burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Are you referring to the EPS control run on accuweather? I didn't think accuweather has the Euro ensembles. I believe the EPS control run of the ensembles are not the actual ensembles, but I could be wrong. I thought the EPS Control Run was basically the ENS mean? If not...whoops my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I thought the EPS Control Run was basically the ENS mean? If not...whoops my bad. EPS stands for Ensemble Prediction System, right? Isn't that the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 EPS stands for Ensemble Prediction System, right? Isn't that the same thing? EPS is the same as ensemble mean. So yes. Idk what the control run is considering the mean is made up of 51 members including the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 EPS is the same as ensemble mean. So yes. Idk what the control run is considering the mean is made up of 51 members including the op. The control run is normally run with the exact same initial conditions as the operational run, but the control run is computed against a lower resolution. So, this sounds like the Euro Control run, which would be one of the 51 ensemble members (with the Euro Operational run also being 1 of the 51 ensemble members)...but I don't know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The control run is normally run with the exact same initial conditions as the operational run, but the control run is computed with a lower resolution. So, this sounds like the Euro Control run, which would be one of the 51 ensemble members...but I don't know for sure. Correct, it's the control run, one of the members of the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well on the surface 12z is warmer than the 00z run of the GFS. Last night it had the 850 line running roughly across I-40 this one at @126 has it just above the border in VA and just slightly dips into the far NW corner of TN. It does look like the low is a tad bit stronger on this run though as it treks along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The day 6 differences between the Euro and GFS are amazing, 0z euro has 2 contour closed low just west of Texas that rots there and GFS has strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 big changes at 500mb on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Here was the Ukie from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS says, "nothing to see here". Not cold enough anywhere in the SE an no real moisture to speak of north of ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Major arctic air spilling into the heartland on this run. That is a lot of cold air in Canada around hour 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 PV sets up over SE Canada this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 @189 there are 2m temps at -10 in upstate NY. As well as in most of Michigan. Toronto is in the -20 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I've seen a few mets mention places could see their coldest readings since 2010-2011, with this cold surge. Mainly east coast cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I've seen a few mets mention places could see their coldest readings since 2010-2011, with this cold surge. Mainly east coast cities. Well if you like cold you'll be licking your chops at this run. It kind of moderates after 192 due to truncation. Even still though at least for NC until 240 it keeps it cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like some serious cold spilling in at 180. By where's our LP in response? Nothing like dry cold to kill some weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 From above, the overall wave pattern setup during the Jan 3-5 storm looks impressive. If the southern energy were modeled a bit more cohesively and not overplay the SE ridge shearing it apart, this would show a heck of a storm here. There are so many little shortwaves flying through the field it's difficult to model, but just as difficult to really develop a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I've seen a few mets mention places could see their coldest readings since 2010-2011, with this cold surge. Mainly east coast cities. Met hype. Think about last winter. Not hard to top that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm liking the H5. If that works out, some folks in the SE outside of the mountains will see some snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 11AM HPC Discussion... BY DAY 4 THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST IS OUR FOCUS. THE 00Z GFS BECAME FAST AND FLAT...AND WE DROP IT BY DAY 4. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS BETTER UNTIL DAY 6...WHEN ITS PERFORMANCE IS MORE QUESTIONABLE UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH SPLIT FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WOULD FAVOR A MORE SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STORM TRACK THAN IS SEEN IN THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO PRODUCE PROGRESSIVE...STRONGER SYSTEMS IN A CONSOLIDATED FLOW STREAM APPROACHING CALIFORNIA BY DAY 6/7. THUS...WE TURNED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH SHOW THIS SUPPRESSED LOOK...AND WE PREFERRED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND NAEFS...AS THE GEFS SHOWED SOME OF THE PROGRESSIVE BIAS OF THE GFS. ...IMPACTS... THE BLOCKY RIDGE/TROUGH COMBINATION OVER THE WEST, COMBINED WITH THE SUPPRESSED POLAR JET OVER THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD, HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR ALL BUT THE GULF COAST STATES, WHERE WAVES ALONG THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP GULF MOISTURE AS THEY RIPPLE EASTWARD. HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION GETS WITH THESE WAVES IS DEPENDENT UPON WHERE THE CONFLUENCE RESIDES BETWEEN THE SPLIT STREAMS. THE TELECONNECTIONS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB DEPICTING THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE REGIME...