January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[packbacker]

The 12z GFS is a step in the right direction, but I think it's also a misleading one to some extent. If the low were any stronger on this run, the increased WAA would still result in a predominantly all rain event across the southeast. The cold air is from KY/VA northward, so what we really need to see is our high build in stronger, faster, and further south allowing the true Arctic air to push into the southeast. However, if the H5 ridge is anywhere near as strong as modeled, I don't know if that will happen.

Well with the PV in SE Canada and a big PNA ridge and a HP 1030+ building into the lakes isn't enough for us to get it cold enough for snow/ice than that would be a huge bummer. Thanks for your thoughts on this!

[griteater]

12z Canadian is also pressing the cold air farther south...and keeps the 7-day storm suppressed much like the GFS. You need wiggle room with the cold air, so we want to see this colder trend continue (at the risk of it being drier), IMO.

[Wow]

It ends up being a race of course for both the low in the south and cold up to our north. In the end the low doesn't turn the corner quite sharp enough out of FL.....but again it was really close. We might have ourselves something to watch after all.

If that second subtropical s/w that dives into Mexico can trend stronger and hold its hold as it moves into the confluent flow then we could see a big storm here. Big IF though.. and it would have to phase late once the sfc low is over the SE coast or else the WAA will take snow out of the equation.

[bingcrosbyb]

12z GFS ensemble mean shows 1030mb+ HP in the heartland with a 1012mb LP in the south gulf of mexico.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS144.gif

By 156, it's much weaker and scoots off the eastern coast.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS156.gif

[Wow]

Good news from this run is the W European ridge is gone by 1/7.. that'll take out the SE ridge for a while.

[Cold Rain]

Just got back from eating some famous chicken and biscuits and looking over the guidance, I'm liking what I'm seeing.

Trends are good with this cycle so far. Unlike much of last winter and this winter thus far, there is definitely potential for a colder trend, and the models may be starting to show that now. We finally have a legitimate cold air source waiting to be tapped, which has been the primary reason I have been interested in this one for a while.

The timing will have to be good, still...after all, we do live in the SE. But with real cold air nearby, we have real potential here.

As far as the storm goes, there's still the possibility of it getting sheared too much or it remaining too far south. Of course, It could also phase too early with energy diving down in the northern stream, increasing warm advection and bringing rain (I think this is less likely than suppression though). But as modeled, the storm isn't going to magically get stronger on it's own. It's going to have to phase with something. If it does that at the right time, we're looking at a big winter storm.

In any case, a lot of options are on the table and this is a real threat...at least until Dr. No comes out.

[nrgjeff]

More positively tilted trash. Great for a little ice in western NC, and snow showers in the mountains back side of the wave, but not much else. Even the mountains can't get a good NW flow encore with such positively tilted troughs. Brier Creek nails it. A subtle but impactful H5 ridge stubbornly stays in the Southeast if even occasionally retreating to the Gulf. The buffet line of bowling balls into California is not helping. The Plains troughs pivot at the Mississippi River. We need them to keep digging all the way into Texas before sliding east from Louisiana. I don't see that the first half of January.

After the 11-15 day mild interlude, I'm seeing signs of a better weather pattern for real snow at lower elevations of the Mid South and North Carolina. Some is model based, but another method adds optimism. We had a cycle through fall with a cold period in Oct/Nov interrupted by two mild interludes right before mid-Oct and again around 1 Nov. The coldest anomalies came later in Nov. A repeat of the 60-80 day cycle would promote a weather pattern more bullish for snow in the Southeast in late Jan and part of Feb.

[packbacker]

Through 120 hours very little difference between the GFS/EURO at both the surface and aloft.

Fairly big differences at H5, much stronger southern energy on Euro, which is held back longer than GFS. The EURO shows snow in Mexico on day 5/6.

[franklin NCwx]

Fairly big differences at H5, much stronger southern energy on Euro, which is held back longer than GFS. The EURO shows snow in Mexico on day 5/6.

unlike the gfs the euro has the northern stream out in front. It would ne great if the southern stream energy was stronger and faster.

[Cold Rain]

Euro holds the energy back in the SW longer and then shears out the wave. It needs to come out a little faster.

