January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[POWERSTROKE]

Looking like a major stratospheric warming event is possible in early January. That would be enough to drop the AO again and disrupt the PV to an extent it may not recover from. That goes along well w/ the analog years i came up w/ on the -pdo/-ao in Oct/Nov/Dec. All showing frigid Januarys and February. Buckle up, I think winter is just starting.

I am glad you see that too.

JB mentioned this yesterday.

[Wow]

Out to 141 and that energy coming through Texas just gets lost. Nothing really phases on this run. There was a slight increase in moisture in NC and GA on this run compared to 12z.

It's closer that it was looking in earlier runs. That s/w over TX has to hold its own. If it is overplaying the SE ridge just a little too much, that can mean everything with this setup.

[bingcrosbyb]

Next Friday looks pretty cold across the US.

well our high is still showing up.

[Pilotwx]

Looking at 00z GFS there is a massive battle going on between the COLD High and a semi-pineaplle express flow and I think the GFS just can't make out which one wins so we are seeing that the farther east it gets the models are picking up the cold high pressure and just overwhelming the moisture and pushing it south.

[Carvers Gap]

+6.0 for temps @ KTRI(will be a little less to tomorrow) so far for December. As I said before, this will almost guarantee a warmer than average winter. I have never claimed snow won't be normal. It doesn't take much for that to happen. However, the temp departures will be tough to erase. What will be interesting is to see where December will rank. It won't be ranked first, but I would think it will be ranked quite high. It will be interesting to see if the teleconnector ensembles or the CFS2 will be correct for January. The Pacific continues to be problematic and that has driven the cart. All patterns break, let's hope this one breaks sooner than later. There are definitely signs this may happen towards the end of January as many have opined. If the pattern actually breaks cold, that would obviously be where a big storm would be expected. Until Arctic air gets involved, it will be tough to get a widespread snow, though not impossible. KTRI needs 12.8 inches of snow to break even. If February can indeed go cold, that is achievable even though temps most likely will be well above normal for the season.

[Carvers Gap]

I hope you have something to back this statement up other than, "As I said before..." That's a bold statement. There have been plenty of winters where December was warmer than normal and the rest of the winter was cold.

Probability and statistics. Do the math. It will take incredible cold to erase that. It is easy to see.

[ncwinterwxman]

Wait, you were talking about just for KTRI...my bad...gotcha...I guess I thought you were talking about the entire southeast...my fault...I misread..

Probability and statistics. Do the math. It will take incredible cold to erase that. It is easy to see.

[Carvers Gap]

Wait, you were talking about just for KTRI...my bad...gotcha...I guess I thought you were talking about the entire southeast...my fault...I misread..

No big deal and thanks for the message. Welcome to the board and I hope you get to say you were right in about eight weeks!

[DopplerWx]

cmc is very cold, hp is strong. storm very suppressed.

[DopplerWx]

euro is colder at 120hr than 00z gfs. also colder than 12z.

12z

[Marion_NC_WX]

Me likes the Euro look at 120 at the lower levels and up aloft.

[DopplerWx]

the caribbean ridge looks to be moving eastward at 120. allowing the cold to come further south.

[Marion_NC_WX]

@144...850's down to the NC/SC line, surface low developing in the GOM.

[Wow]

@144...850's down to the NC/SC line, surface low developing in the GOM.

'

while the 0 line is further south, so is the precip shield... stays over the gulf coast.

[Marion_NC_WX]

'

while the 0 line is further south, so is the precip shield... stays over the gulf coast.

You know...its amazing how over a period of just 7-10 days, we have gone from storms that started northward and trended north...to now storms that are being squashed. Go figure?

[SN_Lover]

this system is just hard to get excited about with the low being as weak as it is and being sheared off.

[Poimen]

So just to summarize where we stand, as I understand it, unless something materializes in the day 5-6 time frame (which seems unlikely at the moment) then most of us will have to wait until mid January or later for winter to return/begin (assuming the strat warming does it's thing and or blocking returns per the CFS).

Please understand I'm not trying to be a negative nancy, just trying to discuss the overall situation/pattern.

[packbacker]

Still huge differences on the Euro vs GFS, the GFS by day 5 has weakened the southern energy fairly significantly and resides in central Tx, well what's left of it. Meanwhile the Euro has almost a 2 contour cut-off over the NW coast of Mexico at the same time which doesn't start coming east until day 7-8.

[packbacker]

5 of the 6z GFS ENS members had snow in NC, only a couple were big, but that's not bad for a day 6 storm.

