January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[MichaelJ]

We only have a roughly 2 week window for any wintry precip here in the SE before the warm-up begins around the 10-15th of January. After that who the heck knows but given the performance of the indices so far and the inability of the models to get anything right for the SE over 4-5 days, I would not hold my breath.

[FallsLake]

we can't win for losing here in the SE. As soon as we get a shift to a better Pacific pattern (+PNA) the NAO rises.

Looking bad; The PNA is going to be postive until around Jan. 10th then fall back towards negative. The NAO may go negative during the next week but it will also go positive by Jan 10th. (**this time period would/should be a our best chance**) The AO looks to be going positive by Jan 10th. The 6z GFS today showed a nice setup ay day 16; but with these indicies it's way wrong and we'll be wearing shorts.

[FallsLake]

I will have to add that we are going into the best climo period for winter storms (mid Jan to early Feb). I read years back that indices (AO, NAO, PNA) do not have to be perfect during this time. If we can get a couple of the indicies to go in our favor during the next month maybe we can get something to brew.

[burgertime]

Euro is nothing like the GFS with the New Yearish storm, It basically sends the energy from west Mexico to OK which just weakens anything moving east. Euro ENS also didn't look good for any wintry weather. It does look like the GFS OP with a storm after New Years but it's way too warm. On to the 12z.

[Carvers Gap]

Just based on today's CPC ensemble connectors alone(not saying I believe this), one would say overall temps for January may finish way above normal. If the PNA goes negative with the NAO positive mid-month, many of us will see 70s.

[burgertime]

Just based on today's CPC ensemble connectors alone(not saying I believe this), one would say overall temps for January may finish way above normal. If the PNA goes negative with the NAO positive mid-month, many of us will see 70s.

If you based weather on that in say late November it should have been 25 degrees all December with lots of snow....then again climo will probably be 100% in line if it screams warm as opposed to screaming cold.

[Carvers Gap]

If you based weather on that in say late November it should have been 25 degrees all December with lots of snow....then again climo will probably be 100% in line if it screams warm as opposed to screaming cold.

Not really, the PNA(looking forward, not for November) was a problem for at least part of November as I recall. So no, that is incorrect. I actually made several posts during November expressing concern as to why the models refused to turn the pattern cold in the face of NAO and AO numbers that should have held otherwise. There were several conversations about whether the Pacific was driving the pattern. The negative PNA has driven the pattern all winter. The writing was on the wall then....no Niño and a highly unfavorable Pacific which was modeled correctly in mid-November. It is probably time for all of us to accept that the winter will be strongly warm and start looking for winter storm that might occur during the warm pattern. However, it is my opinion that arctic air will not be in the pattern for a prolonged time the rest of the winter. We have eight weeks of winter, it is highly unlikely we see any during the next four weeks. That leaves February....we'll see.

[Bevo]

Not really, the PNA(looking forward, not for November) was a problem for at least part of November as I recall. So no, that is incorrect. I actually made several posts during November expressing concern as to why the models refused to turn the pattern cold in the face of NAO and AO numbers that should have held otherwise. There were several conversations about whether the Pacific was driving the pattern. The negative PNA has driven the pattern all winter. The writing was on the wall then....no Niño and a highly unfavorable Pacific which was modeled correctly in mid-November. It is probably time for all of us to accept that the winter will be strongly warm and start looking for winter storm that might occur during the warm pattern. However, it is my opinion that arctic air will not be in the pattern for a prolonged time the rest of the winter. We have eight weeks of winter, it is highly unlikely we see any during the next four weeks. That leaves February....we'll see.

Has the PNA not been negative for most of this past year? Yet much of the SE experienced at or below normal temps from April until November. What caused the flip - literally - in December?

[Poimen]

Has the PNA not been negative for most of this past year? Yet much of the SE experienced at or below normal temps from April until November. What caused the flip - literally - in December?

My guess is the PNA has a greater effect on our temps in the winter months versus Spring-early Fall.

[Bevo]

My guess is the PNA has a greater effect on our temps in the winter months versus Spring-early Fall.

Honestly, that is as close to a conclusion as I've been able to come up with.

[Southern Track]

I hate to ad fuel to the fire, but to go along with the teleconnections not holding, the MJO is forecasted to roll into phases 3-6 sometime after about 10 days. That's not just warm for us, it's warm for the country.

[Poimen]

So, in sum, we are close to pushing the start of winter in the SE to late January (if then).

[burgertime]

So, in sum, we are close to pushing the start of winter in the SE to late January (if then).

Everyone needs to calm down. If next week most of us received say 4 inches of snow would we say the start of winter is pushed until lat Jan? We need to get through next week before folks start punting Jan.

[packbacker]

So sounds like several people want to cancel winter..,what gave it away...the fact that Dec had a stout -NAO/-AO and we are going to have a record warm December. Well the PNA will go positive for the first week of Jan so we will have a chance, lets hope we cash in.

The good news is we are just getting going in a -PDO multi year cycle so this winter will be the norm for years to come...wait, I guess that is bad news :-)))

[Carvers Gap]

Has the PNA not been negative for most of this past year? Yet much of the SE experienced at or below normal temps from April until November. What caused the flip - literally - in December?

