Marion_NC_WX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yea that initial wave kind of did a weird split thing where a little lobe went up the apps. As Wow pointed out and has pointed out we need to turn the meat grinder off. Yeah...seems like the "Pig Ridge" is killing any cold air dump. Don't remember that being an issue in several winters around here. Had it a lot in the 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This time period still looks interesting, if anything else its the only time this winter I can recall we had a stout western ridge. Any possibility the models are overdoing the SE ridge? (insert sarcasm here) and we have a more potent 2nd wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 This time period still looks interesting, if anything else its the only time this winter I can recall we had a stout western ridge. Any possibility the models are overdoing the SE ridge? (insert sarcasm here) and we have a more potent 2nd wave? It's possible the representation of the ridge is a little stout. But more likely IMO is they may be under-representing the level of cold air transport into parts of the region. There are still many options on the table: Does the SW system come out in multiple pieces or one piece? Will it get totally or partially sheared apart? Will the low over the Lakes move out in time to allow more high pressure to build in? Will there be any phasing or partial phasing with any northern stream energy? It will likely take a couple more days for answers to these questions to begin to come into focus. The good thing is, this time, it appears there is some form of southern stream energy available and there is some decent cold air standing by. So the bottom line is, in about 2 years, this is the best threat we've seen. Let's give it time to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah, this seems like a real "thread-the-needle" shot and probably only for N.C. and the upside is low -- 1-2 inches tops. Really hard to believe that once this shot passes it will probably be the second half of the month before we even get a shot. What are the chances that the first two seasons without recorded snowfall in Charlotte happen back to back? Not too early to start asking that question, imo. "Bet the streak" has as much utility in weather forecasting as it does in Vegas. The subtropical ridge pressing against the polar/arctic trough is going to keep the 850mb freezing line from making its way much into the SE. You can see after the storm skirts by that the arctic front stalls over NC/SC. If it is going to snow, it'll be on the light side along the northern tier of the SE region as these strung out waves streak NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 some tweets from Robert: WxSouth @WxSouth CFSv2 Has historic Winter Storm look mid and late January in Southeast to MidAtlantic. Locks hard core Winter pattern into February as well WxSouth @WxSouth not impressed with NC mountain snow chances.Warm advection very strong, 850s too warm first half of event, but Boone cools at end for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 interesting situation developing tonight for a brief period of sleet or snow for a few folks (rain for others) in Western NC before some dynamic warming overwhelms the column from the top-down as the warm layer is pulled down with the heavy precip rates... especially interesting around the Balsam Mtns southwest of Asheville, Weaverville and Marion... *edit: seen this situation under-forecast many times with a weak low, but if precip rates get too heavy then rain will overcome the cold layer quicker than what has been shown on 6z and 12z panels for this evening and tonight as the warm layer is drawn to the surface... regardless, it will be fun to watch this and see what transpires since now-casting is less stressful or less schizophrenic than long-range stuff with the flip in the AO forecast for early January, next month may not look as promising if the long-range is taken at face value on recent runs at least, but then again... it helps to realize that more darkness than daylight is on our side in early January ... hold up, let me take a look at the Euro weeklies and see if those have flipped again... pick up the phone Mr. Bob It's maddening how the GFS wants to string all the energy out next week and keep energy attached (still, close to a bundle with the sub-trop energy and the northern stream)... then you look at the Euro shows it's bias as it tries hard to pull "an Eric Holder" in selling it's soul to Mexico on most runs with the ULL just sitting and spinning over/around Mexico for days... truthfully, we could pick Burger or Bevo to blindfold himself and throw darts at a dart-board with potential January solutions attached to it and have as good of a chance figuring out the upcoming pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 truthfully, we could pick Burger to blindfold himself and throw darts at a dart-board with potential January solutions attached to it and have as good of a chance figuring out the upcoming pattern I can do this, I have a dartboard at home lol. Seriously though you're right the GFS and Euro in the LR have just been crazy with something different it seems every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If your only looking at the PNA, NAO, and AO; then it looks like next week would be the best setup for all three. PNA will continue to be positive, NAO will drop to slightly positive, and the AO will still be negative. ....After next week it does not look good; PNA drops to neutral, NAO trends more positive, and the AO goes positive. That would tell me we should expect a warm mid January. What it does after that I have no idea. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If your only looking at the PNA, NAO, and AO; then it looks like next week would be the best setup for all three. PNA will continue to be positive, NAO will drop to slightly positive, and the AO will still be negative. ....After next week it does not look good; PNA drops to neutral, NAO trends more positive, and the AO goes positive. That would tell me we should expect a warm mid January. What it does after that I have no idea. http://www.cpc.ncep....nnections.shtml Exactly why I hope we can get something out of this system at the beginning of the new year. We better take what we can when we can. People are looking at models showing something big in mid and late January and we don't even know what's going to happen a week from now. I would hate to put our hopes on something else coming later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Man, if the southern energy wouldn't weaken so much it could have been a big winter storm at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hmmm...things could get interesting on the 12z it looks cold wise to be a mix between 00z and 6z. 850 line is running along I-40 and it looks like the low is turning the corner. We'll see where it goes though. Out to 147 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This is a great trend. 12z is VERY close to something bigger. Hopefully the other models start pushing this way. I'm guessing some ENS members might have a descent hit for parts of NC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Well well well....at 138, look at that nice big fat High moving into a great position, and also notice that the little L over the Lakes, moving into the NE is gone. The SW shortwave is going to get sheared out this run, but that's ok. I can only see out to 138 at this point, but I know that's what's gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Well well well....at 138, look at that nice big fat High moving into a great position, and also notice that the little L over the Lakes, moving into the NE is gone. The SW shortwave is going to get sheared out this run, but that's ok. I can only see out to 138 at this point, but I know that's what's gonna happen. It ends up being a race of course for both the low in the south and cold up to our north. In the end the low doesn't turn the corner quite sharp enough out of FL.....but again it was really close. We might have ourselves something to watch after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Intriguing...for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 We are thiiiis close to some phasing and a much bigger event...on this version of the GFS, I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That has a wonderful look. As long as we start to see shaper turn things might be , as least with this run, looking great. Intriguing...for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not a bad place to be with the GFS in the 5-7 day time frame. