DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 144 is close to a big daddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 this is what we heard about the end of December, Oh well, same old same old. Sorry but you are dead wrong. Many including myself were trying to stop the cliff divers back in early Dec. Said many times it typically never snoes south of the NC mtns before January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 144 is close to a big daddy I see high pressure with possible coastal development...a lot can happen there and until this thing gets sampled we won't know what the heck is gonna happen. Many possible scenarios. If something comes out of this wintery I'd say its a bonus. I think better set ups with real arctic air are down the road mid month January as some of our top mets have eluded too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 We have almost everything we want, models picking up on a high pressure in the ne/great lakes and a coastal storm. The details will be ironed out but the trends are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Robert and other paid sites really like cold really coming from mid jan thru first of March. Historically this is the time we have had bigger storms. We shall see Hopefully that will work out. I know I have seen many big February and March snows in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This may need to be moved to banter, but I think it deserves to be here since it's very scientific and can be used for this 1/03/13 threat and others in the future for those in NC. This research paper is over 200 pages and it goes over all kinds of stuff dealing with Winter weather. A Trajectory Approach To Analyzing The Ingredients Associated With Heavy Winter Storms In Central North Carolina It will take a few to load, but at least give it a nice scan over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 DT made a great vid highlighting why the gfs seems to be keeping the s/w weak, and how temps should be cold enough for snow witht eh two arctic highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 DT made a great vid highlighting why the gfs seems to be keeping the s/w weak, and how temps should be cold enough for snow witht eh two arctic highs. I will go on record as saying **I do not agree** with this. DT just casually states that there is "plenty of cold air" for NC - not true! This is an extremely marginal event, and I haven't seen any model data that would suggest otherwise. With the H5 ridge as strong as it is over the Carribean, the PV can only push the cold air so far to the south. We'll see how much colder this can trend (I'm rooting against my own intuition), but I'm not going to get my hopes up with this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I will go on record as saying **I do not agree** with this. DT just casually states that there is "plenty of cold air" for NC - not true! This is an extremely marginal event, and I haven't seen any model data that would suggest otherwise. With the H5 ridge as strong as it is over the Carribean, the PV can only push the cold air so far to the south. We'll see how much colder this can trend (I'm rooting against my own intuition), but I'm not going to get my hopes up with this look. You thinking Raleigh area (central NC) will have issues, and foothills/mtns are OK? You thinking VA/NC border is the battleground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I will go on record as saying **I do not agree** with this. DT just casually states that there is "plenty of cold air" for NC - not true! This is an extremely marginal event, and I haven't seen any model data that would suggest otherwise. With the H5 ridge as strong as it is over the Carribean, the PV can only push the cold air so far to the south. We'll see how much colder this can trend (I'm rooting against my own intuition), but I'm not going to get my hopes up with this look. Isn't the reason we even have what cold air is there due to what he says in his video of the arctic jet diving too far south? That's what confused me about his video...if it doesn't dive as far south then wouldn't it make it not cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 You thinking Raleigh area (central NC) will have issues, and foothills/mtns are OK? You thinking VA/NC border is the battleground? I should have been a little more clear - I mean, I do agree with some aspects of what he said lol. I do think this will be an overruning situation, but I think it's going to be hard to get the real cold air south of VA. At the same time, with the PV displaced as far southeast as it's currently projected, it's going to be hard to get much moisture north of NC. It's going to take a few more days to see how the streams interact with individual pieces of energy, but I'm just having a hard time envisioning many scenarios where east of INT in NC sees any significant wintry weather. If we do see more phasing, this will most likely trend warmer for NC but could trend a lot better for southern VA (more moisture with the cold air in place). I'll leave it to others with more skill and knowledge to speculate about the mountains, as I don't claim much expertise in that region - but for the rest of NC, I'm not too optimistic of much. Although a few "token flakes" would be considered a victory at this point I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I should have been a little more clear - I mean, I do agree with some aspects of what he said lol. I do think this will be an overruning situation, but I think it's going to be hard to get the real cold air south of VA. At the same time, with the PV displaced as far southeast as it's currently projected, it's going to be hard to get much moisture north of NC. It's going to take a few more days to see how the streams interact with individual pieces