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January Pattern and Storm Discussion


Cold Rain

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Long range model watching is going to be fun as the pattern favors cold and wet for the SE. Of course, not all of the storms will produce winter weather...we do live the SE after all, but there's no denying we're heading into a very "interesting" pattern for the next several weeks, if not longer. :santa:

Great to see you posting around here again, always enjoy reading what you have to type!

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Long range model watching is going to be fun as the pattern favors cold and wet for the SE. Of course, not all of the storms will produce winter weather...we do live the SE after all, but there's no denying we're heading into a very "interesting" pattern for the next several weeks, if not longer. :santa:

Yep. We *could* *might* *possibly* *potentially* be headed into a truly memorable period of SE winter weather. Of course, how many times has that been said through the years...:whistle::)

It certainly looks to be a fun ride, as you said.

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Great to see you posting around here again, always enjoy reading what you have to type!

Thanks....I always like reading (trolling) but I rarely chime in. When the wild side of the weather starts to show itself I like to add my 2 cents. There are A LOT of excellent forecasters on this forum and we all can learn from these people.

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Yep. We *could* *might* *possibly* *potentially* be headed into a truly memorable period of SE winter weather. Of course, how many times has that been said through the years... :whistle::)

It certainly looks to be a fun ride, as you said.

I hate when folks use those words to try to forecast something without really forecasting it.

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Some should read the discussion Wes, HM and Don S were having in the main forum regarding the blocking showing up on the models...It is really not as impressive as it looks....

The Euro ens from last night do show more west coast ridging leaning back into Alaska but more of a east based weak -NAO...it is a very long wave length in between and as nrgJeff was saying yesterday it is allowing the weak ridging which is keep us from getting cold. This signal is pronounced in the Euro weeklies so to me...they are showing a similar pattern to now and that is not necessarily beneficial to us at this point...However, it is better than two weeks ago...so at least we are headed in a better direction.

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As we end December and start Jan we have some agreement from the GFS ensembles and the Euro ensembles. Here are the 0z runs from both showing the pattern that we have been looking for. Notice how they both start building an Aleutian low with ridging over Alaska to the pole. Both establish cross polar flow and dislodge the cold that has been building up in Alaska. They both continue to show a strong -ao and a modest west based -nao. This is really a big change from the pattern that was in place last year, and the one that has been in place for Dec

Folks, This pattern is just about as good as it gets for cold/snow in our neck of the woods. All the ingredients are there. I don't see how we can escape this pattern without at least one maybe two events. Good times....enjoy.

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I hate when folks use those words to try to forecast something without really forecasting it.

Hence the term, "forecasting", and not "prophesy", Brick. We love mets, but find little use for weather prophets when it comes time to read the models(tea leaves?). But, yeah, winter is coming this year, it sounds like. Wait, today is the Winter Solstice! YAY!!! :sled:

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Some should read the discussion Wes, HM and Don S were having in the main forum regarding the blocking showing up on the models...It is really not as impressive as it looks....

The Euro ens from last night do show more west coast ridging leaning back into Alaska but more of a east based weak -NAO...it is a very long wave length in between and as nrgJeff was saying yesterday it is allowing the weak ridging which is keep us from getting cold. This signal is pronounced in the Euro weeklies so to me...they are showing a similar pattern to now and that is not necessarily beneficial to us at this point...However, it is better than two weeks ago...so at least we are headed in a better direction.

Thanks for the insight Bob, read over what they were saying though it sounded like Don S on his last post seemed pretty positive about a change to much colder air....we'll just have to see how cold it can get I suppose.

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Thanks for the insight Bob, read over what they were saying though it sounded like Don S on his last post seemed pretty positive about a change to much colder air....we'll just have to see how cold it can get I suppose.

And for the bulk of the country that is true....The Euro weeklies suggest a colder GL and NE but above normal in the southwest, south central and part of the the southeast....It is just a concern I have for us....

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Thanks for the insight Bob, read over what they were saying though it sounded like Don S on his last post seemed pretty positive about a change to much colder air....we'll just have to see how cold it can get I suppose.

