January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[POWERSTROKE]

It only takes one decent snow to get our average snowfall

[Poimen]

I wouldn't necessarily say that. Long term forecasts, whether it's for the teleconnections, the weeklies, the OP runs or ensembles have variablilty on a daily basis, so I wouldn't say the writing is on the wall. Burger is right that we need to calm down. I have a positive attitude like him when it comes at looking at the glass of winter for the SE, but I am rational in knowing where I live.

Me too, that's why it seems like the start of winter is going to be delayed further...because this sort of thing happens in the south every now and again. That's a rational understanding for where we live.

Look, I understand the "let's calm" down talk, but no one is being alarmist, we're just discussing the pattern. I hope the LR forecasts flip back to cold and stay there, but the way things have gone so far leads me to believe otherwise.

[burgertime]

Me too, that's why it seems like the start of winter is going to be delayed further...because this sort of thing happens in the south every now and again. That's a rational understanding for where we live.

Look, I understand the "let's calm" down talk, but no one is being alarmist, we're just discussing the pattern. I hope the LR forecasts flip back to cold and stay there, but the way things have gone so far leads me to believe otherwise.

Let me clarify why I said what I said. We still can not write off next week which is a good window and a good setup. Much better than anything we had last winter. Will we get winter weather? Probably not. Is there a chance? Yes. So until that window closes I'm not going to worry too much about the week after that. Let's cross this bridge before looking for the next one to cross. That's all I'm saying.

12z GFS looks like it'll be different from 00z last night. Let's see where it goes.

[bhamwx205]

Looks like its gonna cut on the 12z run

[packbacker]

Looks like its gonna cut on the 12z run

It shouldn't cut, energy is hanging back...

[packbacker]

12z GFS will just be a weak front. Still lots of time.

[burgertime]

12z GFS will just be a weak front. Still lots of time.

It's what's coming behind that front is what to watch for. In the Jan. 3rd time frame.

[packbacker]

Hmm...at 162 energy diving in on the backside of the vort.

[burgertime]

Hmm...at 162 energy diving in on the backside of the vort.

That energy really needs to phase with the northern energy and it doesn't look like it will happen on this run. We'll see where it goes.

[Wow]

Not enough separation and GFS pulls its usual shear the low song and dance. 0z Euro meanwhile separated entirely and kicked it out into the Pacific. I compromise between these 2 scenarios would be good. The storm need to move east but maintain enough separation to build much needed high pressure.

[packbacker]

Not enough separation and GFS pulls its usual shear the low song and dance. 0z Euro meanwhile separated entirely and kicked it out into the Pacific. I compromise between these 2 scenarios would be good. The storm need to move east but maintain enough separation to build much needed high pressure.

Agreed! Still a great chance next week, good as I can remember since Dec 2010.

[GaWx]

Folks,

1) Neither the 0Z 12/26 Euro nor the 6Z 12/26 GFS gave N GA anything wintry 1/1-3.

2) The 12Z 12/26 GFS is also not giving N GA anything wintry of note 1/1-3 (except possibly flurries..I'll need to check MeteoStar later for that..**MeteoStar confirms not even any flurries).

3) As a result of these three lackluster runs, I'm reducing the chance for any sig. wintry precip. for N GA 1/1-3 from 15% to 10% and the chance for anything minor from 20% to 10%.

[packbacker]

I see Mr. Wood lurking! Any thoughts? Should we be intrigued or is our inner weenie getting the best of us?

[bhamwx205]

Folks,

1) Neither the 0Z 12/26 Euro nor the 6Z 12/26 GFS gave N GA anything wintry 1/1-3.

2) The 12Z 12/26 GFS is also not giving N GA anything wintry of note 1/1-3 (except possibly flurries..I'll need to check MeteoStar later for that).

3) As a result of these three lackluster runs, I'm reducing the chance for any sig. wintry precip. for N GA 1/1-3 from 15% to 10% and the chance for anything minor from 20% to 10%.

I guess its a good thing you dont put out a forecast seeing as how you change your mind everyday.

12z gfs holding back energy.....still like the look. ensembles will be interesting

[burgertime]

Brad Panovich just posted this. If you think this winter is anything like last winter this should settle that debate. What it can do for the SE is still yet to be seen.

[WXinCanton]

Folks,

1) Neither the 0Z 12/26 Euro nor the 6Z 12/26 GFS gave N GA anything wintry 1/1-3.

2) The 12Z 12/26 GFS is also not giving N GA anything wintry of note 1/1-3 (except possibly flurries..I'll need to check MeteoStar later for that).

