FallsLake Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I may be mistaken but IN-SITU CAD typically isn't as strong so when the wedge does show up it can get pushed around so to speak. I'm not too worried at this point. Plenty of time trend either way or to nothing at all. I would prefer to avoid ZR at all costs though. We either need a strong high to the north feeding dry/cold air into the CAD areas or a very cold air mass already in place (for in-situ) to allow for the steady rise in temps as the freezing process occurs. I don't see either right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I may be mistaken but IN-SITU CAD typically isn't as strong so when the wedge does show up it can get pushed around so to speak. I'm not too worried at this point. Plenty of time trend either way or to nothing at all. I would prefer to avoid ZR at all costs though. i dont want freezing rain also, no power is no fun. XD hopefully the 0z does not become a downer again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Love a good zr event. They've been almost non existent in the triad in the last 9 years. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just one of many solutions this Baja special could spit out...wouldn't get too excited as no model knows how this one will turn out yet. Tune in Sunday/Monday for sure. Robert has an excellent write up today on the possibilities on his site. Been a long time since we've seen this type of system so don't expect model agreement anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NWS Blacksburg...FWIW Models are also not giving much help with precipitation type next week. Just about every model in each period has the 850 mb 0c isotherm across some portion of the area. If precipitation does fall next week...it could be rain or snow or even a wintery mix. Based on climatology and the models average position of the 0c isotherm next week...p-type should be snow across the Greenbrier valley and Alleghany Highlands. Rain will be the predominate p-type across northwest NC Piedmont and Southside Virginia. In any case...rainfall/snowfall amounts will be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 some of Allan's tweets tonight: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Euro weeklies tonight show the warm pattern by week 2/3 which takes us to around 1/20. However, cool pattern returns by week 4 (1/21-1/27) Makes sense given probable MJO progression. And next weeks hit or miss Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Still uncertainty with 1/1 to 1/4 potential. Not sure if it comes out in one storm or two pieces. 18z GFS was nice winter storm with part 2. from northern NC northward. Some 18z ENS members similar, others bring out system for one storm which is motly rain for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 00z looks like it might be following 18z albeit a little bit warmer out to 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 our system looks stornger at 132 on 00z than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 00z looks like it might be following 18z albeit a little bit warmer out to 132 Looks like its going to miss the phase....bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 much warmer, no cold in nc like 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Swing and a miss on this run. Even if it took the perfect track there was no cold air to speak of for anyone in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 much warmer, no cold in nc like 18z It was the weak low off the coast not able to pull down cold air, there was a 1030+ HP in the central US and -24 850's over the lakes, a moderate coastal would have done the trick. This phased late, but was not far from a good winter storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Of course as soon as it is OTS it gets cold. @174 the cold air is spilling down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 much warmer, no cold in nc like 18z It's because of those pesky lows that just sit over the great lake region screwing up the confluence up north. They remind me of nats in the summertime. We can't get HP to build into needed position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It was the weak low off the coast not able to pull down cold air, there was a 1030+ HP in the central US and -24 850's over the lakes, a moderate coastal would have done the trick. This phased late, but was not far from a good winter storm IMO. The cold air is certainly there just to our north we need something to transport it. Still something to watch and to see if the Euro comes close this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i think the key to these runs are that the possibility is still there. of course everything has to go perfect, we live in the se. But the players are on the table, just need to keep watching these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Of course as soon as it is OTS it gets cold. @174 the cold air is spilling down. That's a stout cold shot for the SoApps late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just think about how far out this is and how we have all of these shortwaves in both the northern and southern streams...and how the models handle the timing of these features. Agree with others that we remain in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's a stout cold shot for the SoApps late next week. Has teens around Boone. 12z was a bit colder up north. Either way a couple of cold nights are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I mean that cold shot is huge that comes in after the storm, timing is going to be key. this run showed us the cold was there, we just need to tap into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Chiming in on the Euro so people wont have to stay up for the free maps. 00z Euro almost identical to earlier 12z run as far as the Jan 03/04 storm is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 CAE sees some potential... 000 FXUS62 KCAE 280806 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 306 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF TWO QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS APPROACHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. GENERALLY USED A BLEND BETWEEN HPC GUIDANCE AND THE GFS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS. GIVEN THE GFS TRACK OF THE SECOND SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK...SOME POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ISSUES MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. MAY NEED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 6z GFS = Apps Runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's a stout cold shot for the SoApps late next week. yes been then again you've got cold after the storm unless there is a storm showing up for the end of next week. Go Figure. Here we go again, cold after the storm or no storm when the cold shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 6z GFS = Apps Runner Huh? It didn't look like an Apps runner to me at all. The first low on New Years looks to me to be in central AL then it just kind of sheers out. It's that second low behind it that is possibly the big ticket and this was the first run that the timing looked to be about right. It kept a route too far south so by the 3rd it was crossing the FL panhandle and heading OTS. Meanwhile temps for NC were somewhat cold enough on this run aloft. All it needed to so was turn then corner. @105 @108 @159 this is the low coming in behind it Now compared to 00z @165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Would love to see what the CMC is showing in the between panels of 156 and 168 hr 168 850's hr 156 hr 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The subtropical ridge pressing against the polar/arctic trough is going to keep the 850mb freezing line from making its way much into the SE. You can see after the storm skirts by that the arctic front stalls over NC/SC. If it is going to snow, it'll be on the light side along the northern tier of the SE region as these strung out waves streak NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Chiming in on the Euro so people wont have to stay up for the free maps. 00z Euro almost identical to earlier 12z run as far as the Jan 03/04 storm is concerned. One good thing about the Euro is that it was stronger with the low on the 00z but that was really about it. All we need to look for is something to turn the cold air on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Huh? It didn't look like an Apps runner to me at all. The first low on New Years looks to me to be in central AL then it just kind of sheers out. It's that second low behind it that is possibly the big ticket and this was the first run that the timing looked to be about right. It kept a route too far south so by the 3rd it was crossing the FL panhandle and heading OTS. Meanwhile temps for NC were somewhat cold enough on this run aloft. All it needed to so was turn then corner. @105 @108 @159 this is the low coming in behind it Now compared to 00z @165 My bad...I was looking at the initial wave @ 120 and didn't follow the secondary wave @ 144-168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My bad...I was looking at the initial wave @ 120 and didn't follow the secondary wave @ 144-168. Yea that initial wave kind of did a weird split thing where a little lobe went up the apps. As Wow pointed out and has pointed out we need to turn the meat grinder off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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