dsaur Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I guess its a good thing you dont put out a forecast seeing as how you change your mind everyday. 12z gfs holding back energy.....still like the look. ensembles will be interesting Lol, Larry is one of our best in the SE at reading the tea leaves. When he hones in on a storm that might give, you'll know it, loud and clear. He predicted snow in Savannah, a few years back, I repeat Savannah (not the frozen tundra,ever), and nailed it. Right now he is just goofing with goofy, and having fun...but it is never all play with him, and always something to be learned, if one listens. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I don't think the pattern is looking too bad right now. Granted the models are all over the place, so I'm not sure what to go with. Either way, the Canadian air is lurking and there is an active moisture filled jet to our south. Hopefully, something will happen during the coming weeks but its not uncommon to have snow in the deep south through Feb, so everyone take a deep breath and quit hanging on each individual model run! Funny how the negative nancys take over from time to time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hello all... I don't post here much, but I do read these threads in the SE almost every day. Anyway, I'm probably channeling my inner weenie, but couldn't this system modeled around the 1/3 time period be a possible threat to the coastal Carolinas? Looking at the 5H maps on the GFS it looks like that trough would get a negative tilt at just the right place for the coastal Carolinas. I can't tell because the GFS goes into truncation. Given the last couple of runs of the GFS it's certainly possible and the coastal sections look to be in the best spot as of right now. That of course will surly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I don't think the pattern is looking too bad right now. Granted the models are all over the place, so I'm not sure what to go with. Either way, the Canadian air is lurking and there is an active moisture filled jet to our south. Hopefully, something will happen during the coming weeks but its not uncommon to have snow in the deep south through Feb, so everyone take a deep breath and quit hanging on each individual model run! Funny how the negative nancys take over from time to time..... Yeah, no kidding. Being a model-hugging weenie can go either way. It you step back and see all the players on the field, we're not that far gone from receiving wintry wx east of the apps. Lest we forget how much the models flopped around with the past couple of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Don't look now but Euro is close. @72 850 line runs roughly along I-40 with light QPF coming in. Right now though it looks like only snow would be falling in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @78 it might be some backside flurries for someone along I-40 by 84 it's gone and here comes the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I don't think the pattern is looking too bad right now. Granted the models are all over the place, so I'm not sure what to go with. Either way, the Canadian air is lurking and there is an active moisture filled jet to our south. Hopefully, something will happen during the coming weeks but its not uncommon to have snow in the deep south through Feb, so everyone take a deep breath and quit hanging on each individual model run! Funny how the negative nancys take over from time to time..... Given recent history, early March is also on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Don't look now but Euro is close. @72 850 line runs roughly along I-40 with light QPF coming in. Right now though it looks like only snow would be falling in the mountains. Looks to be an event confined to the mts and perhaps nearest foothills. High pressure is essentially non-existent between the two low pressure centers leading up to or during the event. That's why a split flow is important for us to generate confluence over the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @78 it might be some backside flurries for someone along I-40 by 84 it's gone and here comes the cold air. A bit colder... really bombing the low east of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like just west of GSO could see some flakes, RDU is just above 0 at 850, BL is mid-upper 30's, this came in 6 hours earlier and a smidge more juiced up we would have a chance. Looks like a nice 1-3" for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Given recent history, early March is also on the table. And early April, lol, given recent ULL's down here. Funny, the hue and cry for cold air, considering how it is cold enough around the SE for reports of snow and sleet today, and if the timing was right, the near 3 inches of rain I just got, could have been frozen Down here, anyway, it is nearly always on the borderline..barely cold enough, barely wet enough. Well, boy have I been getting the wet....just need some timing, but that's always the elusive part...after, of course, thegetting wet in a drought part, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @144 Euro just on the surface has a good look. Cold air pushing south with something brewing in TX. Gotta see what that energy does out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @144 Euro just on the surface has a good look. Cold air pushing south with something brewing in TX. Gotta see what that energy does out west. Still hangs it out over the SW but not as far west as the 0z run. Should be closer to TX by 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Still hangs it out over the SW but not as far west as the 0z run. Should be closer to TX by 156 It's not holding it back as long and @174 a low is starting to get cranking in eastern TX near Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Still hangs it out over the SW but not as far west as the 0z run. Should be closer to TX by 156 The 12Z Euro has snow into far NW GA near Rome AM of 1/3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I may be wrong, but it looks like the high in canada right now is a tad stronger than what was modeled a few days ago. just something to look out for in the coming model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @198 low is trekking east and is in central LA. This is going to be a battle of enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Still hangs it out over the SW but not as far west as the 0z run. Should be closer to TX by 156 It hangs it back so long another SW bumps it's tail at 180... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @210 the low is really weak and around GA and FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @228 low is finally moving off the FL coast but no cold air to work with and it's super weak. Euro ENS may have a better solution. This run just didn't quite do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @210 the low is really weak and around GA and FL panhandle. Funky output where half the country is under a single surface pressure contour of 1020mb by 228 hrs. LOL Simply put, the Euro continued to hold the low over Baja and instead of the kicker wave pushing it east, it melds them together in some kind of fujiwara dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It hangs it back so long another SW bumps it's tail at 180... I'll ask then go back to lurking.... doesn't the Euro have a bias of holding back the sw energy too long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @234 and 240 an ULL is moving across upper TN and into NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The Euro appears to be cold chasing rain. Also, not sure how folks are seen as negative for discussing a potential upcoming warm pattern. This used to be a board where you had better be able to back up your forecast if you were calling for cold and snow...otherwise it was known as a wishcast. For those hoping for cold, DT provided a link to the latest CFS2 and it is very cold for January. We'll see.... I'd like to know the trend for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'll ask then go back to lurking.... doesn't the Euro have a bias of holding back the sw energy too long? Yes it does.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Funky output where half the country is under a single surface pressure contour of 1020mb by 228 hrs. LOL Simply put, the Euro continued to hold the low over Baja and instead of the kicker wave pushing it east, it melds them together in some kind of fujiwara dance. Yea it looked way to slow. It probably was a good step in the right direction though given what the 00z showed as far as that energy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The Euro appears to be cold chasing rain. Also, not sure how folks are seen as negative for discussing a potential upcoming warm pattern. This used to be a board where you had better be able to back up your forecast if you were calling for cold and snow...otherwise it was known as a wishcast. For those hoping for cold, DT provided a link to the latest CFS2 and it is very cold for January. We'll see.... I'd like to know the trend for it. I don't think anyone has forecast snow. To be optimistic or pessimistic over a model run and have a qualifying reason for whomever's assertion is welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yea it looked way to slow. It probably was a good step in the right direction though given what the 00z showed as far as that energy out west. With the kicker nearly on shore by 174, the ULL should be over TX rather than still holding on over the SW. This would enhance the western ridge and promote high pressure formation over top of the system. All the players are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I don't think anyone has forecast snow. To be optimistic or pessimistic over a model run and have a qualifying reason for whomever's assertion is welcomed. As it should be...but that in truth is not how it has been for two days. If you proclaim cold, you are welcomed. If you proclaim warmth, you are a negative Nancy. These types of patterns are frustrating for all of us who like normal winter weather. But right now, outside of the CFS there is little support for it. Don't shoot the messengers is my message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 With the kicker nearly on shore by 174, the ULL should be over TX rather than still holding on over the SW. This would enhance the western ridge and promote high pressure formation over top of the system. All the players are there. I agree, I thought when I saw that at 150'ish it would give it a kick and it would amount to something, but all we are left with is at day 9 is two closed lows parading across the country... 168 - kicker coming in to west coast... 216 - 2 lows traversing the country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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