hp only help cad areas? Also if it phases will that help or hurt the carolinas? It's gonna be pretty tough for points south of CAE to get in on this simply because of the cold air source I would think. I believe the ridge in the Caribbeans needs to stay put as this helps stop the low from going totally out OTS once it gets to FL. We need a strong HP system with a phase . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 84hr NAM (I know it's useless to look at) is a vort party out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 84hr NAM (I know it's useless to look at) is a vort party out west. It's the 84hr NAM, but by-golly does it look primed for a winter storm. It's got good stream separation and a lot of confluence over the northeast, and it looks ripe to phase as well. Let's just hope the trends continue with getting the dry air further south faster. The fact the Euro ensembles are colder than the operational seems like a good sign to me in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Out to 81 the GFS is just a tad bit colder compared to it's 12z run. Let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The southern low is already much stronger at 84 hours compared to the 12z run, as it's closed off on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Briercreekwx your a welcome addition to the south east crew. Thank you for your work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 low is closed off at 84, lets see what the temps do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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