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wow. Didn't expect to see that high pressure sitting over the great lakes on the GFS. Very close to a big event for the SE. I'm thinking if the shortwave doesn't get sheared, we have a nice phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the bad news is there is virtually no arctic air in the US after the day 6 storm departs. It's very mild in the extended, which I think we have seen coming for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the bad news is there is virtually no arctic air in the US after the day 6 storm departs. It's very mild in the extended, which I think we have seen coming for several days now. Yea it looks pretty ugly in the LR but the GFS has had a different solution in the LR with every run it seems. As for this storm next week a fun thread to reread is the first thread on the Christmas storm of 2010 and how jumpy the models were then from about the same time range. Granted not the same but you can see how far things turned in the 7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think the GFS is suppressing the low a tad too much. confluence would surely deepen the low further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Exactly why I hope we can get something out of this system at the beginning of the new year. We better take what we can when we can. People are looking at models showing something big in mid and late January and we don't even know what's going to happen a week from now. I would hate to put our hopes on something else coming later. Brick, Of all your posts this is the most sensible post you have ever written. No points for :WOTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the bad news is there is virtually no arctic air in the US after the day 6 storm departs. It's very mild in the extended, which I think we have seen coming for several days now. Yes. If we could get the possible storm to work out for us, I will take early to mid month warm-up before a strong winter pattern the last ten days of January into early February. CFSv2 are showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the bad news is there is virtually no arctic air in the US after the day 6 storm departs. It's very mild in the extended, which I think we have seen coming for several days now. I agree, it looks like this is our best shot until at least mid Jan. The AO, NAO, and PNA will all be bad (for us wanting cold) until at least mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Some of Robert's thoughts since he doesn't post much here: WxSouth @WxSouth CFSv2 Has historic Winter Storm look mid and late January in Southeast to MidAtlantic. Locks hard core Winter pattern into February as well WxSouth @WxSouth GFS trending colder next week. Split flow west coast, Gulf Low develops. Big Arctic High presses south thru Plains to East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Very promising t see that high in the lakes show up this run, the gfs may be sniffing it out and hopefully it will trend stronger. Like burger said, even the 2010 xmas storm was modeled similar to this run as it suppressed it big time. I love the suppressed look the gfs has right now, let the trends come our way in the days to come. And I agree with brick, i think it is a little silly to be talking about how there is a historic winter storm look in the long range. The models are horrible even 5 days out much less 15, let's worry about our 7 day threat first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 12z GFS is a step in the right direction, but I think it's also a misleading one to some extent. If the low were any stronger on this run, the increased WAA would still result in a predominantly all rain event across the southeast. The cold air is from KY/VA northward, so what we really need to see is our high build in stronger, faster, and further south allowing the true Arctic air to push into the southeast. However, if the H5 ridge is anywhere near as strong as modeled, I don't know if that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 interesting situation developing tonight for a brief period of sleet or snow for a few folks (rain for others) in Western NC before some dynamic warming overwhelms the column from the top-down as the warm layer is pulled down with the heavy precip rates... especially interesting around the Balsam Mtns southwest of Asheville, Weaverville and Marion... *edit: seen this situation under-forecast many times with a weak low, but if precip rates get too heavy then rain will overcome the cold layer quicker than what has been shown on 6z and 12z panels for this evening and tonight as the warm layer is drawn to the surface... regardless, it will be fun to watch this and see what transpires since now-casting is less stressful or less schizophrenic than long-range stuff with the flip in the AO forecast for early January, next month may not look as promising if the long-range is taken at face value on recent runs at least, but then again... it helps to realize that more darkness than daylight is on our side in early January ... hold up, let me take a look at the Euro weeklies and see if those have flipped again... pick up the phone Mr. Bob It's maddening how the GFS wants to string all the energy out next week and keep energy attached (still, close to a bundle with the sub-trop energy and the northern stream)... then you look at the Euro shows it's bias as it tries hard to pull "an Eric Holder" in selling it's soul to Mexico on most runs with the ULL just sitting and spinning over/around Mexico for days... truthfully, we could pick Burger or Bevo to blindfold himself and throw darts at a dart-board with potential January solutions attached to it and have as good of a chance figuring out the upcoming pattern I'm still looking for a true, solid long wave to be implied with consistency. And dart throwing is classified just below my own model output (which I would trust more than what we're seeing right now with the "official" technology). The 12z flashing that pretty High - which we've been screaming to see by the way - is behind the 8 ball. Although it is a welcomed sight, the trends that have danced across scores of GFS frames recently do not help it's cause. That's not to say it is a fluke. I'm sure we'll know soon enough if it's a show stealer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Very promising t see that high in the lakes show up this run, the gfs may be sniffing it out and hopefully it will trend stronger. Like burger said, even the 2010 xmas storm was modeled similar to this run as it suppressed it big time. I love the suppressed look the gfs has right now, let the trends come our way in the days to come. And I agree with brick, i think it is a little silly to be talking about how there is a historic winter storm look in the long range. The models are horrible even 5 days out much less 15, let's worry about our 7 day threat first. See Brick now you have 2 people agreeing with you. WOTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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