Snow86 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 are you really relying on model temp forecasts THAT far ahead? just curious, did you know that model verification scores are plummeting for projections 5+days out? Again, the synoptic pattern should only be noted now. If you're looking at 850mb temperatures are you not doing the same thing? At least partial thicknesses is an average over a layer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 what? 850mb is below the ground in some parts of the mountains depending on their height. If it's not below it, it's near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If you're looking at 850mb temperatures are you not doing the same thing? At least partial thicknesses is an average over a layer! Did you not see me post that skew t? Im looking at trends and advection to see if they align with the sfc low on the models. Nowhere did i say anything ab out the 850 line. are you trolling? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I really could not disagree more. I often see on here something along these lines: "Discount the surface temperature forecast, it's not accurate 9-10 days out." 850mb is also a surface - a pressure surface at one level just like the surface temperature is. Partial thicknesses looks at the layer average, sort of like an ensemble if you will. I am somewhat assuming that surface temps will be in the ballpark of supporting snow. But again, we're talking specifics about something over a week away, which is suspect to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am somewhat assuming that surface temps will be in the ballpark of supporting snow. But again, we're talking specifics about something over a week away, which is suspect to begin with. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 ugh temp just need to go down 4 more C then we might be in business. 12z sat for charlotte. .92in of precipitable water, warm advection noted. This sounding is wayyyy too warm! That 800mb temp is almost 43F - and it's saturated so there's no evaporational cooling to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 850mb is below the ground in some parts of the mountains depending on their height. If it's not below it, it's near it. lol, 98% of folks that live in the mtns live below 5000ft. Now if you live in the mtns almost 95% of the time you have 850 temps at 0cthe then it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Too bad snow86 is banned this could all be solved by just telling him how thickness is good enough for snow @192 when the bulk of the precip is there. 540 line runs roughly from CLT to RDU north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Too bad snow86 is banned this could all be solved by just telling him how thickness is good enough for snow @192 when the bulk of the precip is there. 540 line runs roughly from CLT to RDU north. Burger FTW! This from the 18Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Too bad snow86 is banned this could all be solved by just telling him how thickness is good enough for snow @192 when the bulk of the precip is there. 540 line runs roughly from CLT to RDU north. didnt even notice that. haha the 18z was colder than 12z i noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Burger FTW! This from the 18Z? Yea I'm kind of surprised more folks weren't discussing it. While it wasn't a total home run it was close enough truncation kind of causes some havoc on it. Due to the 12 hour switch over it's also hard to tell if it's cold chasing moisture but Accupro maps with a 10:1 ratio had snow across all of NC. Other maps with lower ratios just had it on the northern fringes. Either way 18z was a good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yea I'm kind of surprised more folks weren't discussing it. While it wasn't a total home run it was close enough truncation kind of causes some havoc on it. Due to the 12 hour switch over it's also hard to tell if it's cold chasing moisture but Accupro maps with a 10:1 ratio had snow across all of NC. Other maps with lower ratios just had it on the northern fringes. Either way 18z was a good step. Overall this setup is extremely good aloft. It's hard to find a better setup on a 500mb map than what the euro is printing out here, but the timing like always is important. In a few days when we see some consistency on the ejection of the stj shortwave, we'll be able to get a real feel for what's to come. The timing all revolves around the 50/50 low and if it's present while the STJ is heading towards the east. That will determine how much cold air is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The feature that I continue to believe is key with this setup is the strengthening Aleutian Low and +PNA spike in W/NW Canada in hours 60-96 that sends a northern stream wave through the Great Lakes in hours 120-144...which drags a cold front into the southeast. The ensembles have been showing this setup for days on end now...but it remains to be seen how strong of a push south we will see with the cold air...if persistence holds, the +PNA will be muted, and it won't get enough push south with the northern stream feature....and then obviously, you would want to see the precip eject out of Texas after that cold front has moved thru the SE. The 18z GEFS loop shows this evolution well - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Overall this setup is extremely good aloft. It's hard to find a better setup on a 500mb map than what the euro is printing out here, but the timing like always is important. In a few days when we see some consistency on the ejection of the stj shortwave, we'll be able to get a real feel for what's to come. The timing all revolves around the 50/50 low and if it's present while the STJ is heading towards the