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January Pattern and Storm Discussion


Cold Rain

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Is that a triple phaser potential showing up on the GFS at 168?

No, not in the sense that you're thinking here.

The sub-tropical wave is strung out and sheared to bits to there is no developed negatively tilted trough to allow the polar/arctic energy to phase into.

See 93 Superstorm for reference

4c7CX.gif

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No need to worry about what falls where as of right now. This was a big step in the right direction. Hopefully the Euro picks up on this and follows the trend.

just curious. what are the models trending towards to give us a good solution? I heard it was the separation of the streams, but im not sure.

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No, not in the sense that you're thinking here.

The sub-tropical wave is strung out and sheared to bits to there is no developed negatively tilted trough to allow the polar/arctic energy to phase into.

See 93 Superstorm for reference

4c7CX.gif

Thanks Wow! If we had a stronger southern energy that did develop into a neg. trough, you would have the norther stream dropping down and the arctic energy...

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just curious. what are the models trending towards to give us a good solution? I heard it was the separation of the streams, but im not sure.

A few things as others have mentioned....colder air coming in from the north.. separation of streams added with the general bias of the GFS so you get what theoretically is a good setup. Only time will tell though but the GFS ENS mean should be telling tonight if this really is a trend or just a hiccup.

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Something tells me this run is on crack. @196 you have like 5 ULL out west in US and one in Canada. 850 line runs pretty much the northern 3rd of the US from around Montana to southern Michigan to northern VA.

Canadian was wacky out west too. It sent a wave out early (too warm), then several other waves danced around in the southwest

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Euro evolution is very similar to GFS Ensemble Mean. It had a 2nd wave diving quickly into the Great Lakes at days 6-7 which prevented the setup of a sprawling high pressure over the midwest, so it was warmer. You can see the pesky low just north of New York state. Good runs tonight, but will we have enough low level cold air??

day7w.png

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Euro evolution is very similar to GFS Ensemble Mean. It had a 2nd wave diving quickly into the Great Lakes at days 6-7 which prevented the setup of a sprawling high pressure over the midwest, so it was warmer. You can see the pesky low just north of New York state. Good runs tonight, but will we have enough low level cold air??

Seriously watch in amazement as those pieces out west don't move at all for pretty much the rest of the run. Time for me to go to bed. On to 12z.

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Just looked at the 0z Euro vorticity, at 144-156 I thought the southern vort was going to eject as the northern stream was coming down and looking to phase but it didn't. We are still 7 days out and it nailed the last storm at 5 days and this weekends storm has the track down at day 5. It looks like the GFS is trending more towards the Euro track for this weekend. So I think we will know by this weekend whether we got something to work with.

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Euro ENS from last night looked much better with the 3rd and 4th storm. More south and colder. Has a swath of snow roughly from ATL up to CLT and points NW.

Are you referring to the EPS control run on accuweather? I didn't think accuweather has the Euro ensembles. I believe the EPS control run of the ensembles are not the actual ensembles, but I could be wrong.

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Map below is from the Feb 12, 2010 storm that brought mod-heavy snow deep into SC and in E NC. The 500mb pattern over the U.S. is quite similar to last night's (00z) GFS and Euro Ensemble means at hr168, with a modest wave in Texas and confluent flow over the Tennessee Valley. Also, you notice that there's no strong high pressure over the Great Lakes...in fact, there are a couple of weak lows in the eastern U.S...but the big difference is that prior to this storm, the cold air had been deposited from Canada and was well entrenched (with lower heights farther south). We haven't had a single arctic boundary work into the south so far this winter to my knowledge...all of our modest cold shots have come from strong fronts passing on mainly west to east Pacific flow.

feb2010.png

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