3) As a result of these three lackluster runs, I'm reducing the chance for any sig. wintry precip. for N GA 1/1-3 from 15% to 10% and the chance for anything minor from 20% to 10%.

I think the 1/2 to 1/3 looks decent at 5h, as Wow and a couple others have alluded too.

[Cold Rain]

The Jan 3/4th is going to offer a very real opportunity here. It may turn out to be yet another close call, but I am liking the looks of things right now. Suppression is good. Let's keep that for a few days and go from there.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Sandy has really did a number on many including mine own thoughts for this winter. When a storm of that magnitude comes about, it changes the weather pattern globally . I did not receive an rain drop from Sandy, but it has sent my area into a drought and warmer than normal temps. Until Pacific calms down there is no way we see any winter storms. I do believe we will see some wintery precip, but timing in going to be key. Relaxing of Pacific jet combined with a strong high that is funneling air down the east side of the apps, is the recipe i'm looking for and i'm personally hoping for, and have not seen those combinations yet.

I nearly had to pick myself up off the floor laughing after I saw the "I do believe we will see some wintery precip, but timing in going to be key" ... and then looked at your Obs which clearly showed snow falling as of 11:35AM (this morning) Wednesday

There's some serious crying on this board, huh?... wow, not what I expected when I signed up...

I'll say this... there is no denying all forecast data having serious problems handling the combination of canadian cold pressing down and interacting with the pacific energy tucked underneath. Also, there will be numerous timing snafus where canadian energy phases on one run and misses on the next, etc. for numerous runs with as much energy is flying around in the northern hemisphere. This makes it even more important not to put any stock in specific or even generalizations past 5 days in the future. There's simply too much uncertainty.

There's also no denying that are far too many west coast kickers (numerous systems on fast-moving, short wavelengths) showing up in this pattern. We would all enjoy a longer wavelength, slower pattern, but it's just not as likely with a cold pool of water in the gulf of alaska as opposed to a warmer pool...

seems there is a "Mr. Bob - let's roll with negativity because it's cool not to be a snow weenie" mentality that overtakes this board at times which is entertaining I must say... the good news is that we are in a moisture-filled pattern and all it takes is confluence in the northeast with a 1036mb high anchored over western NY to completely flip the new sub-saharan climate some think most of us now reside in... to a real bad scenario in the NC foothills and SC piedmont

[packbacker]

Brad Panovich just posted this. If you think this winter is anything like last winter this should settle that debate. What it can do for the SE is still yet to be seen.

Looks like a typical La Niña map :-(

[GaWx]

I guess its a good thing you dont put out a forecast seeing as how you change your mind everyday.

12z gfs holding back energy.....still like the look. ensembles will be interesting

You clearly don't understand. It isn't changing my mind. It is constantly adjusting the % chance in my mind as the latest available comes in. The % chance isn't stagnant. The last three GFS and last six Euro runs have shown pretty close to nada wintry precipwise for N GA 1/1-3. Why shouldn't I adjust the chances down for now after having raised them yesterday?

[nchighcountrywx]

Brad Panovich just posted this. If you think this winter is anything like last winter this should settle that debate. What it can do for the SE is still yet to be seen.

The map shows a lot and also reenforces many thoughts back in late November/Early December that when winter did press, the main storm track for snow would be from the plains through the Ohio Valley. We need the press to continue further SE and not retreat back northward as the teleconnections would suggest.

[bingcrosbyb]

Looks good for possible CAD events in the Carolinas in the next 1-2 weeks and I hope you guys cash in.

I'm in GaWx's wagon. Until we get a true -NAO and decent ridging out west, I honestly don't see a threat for my area (I-20 corridor) until mid-late January at the earliest.

[NCSNOW]

LOL. Seems like I read a met from PA forecast 50-60% of the US would expierence a white Christmas back in the first week of December when we where all sunbathing.

[franklin NCwx]

I nearly had to pick myself up off the floor laughing after I saw the "I do believe we will see some wintery precip, but timing in going to be key" ... and then looked at your Obs which clearly showed snow falling as of 11:35AM (this morning) Wednesday

There's some serious crying on this board, huh?... wow, not what I expected when I signed up... how old are the members here? I was under the impression I was younger than most, but maybe not

I'll say this... there is no denying all forecast data having serious problems handling the combination of canadian cold pressing down and interacting with the pacific energy tucked underneath. Also, there will be numerous timing snafus where canadian energy phases on one run and misses on the next, etc. for numerous runs with as much energy is flying around in the northern hemisphere. This makes it even more important not to put any stock in specific or even generalizations past 5 days in the future. There's simply too much uncertainty.