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR THAT SLIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME TELECONNECTIONS WOULD SUGGEST LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCE INLAND OF THE GULF COAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN POPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, CAROLINAS, AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH AT FIRST GLANCE APPEAR HIGH FOR REGIONS ESSENTIALLY DOMINATED BY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We tend to do well with a PV in SE canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 From above, the overall wave pattern setup during the Jan 3-5 storm looks impressive. If the southern energy were modeled a bit more cohesively and not overplay the SE ridge shearing it apart, this would show a heck of a storm here. There are so many little shortwaves flying through the field it's difficult to model, but just as difficult to really develop a good storm. We won't have to worry about cutters with that look, question is would the supress to much and not allow amplification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 11AM HPC Discussion... BY DAY 4 THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST IS OUR FOCUS. THE 00Z GFS BECAME FAST AND FLAT...AND WE DROP IT BY DAY 4. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS BETTER UNTIL DAY 6...WHEN ITS PERFORMANCE IS MORE QUESTIONABLE UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH SPLIT FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A PERSISTENT NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WOULD FAVOR A MORE SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STORM TRACK THAN IS SEEN IN THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO PRODUCE PROGRESSIVE...STRONGER SYSTEMS IN A CONSOLIDATED FLOW STREAM APPROACHING CALIFORNIA BY DAY 6/7. THUS...WE TURNED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH SHOW THIS SUPPRESSED LOOK...AND WE PREFERRED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND NAEFS...AS THE GEFS SHOWED SOME OF THE PROGRESSIVE BIAS OF THE GFS. ...IMPACTS... THE BLOCKY RIDGE/TROUGH COMBINATION OVER THE WEST, COMBINED WITH THE SUPPRESSED POLAR JET OVER THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD, HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR ALL BUT THE GULF COAST STATES, WHERE WAVES ALONG THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP GULF MOISTURE AS THEY RIPPLE EASTWARD. HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION GETS WITH THESE WAVES IS DEPENDENT UPON WHERE THE CONFLUENCE RESIDES BETWEEN THE SPLIT STREAMS. THE TELECONNECTIONS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB DEPICTING THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE REGIME...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE ARCTIC AIR THAT SLIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME TELECONNECTIONS WOULD SUGGEST LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCE INLAND OF THE GULF COAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN POPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, CAROLINAS, AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH AT FIRST GLANCE APPEAR HIGH FOR REGIONS ESSENTIALLY DOMINATED BY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. The last sentence doesn't sound real positive or am I misreading that? Sounds like they are saying precip will be hard to come by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The last sentence doesn't sound real positive or am I misreading that? Sounds like they are saying precip will be hard to come by? It does, but it also sounds like they are going with the cold pressing a little farther south - the cold air is the much bigger concern to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It does, but it also sounds like they are going with the cold pressing a little farther south - the cold air is the much bigger concern to me. Agreed. The way it reads implies that those regions would be predominantly influenced by polar air (dry). Please correct me if I am wrong. Timing seems too early for there to be a correlation between the pressing polar air and forecasted strat warming though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Today's 12z GFS strat run is close to what is was showing about a week ago.It splits the PV around day 9/10 and drives a piece down into the Hudson Bay/SE Canada area. Strong warming going over the top of it into the Arctic circle,N.Canada,and most of Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Not bad for the 12z GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Not bad for the 12z GEFS... The 6z GEFS was similar but it only looked that way because the individual members were all over the place with timing (some were much slower than the others) and track (some were app runners). I don't believe even one member had snow outside of the mountains. We'll see what the 12z looks like in a bit. Looks to be a strung out mess if my suspicions are correct. We have definitely had a pattern change to a more active and wetter one. Now we need the cold air to get with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The 6z GEFS was similar but it only looked that way because the individual members were all over the place with timing (some were much slower than the others) and track (some were app runners). I don't believe even one member had snow outside of the mountains. We'll see what the 12z looks like in a bit. Looks to be a strung out mess if my suspicions are correct. We have definitely had a pattern change to a more active and wetter one. Now we need the cold air to get with it! Really? I glanced at them at 192 and thought I saw 4 out of 12 members. I bet 12z has a few, I hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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