[Cold Rain]

The 12Z cycle should illustrate that there is so much energy in the flow that a number of solutions are possible. No reason to get too discouraged or too excited at this point.

[DopplerWx]

euro shows our high over the lakes, 0c line down into upper sc.

[burgertime]

The 12z GFS is a step in the right direction, but I think it's also a misleading one to some extent. If the low were any stronger on this run, the increased WAA would still result in a predominantly all rain event across the southeast. The cold air is from KY/VA northward, so what we really need to see is our high build in stronger, faster, and further south allowing the true Arctic air to push into the southeast. However, if the H5 ridge is anywhere near as strong as modeled, I don't know if that will happen.

More positively tilted trash. Great for a little ice in western NC, and snow showers in the mountains back side of the wave, but not much else. Even the mountains can't get a good NW flow encore with such positively tilted troughs. Brier Creek nails it. A subtle but impactful H5 ridge stubbornly stays in the Southeast if even occasionally retreating to the Gulf. The buffet line of bowling balls into California is not helping. The Plains troughs pivot at the Mississippi River. We need them to keep digging all the way into Texas before sliding east from Louisiana. I don't see that the first half of January.

After the 11-15 day mild interlude, I'm seeing signs of a better weather pattern for real snow at lower elevations of the Mid South and North Carolina. Some is model based, but another method adds optimism. We had a cycle through fall with a cold period in Oct/Nov interrupted by two mild interludes right before mid-Oct and again around 1 Nov. The coldest anomalies came later in Nov. A repeat of the 60-80 day cycle would promote a weather pattern more bullish for snow in the Southeast in late Jan and part of Feb.

Thanks for the input guys, this is why for you this is a profession and for me it's just a hobby. Hopefully if we don't get a shot next week we can cash in around mid Jan.

[POWERSTROKE]

Robert and other paid sites really like cold really coming from mid jan thru first of March. Historically this is the time we have had bigger storms. We shall see

[SN_Lover]

More positively tilted trash. Great for a little ice in western NC, and snow showers in the mountains back side of the wave, but not much else. Even the mountains can't get a good NW flow encore with such positively tilted troughs. Brier Creek nails it. A subtle but impactful H5 ridge stubbornly stays in the Southeast if even occasionally retreating to the Gulf. The buffet line of bowling balls into California is not helping. The Plains troughs pivot at the Mississippi River. We need them to keep digging all the way into Texas before sliding east from Louisiana. I don't see that the first half of January.

After the 11-15 day mild interlude, I'm seeing signs of a better weather pattern for real snow at lower elevations of the Mid South and North Carolina. Some is model based, but another method adds optimism. We had a cycle through fall with a cold period in Oct/Nov interrupted by two mild interludes right before mid-Oct and again around 1 Nov. The coldest anomalies came later in Nov. A repeat of the 60-80 day cycle would promote a weather pattern more bullish for snow in the Southeast in late Jan and part of Feb.

I'm confused. does a positively tiled trough not allow the low to dig further south and swing up the coast? Id rather have it be positive than negative.

[Brick Tamland]

Robert and other paid sites really like cold really coming from mid jan thru first of March. Historically this is the time we have had bigger storms. We shall see

So it's really going to happen this time?

[DopplerWx]

Robert and other paid sites really like cold really coming from mid jan thru first of March. Historically this is the time we have had bigger storms. We shall see

It is tiring hearing this after each non-event. It is always 3 to 4 weeks away it seems. Let's get past this 1/03 threat first before talking about the weather a month or more from now.

[nam0806]

It is tiring hearing this after each non-event. It is always 3 to 4 weeks away it seems. Let's get past this 1/03 threat first before talking about the weather a month or more from now.

agreed. I don't like hearing the same thing over and over again. If the models can't figure out what's going on...why should we?

[dsaur]

Just got back from eating some famous chicken and biscuits and looking over the guidance, I'm liking what I'm seeing.

Trends are good with this cycle so far. Unlike much of last winter and this winter thus far, there is definitely potential for a colder trend, and the models may be starting to show that now. We finally have a legitimate cold air source waiting to be tapped, which has been the primary reason I have been interested in this one for a while.

