packfan98 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Really? I glanced at them at 192 and thought I saw 4 out of 12 members. I bet 12z has a few, I hope... Well, it seems you were correct that 4 members showed some snow on the ground outside of the mountains on hr 192. I only looked at the surface map charts and it seemed to me that only one would have actually produced snow and that happens at hr 126. Other members had snow at hour 162 and 180, but based on the 850 temps they looked like they would not support snow to me (possible CAD setup?). Not trying to split hairs here, just trying to say that there is a ton of spread and individual members were keying on different pieces of energy which resulted in a ensemble mean look that may be misleading. Lets hope that the reality will produce some winter weather for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yes, but the NAO hold more neutral. Still hurts a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Some significant changes with the 12z Euro I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 That ridge west of Spain teleconnects to a SE Ridge so that explains why our low is unable to traverse eastward and ends up getting put in the meat grinder. Only way to get snow out of that kind of pattern is a strong 50/50 vortex and overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 That ridge west of Spain teleconnects to a SE Ridge so that explains why our low is unable to traverse eastward and ends up getting put in the meat grinder. Only way to get snow out of that kind of pattern is a strong 50/50 vortex and overrunning precip. Your a lot smarter than me, but this isn't a bad look, get the trough a little more vertical and I think this could produce. I added the 12z GEFS below it, no good? Day 7 12z Euro Day 7 12z GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 New years storm is probably gonna be all rain for charlotte. the global models still hovering around 5C in the warm layer, with warm advection to top it off. i hope im wrong, but a rain solution is looking more and more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Your a lot smarter than me, but this isn't a bad look, get the trough a little more vertical and I think this could produce. I added the 12z GEFS below it, no good? The problem is getting the trough to reach a neutral tilt. The wave pattern across the polar region is favorable but across the subtropical zone it is wanting to build a SE ridge so it tightens the jet over our region. Polar jet wants to come down, STJ wants to come up... meat grinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The problem is getting the trough to reach a neutral tilt. The wave pattern across the polar region is favorable but across the subtropical zone it is wanting to build a SE ridge so it tightens the jet over our region. Polar jet wants to come down, STJ wants to come up... meat grinder. I think I remember in years past that a pv over SE canada and a persistent SE ridge was a recipe for ice in the upper south/lower mid atlantic. Anyone else remember this from years past? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 "Your a lot smarter than me, but this isn't a bad look, get the trough a little more vertical and I think this could produce. I added the 12z GEFS below it, no good?" Simply put, those looks will shear every low to pieces as it comes east...............unfortunately. Anything we do get would be pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think I remember in years past that a pv over SE canada and a persistent SE ridge was a recipe for ice in the upper south/lower mid atlantic. Anyone else remember this from years past? TW If you have a deep enough cold dome in place and an active STJ, then as long as enough energy in the STJ survives to create lift, then ice would be a concern. I feel like the models will trend toward a better cold air feed, and with the active STJ in place, I think we have a legit shot here. We're still several days away, and the idea that the models have it right at this point is probably not a good one. The bottom line is that a thread explosion is not imminent, a Thread Explosion Watch remains in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think I remember in years past that a pv over SE canada and a persistent SE ridge was a recipe for ice in the upper south/lower mid atlantic. Anyone else remember this from years past? TW Yes, if enough confluence (high pressure) builds overhead. You can either incur an ice event if the low wind up heading west of us before transferring to the coast or get an overrunning snow event with a positive tilted trough feeding moisture over a significant cold pool of air in place, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Greenville, SC (GSP) NWS Afternoon Discussion: POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS RESULTED IN POOR FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A POSITIVE TILTED H5 TROF WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WILL TIME A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SW MAY OPEN AND SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE NRN GULF COAST. THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT AGAIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH. I WILL HANDLE THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO...KEEP SKY COVER AROUND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND MAINTAIN CHC POPS. DUE TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES...PRECIP FORECAST WILL INDICATE -RA DURING THE DAY WITH MTN -SN AT NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Greenville, SC (GSP) NWS Afternoon Discussion: POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS RESULTED IN POOR FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A POSITIVE TILTED H5 TROF WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WILL TIME A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SW MAY OPEN AND SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE NRN GULF COAST. THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT AGAIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH. I WILL HANDLE THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO...KEEP SKY COVER AROUND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND MAINTAIN CHC POPS. DUE TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES...PRECIP FORECAST WILL INDICATE -RA DURING THE DAY WITH MTN -SN AT NIGHT. Nice! RAH is never as optimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z GFS could be bombtastic, although it seems the 18z is always a weenie run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z GFS could be bombtastic, although it seems the 18z is always a weenie run... This looks sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This looks sexy Not a bad run, the HP slides off the east coast which makes NC warm up, but still the potential is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like insitu cad through at least hour 168 Not a bad run, the HP slides off the east coast which makes NC warm up, but still the potential is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like insitu cad through at least hour 168 through 174 it's still below freezing in the northern part of the state. Verbatim this is a big winter storm for NC especially the northern half, supports snow to ice. And atleast 0.50- 0.75 qpf while below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Shift it south a 100 miles and I will be happy.... This is a day 7.5 snowfall map, this might belong in the banter thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Shift it south a 100 miles and I will be happy.... This is a day 7.5 snowfall map, this might belong in the banter thread... I think we need these maps more. keeps morale up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Extracted data shows what could be a nasty ice storm for the CLT area on this run. However, you have to wonder without a damming high to the north(and quite frankly not a really cold source airmass) how long a freezing rain event could last before it turned into 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 well that just did a 180 That's a ALL snow sounding for Mooresvile, NC :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Extracted data shows what could be a nasty ice storm for the CLT area on this run. However, you have to wonder without a damming high to the north(and quite frankly not a really cold source airmass) how long a freezing rain event could last before it turned into 33 and rain. Yep looked like ZR through the bulk of it...of course we're on that edge of freezing at the sfc...it's look like verbatim it would be possible in that 33 - 34 range....I would prefer to stay away from the ZR please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yet another wild swing of the models. Euro looks nothing like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 really wondering why the temp would rise(charlotte) given the location of the fronts and the low. does not make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yet another wild swing of the models. Euro looks nothing like this. I love the run (18z GFS) but I think we should consider this an outlier until other models join in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 really wondering why the temp would rise(charlotte) given the location of the fronts and the low. does not make sense. We need to make sure we have a cold air source. Otherwise any freezing rain would quickly push the temp above freezing (33 & rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We need to make sure we have a cold air source. Otherwise any freezing rain would quickly push the temp above freezing (33 & rain). figured out why. that's during the day when temps naturally rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 figured out why. that's during the day when temps naturally rise. I may be mistaken but IN-SITU CAD typically isn't as strong so when the wedge does show up it can get pushed around so to speak. I'm not too worried at this point. Plenty of time trend either way or to nothing at all. I would prefer to avoid ZR at all costs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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