January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[burgertime]

lol and this one is going to have the low just a tad too far north. @123 low is around ATL...moisture making it's way into NC with 850's at the VA/NC border and freezing sfc temps in northern NC.

[packbacker]

And at day 5 the GFS has a cut-off low over Colarado...very Euro like...at the surface the GFS has a weak wave coming into the SE which I can't tell from what as the energy is in the Midwest.

[burgertime]

@126 snow in the mountains with a ZR or sleet look for I-40 low is heading due east somewhat southeast of ATL.

[packbacker]

@126 snow in the mountains with a ZR or sleet look for I-40 low is heading due east somewhat southeast of ATL.

Yep, ice storm I-40 north in NC.

[HKY_WX]

There is still substantial potential next week w/ this +PNA pattern setting up and the 50/50 low.

[burgertime]

We have ourselves an ice storm for folks I-40 and north in NC. 850 line is at the VA border. @129 low is going across CHS. @132 freezing sfc line is close to CLT. about .25 of ice probably for points north of CLT.

[burgertime]

There is still substantial potential next week w/ this +PNA pattern setting up and the 50/50 low.

Yep, while I hate ZR this is a great step for the GFS.

[Poimen]

at 120 I see LP over the northern GOM/FL Panhandle.

[burgertime]

By 138 it's outta here. Looks like sfc temps never quite get cold enough for the CLT area thankfully for MBY.

[BullCityWx]

If you look at the soundings, this probably starts as snow once the column is moistened up:

Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z THU 3 JAN 13

Station: KAKH

Latitude: 35.20

Longitude: -81.15

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

0 1000 203

SFC 998 221 2.4 -1.3 76 3.7 0.9 40 10 275.7 276.3 274.2 285.3 3.47

2 950 617 1.4 -10.0 42 11.4 -2.4 59 21 278.6 278.9 273.5 284.0 1.88

3 900 1051 0.5 -9.9 46 10.4 -3.0 71 15 282.0 282.4 275.5 287.8 2.00

4 850 1511 2.0 -6.0 56 7.9 -1.2 110 5 288.2 288.7 279.8 296.6 2.88

5 800 2000 3.1 -7.6 45 10.7 -1.2 251 3 294.5 295.0 282.4 302.6 2.69

6 750 2524 2.4 -3.5 65 5.8 -0.3 252 8 299.1 299.9 285.7 311.0 3.94

7 700 3077 -2.2 -3.1 94 0.9 -2.6 237 10 300.0 300.8 286.4 313.1 4.34

8 650 3663 -4.4 -4.7 97 0.3 -4.6 223 20 304.0 304.8 287.6 316.7 4.14

9 600 4292 -7.0 -7.1 99 0.2 -7.0 222 30 308.1 308.8 288.6 319.7 3.73

10 550 4967 -9.9 -10.1 99 0.1 -10.0 219 40 312.3 312.9 289.6 322.7 3.24

11 500 5699 -12.5 -12.6 100 0.1 -12.6 228 59 317.7 318.3 290.9 327.3 2.90

12 450 6500 -15.3 -15.5 98 0.2 -15.3 232 78 324.0 324.5 292.4 332.6 2.55

13 400 7382 -19.9 -20.2 98 0.2 -20.0 238 89 329.1 329.5 293.3 335.8 1.93

14 350 8360 -27.0 -27.3 97 0.3 -27.1 245 93 332.3 332.6 293.4 336.5 1.16

15 300 9449 -36.5 -36.8 97 0.4 -36.5 247 95 334.0 334.1 293.3 336.0 0.54

16 250 10685 -46.7 -46.8 98 0.1 -46.7 248 113 336.7 336.7 293.7 337.6 0.23

17 200 12128 -57.2 -57.5 96 0.3 -57.2 252 125 342.2 342.2 294.9 342.5 0.08

18 150 13911 -63.3 -66.8 62 3.5 -63.3 258 104 361.1 361.1 299.0 361.2 0.03

19 100 16377 -70.2 -79.7 24 9.5 -70.2 244 67 392.1 392.1 304.1 392.1 0.01

TRP 0

WND 0

[burgertime]

at 120 I see LP over the northern GOM/FL Panhandle.

I was probably generous with the central AL...more like southern AL.

[franklin NCwx]

at 120 I see LP over the northern GOM/FL Panhandle.

Same here, ewall keeps the surface low in the northern gulf. Very odd run at 5h with the northern stream cutting off over Colorado. Huge changes for only 120 hours out. I'm sure this will change again and not be the final solution.

[Poimen]

Did someone say CAD? The good news is that this is within the 5 day window.

[BullCityWx]

With a 1033 high over NYS, I dont care what the model says this is a huge ice storm(possibly sleet).