The timing will have to be good, still...after all, we do live in the SE. But with real cold air nearby, we have real potential here.

As far as the storm goes, there's still the possibility of it getting sheared too much or it remaining too far south. Of course, It could also phase too early with energy diving down in the northern stream, increasing warm advection and bringing rain (I think this is less likely than suppression though). But as modeled, the storm isn't going to magically get stronger on it's own. It's going to have to phase with something. If it does that at the right time, we're looking at a big winter storm.

In any case, a lot of options are on the table and this is a real threat...at least until Dr. No comes out.

The one around the 3rd is the one I like, but still no cold push. We have established a wetter pattern though, if suppressed, for that one, on the model, but that will most likely be north some (as long as the low stays in Fla for my druthers.) and some cold pushing down, in a time span acceptable to climo, could suggest something might happen with timing As long as the 0 line is around Tenn. then there is always a chance for a high to move into place, and shove it south. But it's always the caa/waa dance around here, so lets get two days out, and we might know something sorta firmish, in a nebulous kind of way, lol.

Now the rain is establiished some, I'd like to see a solid cold snap, before I get excited about cold and wet ducks doing the ducky dance It's that coaster ride with wet in the dips and cold at the peaks, that is a normal winter around here, and so far we've only been in the dips. Hard to phase the two as long as there is only one, lol. This time of year though a storm can appear two days out for a big surprise.... so I'm waiting....and meanwhile I'll take all the rain I can get, gladly!!!

T

[Cold Rain]

I'm confused. does a positively tiled trough not allow the low to dig further south and swing up the coast? Id rather have it be positive than negative.

So first, abandon the notion that positive troughs are good and negative tilted troughs are bad. Both can be good or bad, depending on several factors including, degree of tilt, your location in reference to the tilt, surrounding temperature, etc.

If the SE ridge is too strong, you could get a really positively tilted trough (not the only reason you get a pos tilt, but it certainly can help to hinder a wave's amplification -- obtaining a neutral/neg tilt). If the wave is too positive and/or gets sheared apart -- smashed between the SE ridge and the PV to the north, you get no good moisture transport and lift -- two things you need if you want snow.

If the trough is able to amplify and turn negative, you get lots of lift and moisture return. Lots of your really big storms gain a neg tilt. The problem then is timing. If it goes neg before it gets to you, you generally get warm air advection, rain, and maybe even storms. You'd like to be north and west of where it goes neg. Then you'd have a better shot of heavy snow IF there is enough cold air in place.

In this case, the energy may run into Wow's meat grinder, remain very positive and not amplify and thus die out. If that happens, we get high clouds and chilly weather. But I think it is possible for the wave to amplify a little and bring some precip into the area. But as I said earlier, all options are indeed on the table at this point.

[POWERSTROKE]

It is tiring hearing this after each non-event. It is always 3 to 4 weeks away it seems. Let's get past this 1/03 threat first before talking about the weather a month or more from now.

JB said cold Dec, he missed that. In October he said cold dec warm mid jan then the worse cold after that. Looking at models he looks to be right on that part. Robert,JB, and even Dt have never said we would get anything out of the last few storms nor the ones in front of us this weekend or upcoming New Years. Robert even posted on FB that he didn't see anything out of tomorrow and next week would be close. Huffman even tweeted the same for Dec and up to mid Jan. Does like chances from mid Jan on. I am not weatherman so I don't know. But instead of getting excited with every model run only to be let down you may want to read some of their ideas.

[deltadog03]

The biggest problem I see is that the Pacific is still a trainwreck. Honestly, if it wasn't for the downturn in the SOI, we more than likely wouldn't have had the rains we have had lately. I think sometimes we (myself included) get so excited about certain runs and or certain looks to a pattern, but we do have to realize that we live in the SE. I think there are many on this board, and off, that need to lower there expectations. I love snow as well, but I see it happen many times, why is the storm always at *insert hour number here* and it never gets closer. etc. All I am saying is that we will get winter, but in many cases that might only be for less than 30 days. I like the look of the pattern, but the SOI has really begun to rise again and that could mean a spell of shi*** weather again if that low gets back into Alaska.