[beanskip]

Yes, and the reality is, we haven't really had a modeled storm to follow all winter. Some "nice overall looks" and "good pattern" and "almost theres" but nothing I would even call a legimate threat.

And you shouldn't have to apologize for allegedly being a negative nancy to point out the truth -- we are going to be about a third of the way through our winter season by mid-month with no legitimate threats and no reason -- other than some long range fantasy casts -- to think that is going to change.

This board's problem isn't negative nancys, it's the fact that most of us haven't had snow in 24 months.

So just to summarize where we stand, as I understand it, unless something materializes in the day 5-6 time frame (which seems unlikely at the moment) then most of us will have to wait until mid January or later for winter to return/begin (assuming the strat warming does it's thing and or blocking returns per the CFS).

Please understand I'm not trying to be a negative nancy, just trying to discuss the overall situation/pattern.

[strongwxnc]

Very good points Skip. I think folks were quick to pull the Nancy card in December. But now that we are heading full steam in the new year, the talk that Poimen used above is fine with most.

Yes, and the reality is, we haven't really had a modeled storm to follow all winter. Some "nice overall looks" and "good pattern" and "almost theres" but nothing I would even call a legimate threat.

And you shouldn't have to apologize for allegedly being a negative nancy to point out the truth -- we are going to be about a third of the way through our winter season by mid-month with no legitimate threats and no reason -- other than some long range fantasy casts -- to think that is going to change.

This board's problem isn't negative nancys, it's the fact that most of us haven't had snow in 24 months.

You got that right. Thanks for posting this info!!

5 of the 6z GFS ENS members had snow in NC, only a couple were big, but that's not bad for a day 6 storm.

[FallsLake]

Yes, and the reality is, we haven't really had a modeled storm to follow all winter. Some "nice overall looks" and "good pattern" and "almost theres" but nothing I would even call a legimate threat.

And you shouldn't have to apologize for allegedly being a negative nancy to point out the truth -- we are going to be about a third of the way through our winter season by mid-month with no legitimate threats and no reason -- other than some long range fantasy casts -- to think that is going to change.

This board's problem isn't negative nancys, it's the fact that most of us haven't had snow in 24 months.

I've been posting on the PNA, NAO, and AO the last few days. Each new output has been very consistant in showing a warm pattern around mid Jan. All we can do is hope that after this time we get at least a couple of the indicies on our side.

I read years back that in mid winter we don't have to have a perfect pattern to receive winter storms (even in the SE).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[franklin NCwx]

I think Dec 09 and 10 spoiled a lot of people. Dec is just not a snowy month for us, even in the mountains compared to Jan, Feb, and March. There is nothing wrong with people posting that there is a warm up coming or that they don't think the pattern looks that great. And then show why. It's just the people posting "this winter sucks" in the first week of Dec, Or the " we have lost the heart of winter" on Dec 10th.

[packbacker]

I've been posting on the PNA, NAO, and AO the last few days. Each new output has been very consistant in showing a warm pattern around mid Jan. All we can do is hope that after this time we get at least a couple of the indicies on our side.

I read years back that in mid winter we don't have to have a perfect pattern to receive winter storms (even in the SE).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

And not surprisingly the CFS backed off on the real cold anamolies for Jan, precip actually went up for Jan. Will have to wait for the CFS weeklies to see what it shows, hopefully the last week or so of Jan things improve.

[packbacker]

I know it's the DGEX but need some good mojo for the 12z runs...

[packbacker]

Well at day 4 the 12z GFS has a much stronger southern vort than the 0/6z GFS, this "should" translate wetter for SE on day 6.

[burgertime]

Every run of the GFS seems to have a different look at 5h. On 12z you can see some energy diving through the Rockies while the energy in Tx is falling apart. Let's see what solution we get on this one. Already night and day from 6z to this point @108

[burgertime]

@117 the low is in central AL. This is going to be much wetter for the SE but still doesn't look like there is much cold air to speak of.

[franklin NCwx]

Every run of the GFS seems to have a different look at 5h. On 12z you can see some energy diving through the Rockies while the energy in Tx is falling apart. Let's see what solution we get on this one. Already night and day from 6z to this point @108

Southern stream is coming out first. This will be farther north, Can we phase?

[franklin NCwx]

@117 the low is in central AL. This is going to be much wetter for the SE but still doesn't look like there is much cold air to speak of.

If the low is that far north then we have a phase.