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January Pattern and Storm Discussion


Cold Rain

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I may be mistaken but IN-SITU CAD typically isn't as strong so when the wedge does show up it can get pushed around so to speak. I'm not too worried at this point. Plenty of time trend either way or to nothing at all. I would prefer to avoid ZR at all costs though.

We either need a strong high to the north feeding dry/cold air into the CAD areas or a very cold air mass already in place (for in-situ) to allow for the steady rise in temps as the freezing process occurs. I don't see either right now.

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I may be mistaken but IN-SITU CAD typically isn't as strong so when the wedge does show up it can get pushed around so to speak. I'm not too worried at this point. Plenty of time trend either way or to nothing at all. I would prefer to avoid ZR at all costs though.

i dont want freezing rain also, no power is no fun. XD hopefully the 0z does not become a downer again :)

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Just one of many solutions this Baja special could spit out...wouldn't get too excited as no model knows how this one will turn out yet. Tune in Sunday/Monday for sure. Robert has an excellent write up today on the possibilities on his site. Been a long time since we've seen this type of system so don't expect model agreement anytime soon.

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NWS Blacksburg...FWIW

Models are also not giving much help with precipitation type next

week. Just about every model in each period has the 850 mb 0c isotherm

across some portion of the area. If precipitation does fall next

week...it could be rain or snow or even a wintery mix. Based on

climatology and the models average position of the 0c isotherm next

week...p-type should be snow across the Greenbrier valley and

Alleghany Highlands. Rain will be the predominate p-type across northwest

NC Piedmont and Southside Virginia. In any case...rainfall/snowfall

amounts will be light.

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some of Allan's tweets tonight:

Allan Huffman@RaleighWx

Euro weeklies tonight show the warm pattern by week 2/3 which takes us to around 1/20. However, cool pattern returns by week 4 (1/21-1/27)

Makes sense given probable MJO progression.

And next weeks hit or miss

Allan Huffman@RaleighWx

Still uncertainty with 1/1 to 1/4 potential. Not sure if it comes out in one storm or two pieces. 18z GFS was nice winter storm with part 2.

from northern NC northward. Some 18z ENS members similar, others bring out system for one storm which is motly rain for NC.

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much warmer, no cold in nc like 18z

It was the weak low off the coast not able to pull down cold air, there was a 1030+ HP in the central US and -24 850's over the lakes, a moderate coastal would have done the trick. This phased late, but was not far from a good winter storm IMO.

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It was the weak low off the coast not able to pull down cold air, there was a 1030+ HP in the central US and -24 850's over the lakes, a moderate coastal would have done the trick. This phased late, but was not far from a good winter storm IMO.

The cold air is certainly there just to our north we need something to transport it. Still something to watch and to see if the Euro comes close this solution.

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CAE sees some potential...

000

FXUS62 KCAE 280806

AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

306 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY

CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF TWO QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS

THAT MAY AFFECT OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST

SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY...WITH

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS APPROACHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO

LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE

GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING. GENERALLY

USED A BLEND BETWEEN HPC GUIDANCE AND THE GFS. MADE SOME MINOR

ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS. GIVEN THE GFS TRACK OF THE SECOND

SYSTEM LATER NEXT WEEK...SOME POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ISSUES MAY

NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE

FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. MAY

NEED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES WITH

FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

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6z GFS = Apps Runner :axe:

Huh? It didn't look like an Apps runner to me at all. The first low on New Years looks to me to be in central AL then it just kind of sheers out. It's that second low behind it that is possibly the big ticket and this was the first run that the timing looked to be about right. It kept a route too far south so by the 3rd it was crossing the FL panhandle and heading OTS. Meanwhile temps for NC were somewhat cold enough on this run aloft. All it needed to so was turn then corner.

@105

zymE5.gif

@108

rMQ7N.gif

@159 this is the low coming in behind it

SvqwI.gif

Now compared to 00z @165

u2WOA.gif

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The subtropical ridge pressing against the polar/arctic trough is going to keep the 850mb freezing line from making its way much into the SE. You can see after the storm skirts by that the arctic front stalls over NC/SC. If it is going to snow, it'll be on the light side along the northern tier of the SE region as these strung out waves streak NE.

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Chiming in on the Euro so people wont have to stay up for the free maps. 00z Euro almost identical to earlier 12z run as far as the Jan 03/04 storm is concerned.

One good thing about the Euro is that it was stronger with the low on the 00z but that was really about it. All we need to look for is something to turn the cold air on.

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Huh? It didn't look like an Apps runner to me at all. The first low on New Years looks to me to be in central AL then it just kind of sheers out. It's that second low behind it that is possibly the big ticket and this was the first run that the timing looked to be about right. It kept a route too far south so by the 3rd it was crossing the FL panhandle and heading OTS. Meanwhile temps for NC were somewhat cold enough on this run aloft. All it needed to so was turn then corner.

@105

zymE5.gif

@108

rMQ7N.gif

@159 this is the low coming in behind it

SvqwI.gif

Now compared to 00z @165

u2WOA.gif

My bad...I was looking at the initial wave @ 120 and didn't follow the secondary wave @ 144-168.

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