There's also no denying that are far too many west coast kickers (numerous systems on fast-moving, short wavelengths) showing up in this pattern. We would all enjoy a longer wavelength, slower pattern, but it's just not as likely with a cold pool of water in the gulf of alaska as opposed to a warmer pool...

seems there is a "Mr. Bob - let's roll with negativity because it's cool not to be a snow weenie" mentality that overtakes this board at times which is entertaining I must say... the good news is that we are in a moisture-filled pattern and all it takes is confluence in the northeast with a 1036mb high anchored over western NY to completely flip the new sub-saharan climate some think most of us now reside in... to a real bad scenario in the NC foothills and SC piedmont

excellent. Post

[GaWx]

I think the 1/2 to 1/3 looks decent at 5h, as Wow and a couple others have alluded too.

That's why I still have a 20% chance for something minor or more for 1/1-3 for N GA as opposed to, say, only 5%. I had to adjust downward to reflect the lackluster latest GFS/Euro runs. If multiple recent runs show nothing, the chances generally have to drop at least some. If just one recent one shows something, that's usually enough to allow the chances to increase since they are currently well under 50%. It is an ongoing process. Does that make sense?

[Bevo]

I nearly had to pick myself up off the floor laughing after I saw the "I do believe we will see some wintery precip, but timing in going to be key" ... and then looked at your Obs which clearly showed snow falling as of 11:35AM (this morning) Wednesday

There's some serious crying on this board, huh?... wow, not what I expected when I signed up...

I'll say this... there is no denying all forecast data having serious problems handling the combination of canadian cold pressing down and interacting with the pacific energy tucked underneath. Also, there will be numerous timing snafus where canadian energy phases on one run and misses on the next, etc. for numerous runs with as much energy is flying around in the northern hemisphere. This makes it even more important not to put any stock in specific or even generalizations past 5 days in the future. There's simply too much uncertainty.

There's also no denying that are far too many west coast kickers (numerous systems on fast-moving, short wavelengths) showing up in this pattern. We would all enjoy a longer wavelength, slower pattern, but it's just not as likely with a cold pool of water in the gulf of alaska as opposed to a warmer pool...

seems there is a "Mr. Bob - let's roll with negativity because it's cool not to be a snow weenie" mentality that overtakes this board at times which is entertaining I must say... the good news is that we are in a moisture-filled pattern and all it takes is confluence in the northeast with a 1036mb high anchored over western NY to completely flip the new sub-saharan climate some think most of us now reside in... to a real bad scenario in the NC foothills and SC piedmont

This was and still is my concern.

[franklin NCwx]

The map shows a lot and also reenforces many thoughts back in late November/Early December that when winter did press, the main storm track for snow would be from the plains through the Ohio Valley. We need the press to continue further SE and not retreat back northward as the teleconnections would suggest.

well, we are just now heading to the heart of winter.

[WXinCanton]

That's why I still have a 20% chance for something minor or more for 1/1-3 for N GA as opposed to, say, only 5%. I had to adjust downward to reflect the lackluster latest GFS/Euro runs. If multiple recent runs show nothing, the chances generally have to drop at least some. If just one recent one shows something, that's usually enough to allow the chances to increase since they are currently well under 50%. It is an ongoing process. Does that make sense?

of course, it makes sense. Taking into account all the models and guidance, 20% maybe a tick on the generous side.

I think its a decent set up looking at the 500mb maps, not perfect but pretty close and being that far out. Plenty of time!

On to the ECMWF

[calculus1]

Brad Panovich just posted this. If you think this winter is anything like last winter this should settle that debate. What it can do for the SE is still yet to be seen.

And...the second map should have an even greater percentage of snow cover after last night's/today's blizzard through the Ohio Valley. I know all of southern Illinois and Indiana now have snow cover. This is definitely a vastly different setup than last winter.

Oh, and Mr. Andy Wood, thanks for slapping around the "doom and gloomers" for us! There's definitely been way too much sobbing going on in the forecast discussion forums. Get a hold of yourselves, people!

[ILMRoss]

Hello all... I don't post here much, but I do read these threads in the SE almost every day. Anyway, I'm probably channeling my inner weenie, but couldn't this system modeled around the 1/3 time period be a possible threat to the coastal Carolinas? Looking at the 5H maps on the GFS it looks like that trough would get a negative tilt at just the right place for the coastal Carolinas. I can't tell because the GFS goes into truncation.