[SN_Lover]

can someone please explain to me why posting a discussion is grounds for removal? since when is the national weather service irrelevant in this forum?

GSP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AT 2 PM FRIDAY...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO

INDICATE THAT THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY A POSITIVELY

TILTED CENTRAL CONUS MID LEVEL TROF. TWO WAVES OF QG FORCING IS

EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...THE FIRST

WAVE SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED TO PEAK

THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH EACH ROUND OF MID LEVEL QG FORCING...SFC

LOW PRESSURE SHOULD FORM OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK NE

ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NRN FL. I WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHC POPS

FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN

TO RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE LLVL

THICKNESS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. USING A BLEND OF HPC TEMPERATURE

GUIDANCE AND MEX MOS...IT APPEARS THAT MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN

SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL FAVOR SN ACROSS THE MTNS AT

NIGHT...MIXING OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. EACH EVENT WILL LIKELY

RESULT IN QPF LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

CAE

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 18Z ON TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE GULF. MORE DISCREPENCY BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE GFS TRACK OF THE SECOND SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK... SOME POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ISSUES MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS MUCH LOWER THAN THE ECMWF THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST AND STRETCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY EARLY FRIDAY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

The biggest problem I see is that the Pacific is still a trainwreck. Honestly, if it wasn't for the downturn in the SOI, we more than likely wouldn't have had the rains we have had lately. I think sometimes we (myself included) get so excited about certain runs and or certain looks to a pattern, but we do have to realize that we live in the SE. I think there are many on this board, and off, that need to lower there expectations. I love snow as well, but I see it happen many times, why is the storm always at *insert hour number here* and it never gets closer. etc. All I am saying is that we will get winter, but in many cases that might only be for less than 30 days. I like the look of the pattern, but the SOI has really begun to rise again and that could mean a spell of shi*** weather again if that low gets back into Alaska.

agreed... too many short wavelengths and not enough spacing for s/v's to dig and pound somebody/multiple people

don't get me wrong, we don't need a western ridge nosing up to Bristish Columbia all the time for something to happen in the southeast (when other players are involved), but the consistent pattern of weak wave after weak wave riding in on a northwest flow into California/WA leads to only transient cold in the SE that is very easily overcome when a decent storm setup at 500mb comes along

[Snowless in Carrollton]

The biggest problem I see is that the Pacific is still a trainwreck. Honestly, if it wasn't for the downturn in the SOI, we more than likely wouldn't have had the rains we have had lately. I think sometimes we (myself included) get so excited about certain runs and or certain looks to a pattern, but we do have to realize that we live in the SE. I think there are many on this board, and off, that need to lower there expectations. I love snow as well, but I see it happen many times, why is the storm always at *insert hour number here* and it never gets closer. etc. All I am saying is that we will get winter, but in many cases that might only be for less than 30 days. I like the look of the pattern, but the SOI has really begun to rise again and that could mean a spell of shi*** weather again if that low gets back into Alaska.

Yes, we do live in the southeast so expectations shouldn't be too high. However, we should expect at least some snow every winter, even along the I-20 corridor. We do average a couple inches of snow per winter after all. So it shouldn't be that hard to get at least a couple of minor snow events deep into the south.

[Tacoma]

Robert and other paid sites really like cold really coming from mid jan thru first of March. Historically this is the time we have had bigger storms. We shall see

this is what we heard about the end of December, Oh well, same old same old.

[burgertime]

Man Euro EPS control (ENS?) was really close for NC. More moisture there than the OP with 850's in the 0 - +5 range. Of course as others have noted with out a real source of cold air WAA will wreck everything.

[DopplerWx]

18z gfs had a similar suppressed strom track but it was colder, almost all of nc raleigh points west were above the 0c line.

[packbacker]

I don't see any reason why we can't get an overrunning event next week with the SLP shooting off the SE coast somewhere. I am not talking big dog but a 2-4" nice event. These SW'a are running up on each other but in the past 10 days we have had 2 of those blow up. I know the usual caveats apply as they always do (cold air, WAA, supression, SE ridge)...

If come Monday afternoon and things don't look more promising than maybe throw in the towel than and start looking towards the end of Jan.

[DopplerWx]

this look at 138 isnt bad at all.