I do troll what HM posts and from I have gathered he is essentially calling the -AO we have had for December a "fake" -AO, that's NOT his words, that's just how I interpreted what he said, below is what he just posted for January...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38429-december-2728-storm-threat/page__view__findpost__p__1932134

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And for the bulk of the country that is true....The Euro weeklies suggest a colder GL and NE but above normal in the southwest, south central and part of the the southeast....It is just a concern I have for us....

It's definitely a concern, it's should always be a concern when RDU only averages 7.5" of snow a year, CLT 5.5", ATL 2". More times than not it's not going to be favorable for us.

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And for the bulk of the country that is true....The Euro weeklies suggest a colder GL and NE but above normal in the southwest, south central and part of the the southeast....It is just a concern I have for us....

Gotcha, well at least this winter if we get the old screws put to us I've got my obsession with collecting guitars to turn to.

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It's definitely a concern, it's should always be a concern when RDU only averages 7.5" of snow a year, CLT 5.5", ATL 2". More times than not it's not going to be favorable for us.

:axe: Thanks for the climo lesson...I am pretty sure we all get that. We all know that only a couple of times a year do we get a shot at wintry precip...but we are here to discuss the possibilities since it is a weather forum and that is all most are doing.

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I do troll what HM posts and from I have gathered he is essentially calling the -AO we have had for December a "fake" -AO, that's NOT his words, that's just how I interpreted what he said, below is what he just posted for January...

http://www.americanw...ost__p__1932134

Serious question: I'm still confused as to how a -AO can be "fake". I don't quite understand what HM is explaining, as my zone has obviously benefited from a -AO for much of the year, and that setup did not just materialize on December 1st. How does that work?

You're either pregnant or you're not. There's no grey.

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I do troll what HM posts and from I have gathered he is essentially calling the -AO we have had for December a "fake" -AO, that's NOT his words, that's just how I interpreted what he said, below is what he just posted for January...

http://www.americanw...ost__p__1932134

At some point you would think the -AO would pay off like Brandon has been alluding to...maybe the effects are just really really delayed.

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Serious question: I'm still confused as to how a -AO can be "fake". I don't quite understand what HM is explaining, as my zone has obviously benefited from a -AO for much of the year, and that setup did not just materialize on December 1st. How does that work?

You're either pregnant or you're not. There's no grey.

LOL, most of what he writes is over my head, you would have to read it for yourself. Now, what I stated is just my interpretation, I could definitely be interpreting it wrong. Take a look at NE's Dec 27/28 Storm Thread, great discussion.

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At some point you would think the -AO would pay off like Brandon has been alluding to...maybe the effects are just really really delayed.

Or there will always be something else to screw things up. I really want to be optimistic about the chances from Christmas into January, but then I keep seeing things that could screw it up, too.

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LOL, most of what he writes is over my head, you would have to read it for yourself. Now, what I stated is just my interpretation, I could definitely be interpreting it wrong. Take a look at NE's Dec 27/28 Storm Thread, great discussion.

I did read it. It is entirely possible that I just don't have the capacity to grasp it, I admit.

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I did read it. It is entirely possible that I just don't have the capacity to grasp it, I admit.

From what I understood was he was basically saying that we may need to change how much we think a -AO actually effects teleconnections or at least how we measure the -AO in terms of effecting things? He didn't really give much explanation for those of us with out years of schooling in meteorological science.

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I think the bottom line is that in the majority of cases, a -AO/-NAO combo is going to be cold east of the Rockies...but there are going to be cases where it doesn't work out that way for various reasons...could be that the Pacific is terrible, or there is abundant high-latitude blocking, but there has yet to be any cold air masses pushed south in the U.S. and the cold air is elsewhere in the N Hemisphere (Russia has been in the freezer lately)

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From what I understood was he was basically saying that we may need to change how much we think a -AO actually effects teleconnections or at least how we measure the -AO in terms of effecting things? He didn't really give much explanation for those of us with out years of schooling in meteorological science.

If that was his intention, I can actually somewhat agree. However, It is still not apples to apples as far as last winter is concerned. There was practically no AO/NAO cooperation. That is a major difference right now, and one that is probably causing some of the ado in guidance (in my opinion). One thing that remains painful is the fast PAC flow. I do not believe models can guess around it well enough downstream until it slows a bit. Again, that is my opinion.

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