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January Pattern and Storm Discussion


Cold Rain

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144 is close to a big daddy

18zgfs850mbTSLPp06144.gif

I see high pressure with possible coastal development...a lot can happen there and until this thing gets sampled we won't know what the heck is gonna happen. Many possible scenarios. If something comes out of this wintery I'd say its a bonus. I think better set ups with real arctic air are down the road mid month January as some of our top mets have eluded too.

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This may need to be moved to banter, but I think it deserves to be here since it's very scientific and can be used for this 1/03/13 threat and others in the future for those in NC. This research paper is over 200 pages and it goes over all kinds of stuff dealing with Winter weather.

A Trajectory Approach To Analyzing The Ingredients Associated With Heavy Winter Storms In Central North Carolina

It will take a few to load, but at least give it a nice scan over. :)

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DT made a great vid highlighting why the gfs seems to be keeping the s/w weak, and how temps should be cold enough for snow witht eh two arctic highs.

I will go on record as saying **I do not agree** with this. DT just casually states that there is "plenty of cold air" for NC - not true! This is an extremely marginal event, and I haven't seen any model data that would suggest otherwise. With the H5 ridge as strong as it is over the Carribean, the PV can only push the cold air so far to the south. We'll see how much colder this can trend (I'm rooting against my own intuition), but I'm not going to get my hopes up with this look.

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I will go on record as saying **I do not agree** with this. DT just casually states that there is "plenty of cold air" for NC - not true! This is an extremely marginal event, and I haven't seen any model data that would suggest otherwise. With the H5 ridge as strong as it is over the Carribean, the PV can only push the cold air so far to the south. We'll see how much colder this can trend (I'm rooting against my own intuition), but I'm not going to get my hopes up with this look.

You thinking Raleigh area (central NC) will have issues, and foothills/mtns are OK? You thinking VA/NC border is the battleground?

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I will go on record as saying **I do not agree** with this. DT just casually states that there is "plenty of cold air" for NC - not true! This is an extremely marginal event, and I haven't seen any model data that would suggest otherwise. With the H5 ridge as strong as it is over the Carribean, the PV can only push the cold air so far to the south. We'll see how much colder this can trend (I'm rooting against my own intuition), but I'm not going to get my hopes up with this look.

Isn't the reason we even have what cold air is there due to what he says in his video of the arctic jet diving too far south? That's what confused me about his video...if it doesn't dive as far south then wouldn't it make it not cold enough?

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You thinking Raleigh area (central NC) will have issues, and foothills/mtns are OK? You thinking VA/NC border is the battleground?

I should have been a little more clear - I mean, I do agree with some aspects of what he said lol. I do think this will be an overruning situation, but I think it's going to be hard to get the real cold air south of VA. At the same time, with the PV displaced as far southeast as it's currently projected, it's going to be hard to get much moisture north of NC. It's going to take a few more days to see how the streams interact with individual pieces of energy, but I'm just having a hard time envisioning many scenarios where east of INT in NC sees any significant wintry weather. If we do see more phasing, this will most likely trend warmer for NC but could trend a lot better for southern VA (more moisture with the cold air in place). I'll leave it to others with more skill and knowledge to speculate about the mountains, as I don't claim much expertise in that region - but for the rest of NC, I'm not too optimistic of much. Although a few "token flakes" would be considered a victory at this point I suppose.

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I should have been a little more clear - I mean, I do agree with some aspects of what he said lol. I do think this will be an overruning situation, but I think it's going to be hard to get the real cold air south of VA. At the same time, with the PV displaced as far southeast as it's currently projected, it's going to be hard to get much moisture north of NC. It's going to take a few more days to see how the streams interact with individual pieces of energy, but I'm just having a hard time envisioning many scenarios where east of INT in NC sees any significant wintry weather. If we do see more phasing, this will most likely trend warmer for NC but could trend a lot better for southern VA (more moisture with the cold air in place). I'll leave it to others with more skill and knowledge to speculate about the mountains, as I don't claim much expertise in that region - but for the rest of NC, I'm not too optimistic of much. Although a few "token flakes" would be considered a victory at this point I suppose.

Thanks! It is funny, DT referenced last Feb winter storm and of course temps were a battle south of VA border....

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agreed... too many short wavelengths and not enough spacing for s/v's to dig and pound somebody/multiple people

don't get me wrong, we don't need a western ridge nosing up to Bristish Columbia all the time for something to happen in the southeast (when other players are involved), but the consistent pattern of weak wave after weak wave riding in on a northwest flow into California/WA leads to only transient cold in the SE that is very easily overcome when a decent storm setup at 500mb comes along

I agree with the bolded.....but when/if the spacing ever increases (along with some decent blocking), it will be a memorable time for many

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Looking like a major stratospheric warming event is possible in early January. That would be enough to drop the AO again and disrupt the PV to an extent it may not recover from. That goes along well w/ the analog years i came up w/ on the -pdo/-ao in Oct/Nov/Dec. All showing frigid Januarys and February. Buckle up, I think winter is just starting.

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Latest CFS2

wk3.wk4_20121227.z500.gif

Just a heads-up, when the "Winter is always 10 days away" crowd sees this post, you're going to get flamed for posting the CFSv2.

On another note, it took me a good 45 seconds to find the United States on that map. I know I haven't been getting a lot of sleep lately, but good grief.

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Just a heads-up, when the "Winter is always 10 days away" crowd sees this post, you're going to get flamed for posting the CFSv2.

On another note, it took me a good 45 seconds to find the United States on that map. I know I haven't been getting a lot of sleep lately, but good grief.

Well it snowed here the day before christmas, will probably snow tonight, there is a chance of snow next week, and the CFS is showing a frigid january. I'm not sure what planet those folks are living on.

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Well it snowed here the day before christmas, will probably snow tonight, there is a chance of snow next week, and the CFS is showing a frigid january. I'm not sure what planet those folks are living on.

Planet IMBY. Anyway, thanks to you and Hailstorm for keeping us up to speed on the strat warming. It's a piece of the puzzle that's good to learn more about.

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Just a heads-up, when the "Winter is always 10 days away" crowd sees this post, you're going to get flamed for posting the CFSv2.

On another note, it took me a good 45 seconds to find the United States on that map. I know I haven't been getting a lot of sleep lately, but good grief.

No kidding. It was like a strange Rorschach exercise.

hmmmm...I have a sneaky feeling, this run will be different....maybe much diff. if we get some sort of a phase...

I'm interested to see whether or not that flashy High will still be involved. It needs to get in a few more snaps if it wants to earn the "trend" title.

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ya, they are, but the whole jet seems to be configured differently on this run...we shall see....VERY tough pattern for the models right now

Out to 141 and that energy coming through Texas just gets lost. Nothing really phases on this run. There was a slight increase in moisture in NC and GA on this run compared to 12z.

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