east. That will determine how much cold air is around. I've noticed on the GFS there is tons of energy flying around....do we want the energy up north to phase with the s/w coming in from the west? I was under the impression that needed to happen in order to get the low to lift. Is the phasing really that important? Granted I realize talking about phasing pieces of energy now is like talking about which powerball numbers are better to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The feature that I continue to believe is key with this setup is the strengthening Aleutian Low and +PNA spike in W/NW Canada in hours 60-96 that sends a northern stream wave through the Great Lakes in hours 120-144...which drags a cold front into the southeast. The ensembles have been showing this setup for days on end now...but it remains to be seen how strong of a push south we will see with the cold air...if persistence holds, the +PNA will be muted, and it won't get enough push south with the northern stream feature....and then obviously, you would want to see the precip eject out of Texas after that cold front has moved thru the SE. The 18z GEFS loop shows this evolution well - http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html It can be weather blasphemy to compare fantasy model runs to past greats, but I can't help get this map out of my mind when I see the Euro extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It can be weather blasphemy to compare fantasy model runs to past greats, but I can't help get this map out of my mind when I see the Euro extended. and look what that setup produced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I've noticed on the GFS there is tons of energy flying around....do we want the energy up north to phase with the s/w coming in from the west? I was under the impression that needed to happen in order to get the low to lift. Is the phasing really that important? Granted I realize talking about phasing pieces of energy now is like talking about which powerball numbers are better to play. It depends on what type of storm you want. If you want a big SECS then you should root for a big phase, if you want a southern slider then keeping the streams seperate would be better. Either way, you will need a 50/50 low to impart some type of CAD and cold air at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It depends on what type of storm you want. If you want a big SECS then you should root for a big phase, if you want a southern slider then keeping the streams seperate would be better. Either way, you will need a 50/50 low to impart some type of CAD and cold air at the surface. Exactly. The 18 z was showing good snows in eastern KY. Somehow I think it's likely for the next snow to be slightly east of the last band. I think TN may get in on some snow, but only close to KY. This next storm looks similar to the last one, but with more moisture in front than behind it. So, unless things change I don't see heavy snow on the backside yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 00z is considerably colder with next weeks storm than 12z. Still not cold enough yet out to 135 but let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Folks, I think we finally got a storm to follow...at least for the North Carolina crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Folks, I think we finally got a storm to follow... lookin good. the pattern this go around looks more amplified......spoke too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 00z is considerably colder with next weeks storm than 12z. Still not cold enough yet out to 135 but let's see where she goes. Looks like the southern stream energy is considerably weaker this run, compared to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Folks, I think we finally got a storm to follow...at least for the North Carolina crowd. per the 0z? Not really, the entire trough is sheared away along the frontal boundary. Basically a ho-hum rainstorm along the gulf states. I don't buy it since the GFS has always had issues with stream separation just as the Euro has its problem holding energy back over the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Folks, I think we finally got a storm to follow...at least for the North Carolina crowd. Agreed, the gfs and euro are both displaying bias here. Euro holding this back way too long and the gfs shearing it out too fast. You pick a compromise scenario and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is much colder. We just need that southern system to trend stronger this is a really good look though for NC folks. @162 it might be light snow or at least flurries in RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 warm advection again for KCLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Agreed, the gfs and euro are both displaying bias here. Euro holding this back way too long and the gfs shearing it out too fast. You pick a compromise scenario and we're in business. Is there an echo in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is much colder. We just need that southern system to trend stronger this is a really good look though for NC folks. @162 it might be light snow or at least flurries in RDU. Yeah...the air in the Great Lakes region is much colder than previous runs. I like where we're heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Is that a triple phaser potential showing up on the GFS at 168? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Is that a triple phaser potential showing up on the GFS at 168? No...I don't think that happens. However there is a pretty good boundary that sets up along I-95 at 174. Any secondary development would make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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