[nchighcountrywx]

CPC One Month Outlook for January

CPC 3 Month Outlook for January/February/March

[BullCityWx]

This sounding would argue that Hickory stays snow for at while, at least:

Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z THU 3 JAN 13

Station: KHKY

Latitude: 35.73

Longitude: -81.38

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

0 1000 210

SFC 975 411 1.4 -1.5 81 2.8 0.2 59 6 276.5 277.1 274.6 286.1 3.51

2 950 623 0.8 -5.9 61 6.7 -1.7 68 12 278.0 278.4 274.1 285.2 2.58

3 900 1055 -1.7 -6.0 73 4.3 -3.3 81 9 279.8 280.2 275.3 287.4 2.72

4 850 1512 0.0 -5.0 69 5.0 -2.0 151 4 286.2 286.7 279.1 295.1 3.10

5 800 1999 1.9 -9.2 43 11.1 -2.3 260 5 293.2 293.6 281.5 300.3 2.37

6 750 2519 0.6 -5.0 66 5.6 -1.8 279 11 297.3 297.9 284.5 307.8 3.51

7 700 3070 -2.4 -3.5 92 1.2 -2.9 263 13 299.9 300.6 286.2 312.6 4.21

8 650 3657 -4.2 -5.0 94 0.8 -4.6 237 17 304.2 304.9 287.6 316.6 4.04

9 600 4285 -7.1 -7.5 97 0.4 -7.2 226 27 307.9 308.6 288.5 319.3 3.63

10 550 4960 -10.4 -10.6 98 0.2 -10.5 218 39 311.8 312.4 289.3 321.7 3.10

11 500 5690 -13.0 -13.2 98 0.2 -13.0 231 56 317.2 317.8 290.6 326.3 2.77

12 450 6489 -16.5 -16.6 99 0.1 -16.6 236 72 322.5 323.0 291.8 330.3 2.32

13 400 7367 -21.2 -21.3 99 0.1 -21.2 237 85 327.4 327.8 292.7 333.5 1.75

14 350 8340 -27.4 -27.6 99 0.1 -27.5 240 96 331.8 332.0 293.3 335.8 1.13

15 300 9429 -36.8 -37.0 98 0.2 -36.8 243 96 333.5 333.6 293.2 335.5 0.53

16 250 10662 -47.2 -47.3 99 0.1 -47.1 245 114 336.0 336.0 293.5 336.8 0.22

17 200 12101 -57.9 -58.1 97 0.3 -57.9 252 131 341.1 341.2 294.7 341.5 0.07

18 150 13879 -63.3 -66.1 69 2.7 -63.4 259 112 360.9 361.0 298.9 361.1 0.04

19 100 16358 -69.1 -79.7 20 10.6 -69.2 244 65 394.2 394.2 304.4 394.3 0.01

TRP 0

WND 0

[mackerel_sky]

That is classic location for a low to provide a good event for most of SE ,if we have some cold air available

at 120 I see LP over the northern GOM/FL Panhandle.

[Cold Rain]

Nice expansive high pressure to the north. That is exactly right. There is still plenty of room for this to trend colder. Very good step here.

[franklin NCwx]

With a 1033 high over NYS, I dont care what the model says this is a huge ice storm(possibly sleet).

I agree, the cold north of the high in eastern Canada is extreme. That is not stale air it is tapping.

[NCSNOW]

1035 HP parked in perfect position for NC CAD areas. Mostly Sleet soundings with frontside snow. .25-.50 qpf Triad area.

[RaleighWx]

This is a moderate/significant winter storm with plenty of frozen/freezing precip. Check out partial thicknesses. They support sleet/freezing rain for most of NC.

[strongwxnc]

You ar correct sir. Great cad look for most areas in nc .

1035 HP parked in perfect position for NC CAD areas. Mostly Sleet soundings with frontside snow. .25-.50 qpf Triad area.

[RaleighWx]

Lets see if ens members back it up and if Euro shows it too. Would be nice to see some model consistency develop on the frozen end!

[franklin NCwx]

Lets see if ens members back it up and if Euro shows it too. Would be nice to see some model consistency develop on the frozen end!

What did last nights euro ensembles show?

[RaleighWx]

What did last nights euro ensembles show?

2-3 inches of snow over east-central NC and 1-2 inches over most of the state. Keep in mind this is an average of 50 something members. So a few could be big while a majority not and thus that my skew the interpretation. Overall though it was more encouraging than the op run.

[DopplerWx]

Is there a possibility for this to trend colder to get northern sc above the 0c line? Or will this mainly be a CAD event?

[ILMRoss]

The event modeled by the 12z GFS reminds me just a little bit of the Jan 29-30 2010 storm.

[Cold Rain]

2-3 inches of snow over east-central NC and 1-2 inches over most of the state. Keep in mind this is an average of 50 something members. So a few could be big while a majority not and thus that my skew the interpretation. Overall though it was more encouraging than the op run.

Thanks for the comments Allan. I know it'll make Brick happy when he logs on and sees that another met is posting.

I'll ask this and anyone can answer, but why would there be more IP/ZR than snow with this type of setup? I would expect that more out of a Miller B-type setup. I'm guessing that the cold air dome being wedged down is modeled pretty shallow?

[Jonesing for a chase]

rest of 12z very odd- much wamer after storm but then pops a coastal and nearly another winter storm at truncation

[HKY_WX]

Euro is going to struggle w/ this kinda system till probably 120-132 hours out. These southern stj systems are tricky on the timing/etc. But I love the PV lobe as a 50/50 low and the PNA ridge w/ undercutting STJ. That does resemble dec 2002 a lot.