of energy, but I'm just having a hard time envisioning many scenarios where east of INT in NC sees any significant wintry weather. If we do see more phasing, this will most likely trend warmer for NC but could trend a lot better for southern VA (more moisture with the cold air in place). I'll leave it to others with more skill and knowledge to speculate about the mountains, as I don't claim much expertise in that region - but for the rest of NC, I'm not too optimistic of much. Although a few "token flakes" would be considered a victory at this point I suppose. Thanks! It is funny, DT referenced last Feb winter storm and of course temps were a battle south of VA border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Although a few "token flakes" would be considered a victory at this point I suppose. Nope. Smelling a beautiful women's perfume and nothing more leaves you even more horny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 agreed... too many short wavelengths and not enough spacing for s/v's to dig and pound somebody/multiple people don't get me wrong, we don't need a western ridge nosing up to Bristish Columbia all the time for something to happen in the southeast (when other players are involved), but the consistent pattern of weak wave after weak wave riding in on a northwest flow into California/WA leads to only transient cold in the SE that is very easily overcome when a decent storm setup at 500mb comes along I agree with the bolded.....but when/if the spacing ever increases (along with some decent blocking), it will be a memorable time for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 From Allan (Twitter)... 12z Euro Ensemble show an ensemble mean of 2-3 inches of snow acrosss western/central/northern NC with the event 1/3 to 1/4. However keep in mind, I am not seeing the individual runs. A few members could show a lot thus skewing the mean number. Threat is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looking like a major stratospheric warming event is possible in early January. That would be enough to drop the AO again and disrupt the PV to an extent it may not recover from. That goes along well w/ the analog years i came up w/ on the -pdo/-ao in Oct/Nov/Dec. All showing frigid Januarys and February. Buckle up, I think winter is just starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Latest CFS2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Latest CFS2 Just a heads-up, when the "Winter is always 10 days away" crowd sees this post, you're going to get flamed for posting the CFSv2. On another note, it took me a good 45 seconds to find the United States on that map. I know I haven't been getting a lot of sleep lately, but good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Just a heads-up, when the "Winter is always 10 days away" crowd sees this post, you're going to get flamed for posting the CFSv2. On another note, it took me a good 45 seconds to find the United States on that map. I know I haven't been getting a lot of sleep lately, but good grief. Well it snowed here the day before christmas, will probably snow tonight, there is a chance of snow next week, and the CFS is showing a frigid january. I'm not sure what planet those folks are living on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well it snowed here the day before christmas, will probably snow tonight, there is a chance of snow next week, and the CFS is showing a frigid january. I'm not sure what planet those folks are living on. Planet IMBY. Anyway, thanks to you and Hailstorm for keeping us up to speed on the strat warming. It's a piece of the puzzle that's good to learn more about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 hmmmm...I have a sneaky feeling, this run will be different....maybe much diff. if we get some sort of a phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hmmm. Looks like a LP in south AL on 00z GFS @ 102? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 hmmmm...I have a sneaky feeling, this run will be different....maybe much diff. if we get some sort of a phase... So many pieces on this run and @120 they're still separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Just a heads-up, when the "Winter is always 10 days away" crowd sees this post, you're going to get flamed for posting the CFSv2. On another note, it took me a good 45 seconds to find the United States on that map. I know I haven't been getting a lot of sleep lately, but good grief. No kidding. It was like a strange Rorschach exercise. hmmmm...I have a sneaky feeling, this run will be different....maybe much diff. if we get some sort of a phase... I'm interested to see whether or not that flashy High will still be involved. It needs to get in a few more snaps if it wants to earn the "trend" title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ya, they are, but the whole jet seems to be configured differently on this run...we shall see....VERY tough pattern for the models right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Still too warm, BUT I think this has a shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 too warm, looks warmer than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think, with that 1034mb high, the low level cold is likely underdone a bit. We shall see, its very close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ya, they are, but the whole jet seems to be configured differently on this run...we shall see....VERY tough pattern for the models right now Out to 141 and that energy coming through Texas just gets lost. Nothing really phases on this run. There was a slight increase in moisture in NC and GA on this run compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 well our high is still showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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