Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Is that a triple phaser potential showing up on the GFS at 168? No, not in the sense that you're thinking here. The sub-tropical wave is strung out and sheared to bits to there is no developed negatively tilted trough to allow the polar/arctic energy to phase into. See 93 Superstorm for reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 So this looking like a carolina threat vs southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 So this looking like a carolina threat vs southeast? North Carolina...roughly along I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Is there an echo in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 and the system after the New Years storm has gone *POOF*, oh well I'll trade it if we can keep it trending colder with some precip coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 North Carolina...roughly along I-40. not even. this was west of winston salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No need to worry about what falls where as of right now. This was a big step in the right direction. Hopefully the Euro picks up on this and follows the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No need to worry about what falls where as of right now. This was a big step in the right direction. Hopefully the Euro picks up on this and follows the trend. just curious. what are the models trending towards to give us a good solution? I heard it was the separation of the streams, but im not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No, not in the sense that you're thinking here. The sub-tropical wave is strung out and sheared to bits to there is no developed negatively tilted trough to allow the polar/arctic energy to phase into. See 93 Superstorm for reference Thanks Wow! If we had a stronger southern energy that did develop into a neg. trough, you would have the norther stream dropping down and the arctic energy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 just curious. what are the models trending towards to give us a good solution? I heard it was the separation of the streams, but im not sure. A few things as others have mentioned....colder air coming in from the north.. separation of streams added with the general bias of the GFS so you get what theoretically is a good setup. Only time will tell though but the GFS ENS mean should be telling tonight if this really is a trend or just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 My takeaway from the 00z GFS is that I saw 2 +PNA spikes lead to 2 shortwaves rolling through the Great Lakes, dragging 2 shots of cold air into the SE...along with the prescence of a southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is the best look I've seen from the GFS Ensemble Mean...cold front moves through the SE at hr120-132, then southwest low is kicked east into Texas at hr168. 50-50 / Newfoundland low with ridging in SW Canada and to its E/NE preventing it from sliding out quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Also looks like the Euro is being more progressive with the energy out west. Out to 108. We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro is a good 30 hours faster with that storm around the 3rd @144 a descent low is forming around Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 @180 the low is getting weak and temps are coming down with moisture slowly making it's way into the Carolinas. By 186 temps go up as moisture comes in. lol at the ULL out in TX...that thing is a monster on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Something tells me this run is on crack. @196 you have like 5 ULL out west in US and one in Canada. 850 line runs pretty much the northern 3rd of the US from around Montana to southern Michigan to northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Something tells me this run is on crack. @196 you have like 5 ULL out west in US and one in Canada. 850 line runs pretty much the northern 3rd of the US from around Montana to southern Michigan to northern VA. Canadian was wacky out west too. It sent a wave out early (too warm), then several other waves danced around in the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Canadian was wacky out west too. It sent a wave out early (too warm), then several other waves danced around in the southwest This run is just . On the surface it's looking all kinds of whacky. Models are really struggling. Glad I stayed up to see this train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro evolution is very similar to GFS Ensemble Mean. It had a 2nd wave diving quickly into the Great Lakes at days 6-7 which prevented the setup of a sprawling high pressure over the midwest, so it was warmer. You can see the pesky low just north of New York state. Good runs tonight, but will we have enough low level cold air?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro evolution is very similar to GFS Ensemble Mean. It had a 2nd wave diving quickly into the Great Lakes at days 6-7 which prevented the setup of a sprawling high pressure over the midwest, so it was warmer. You can see the pesky low just north of New York state. Good runs tonight, but will we have enough low level cold air?? Seriously watch in amazement as those pieces out west don't move at all for pretty much the rest of the run. Time for me to go to bed. On to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Seriously watch in amazement as those pieces out west don't move at all for pretty much the rest of the run. Time for me to go to bed. On to 12z. A good portion of the northern half of Texas has snow falling from 150-180 on that run as a low apparently just sits there churning out snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I am really worried about most of the month of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Just looked at the 0z Euro vorticity, at 144-156 I thought the southern vort was going to eject as the northern stream was coming down and looking to phase but it didn't. We are still 7 days out and it nailed the last storm at 5 days and this weekends storm has the track down at day 5. It looks like the GFS is trending more towards the Euro track for this weekend. So I think we will know by this weekend whether we got something to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro ENS from last night looked much better with the 3rd and 4th storm. More south and colder. Has a swath of snow roughly from ATL up to CLT and points NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro ENS from last night looked much better with the 3rd and 4th storm. More south and colder. Has a swath of snow roughly from ATL up to CLT and points NW. Are you referring to the EPS control run on accuweather? I didn't think accuweather has the Euro ensembles. I believe the EPS control run of the ensembles are not the actual ensembles, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ECMWF has a forecasted SSW on day 9 today,have to see where the debris PV's and blocking sets up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAO goes slightly negative per the Euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 JB tweeted this. Major strat warming underway....(precursor to NAM cold) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's really looking like a chance at a big storm won't come until late Jan/Mid Feb range. That's not unusual though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Map below is from the Feb 12, 2010 storm that brought mod-heavy snow deep into SC and in E NC. The 500mb pattern over the U.S. is quite similar to last night's (00z) GFS and Euro Ensemble means at hr168, with a modest wave in Texas and confluent flow over the Tennessee Valley. Also, you notice that there's no strong high pressure over the Great Lakes...in fact, there are a couple of weak lows in the eastern U.S...but the big difference is that prior to this storm, the cold air had been deposited from Canada and was well entrenched (with lower heights farther south). We haven't had a single arctic boundary work into the south so far this winter to my knowledge...all of our modest cold shots have come from strong fronts passing on mainly west to east Pacific flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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