As many will say, summer patterns rarely translate to winter patterns. As I have said before, summer at KTRI produced all time record highs. July was rainy. August was surprisingly comfortable. This year will probably finish near the top in terms of temps. Tough to say the pattern was surprising if you want to use that argument. I think much of this has to do with La Nina. I also think a lack of Arctic ice is inhibiting cold air from sliding across the pole...but that is just a theory of mine. There are theories to the contrary I might add. Really, as soon as I saw Alaska turn cold in November, that was the sign for me. FWIW at KTRI...April +2.6, May +5.0, June +0.8, July +3.3, August -0.5, Sept 0.0, Oct -0.8, Nov -3.1, Dec +6.4. April to Nov...avg is +.91 and that doesn't include Dec yet. That for MBY is not below normal...it is above.

But again, I think summers don't translate to winters often. The ENSO is the driver IMO.

[nchighcountrywx]

I hate to ad fuel to the fire, but to go along with the teleconnections not holding, the MJO is forecasted to roll into phases 3-6 sometime after about 10 days. That's not just warm for us, it's warm for the country.

Yes this is unfortunately the case and is a reliable teleconnection that the next 8 weeks are going to be a challenge for us outdoor winter sportsmen.

Winter forecasts actually unraveled back in November when the Pacific in effect took over the pattern that struck to the core of many winter forecasts. From that point on, the entire game had changed as the initial forecasts had lost their foundation.

Long range forecasting is a tough business and everyone who does it is to be commended and highly respected for the hard work they put into it.

[POWERSTROKE]

Late jan looks better but time will tell

[Poimen]

Everyone needs to calm down. If next week most of us received say 4 inches of snow would we say the start of winter is pushed until lat Jan? We need to get through next week before folks start punting Jan.

I'm afraid the writing is on the wall Burger. But I hope I'm wrong.

[Bevo]

As many will say, summer patterns rarely translate to winter patterns. As I have said before, summer at KTRI produced all time record highs. July was rainy. August was surprisingly comfortable. This year will probably finish near the top in terms of temps. Tough to say the pattern was surprising if you want to use that argument. I think much of this has to do with La Nina. I also think a lack of Arctic ice is inhibiting cold air from sliding across the pole...but that is just a theory of mine. There are theories to the contrary I might add. Really, as soon as I saw Alaska turn cold in November, that was the sign for me. FWIW at KTRI...April +2.6, May +5.0, June +0.8, July +3.3, August -0.5, Sept 0.0, Oct -0.8, Nov -3.1, Dec +6.4. April to Nov...avg is +.91 and that doesn't include Dec yet. That for MBY is not below normal...it is above.

I believe you, considering your location in the western fringe of the SE. The proximity to that hell of a summer in the Midwest is evident. I was at or below normal every month since April (this includes the record high days of July here as well).

It's not tough for me to call it a surprise. However even now, I've had a colder start to winter than last year provided, so I suppose it's relative in the end.

[Carvers Gap]

Yes this is unfortunately the case and is a reliable teleconnection that the next 8 weeks are going to be a challenge for us outdoor winter sportsmen.

I think a true torch is now possible....but like a ridiculously cold pattern that is forecast sometimes it does the opposite. However, if one was to purely use the scientific data before us it will be warm at a minimum relative to norms for a good portion of January. At some point though, the Pacific pattern will break....I just don't see it happening during the next four weeks. What will be interesting to see is if we can get 2-3 weeks of epic winter even in a warm pattern. It has happened before...that is why I am not saying snowfall will not reach norms.

[Southern Track]

I'm afraid the writing is on the wall Burger. But I hope I'm wrong.

I wouldn't necessarily say that. Long term forecasts, whether it's for the teleconnections, the weeklies, the OP runs or ensembles have variablilty on a daily basis, so I wouldn't say the writing is on the wall. Burger is right that we need to calm down. I have a positive attitude like him when it comes at looking at the glass of winter for the SE, but I am rational in knowing where I live.

[Bevo]

I think a true torch is now possible....but like a ridiculously cold pattern that is forecast sometimes it does the opposite. However, if one was to purely use the scientific data before us it will be warm at a minimum relative to norms for a good portion of January. At some point though, the Pacific pattern will break....I just don't see it happening during the next four weeks. What will be interesting to see is if we can get 2-3 weeks of epic winter even in a warm pattern. It has happened before...that is why I am not saying snowfall will not reach norms.

I do agree with this. I don't even think it has to be "epic" per se. But it is certainly possible.

Your other statement about the opposite happening - is precisely why I'm reserving judgement at this point.

[Carvers Gap]

I am reminded that Foothills has often mentioned a certain winter that was warm , flipped cold late, and then the military had to be called in to W NC to get people supplies due to deep snow. I am not saying he is predicting that for this winter, but I never write a winter off due to that.

[WXinCanton]

Euro is way to warm for me for the new years system. Maybe the MA gets something but looks sheared out by the time it gets there.

[weatherfide]

Looks like winter will be same as last only this year the models showing more storms but nothing verifies

Well, it is producing more rain down in the south, so that is a definite plus.

[packbacker]

I am reminded that Foothills has often mentioned a certain winter that was warm , flipped cold late, and then the military had to be called in to W NC to get people supplies due to deep snow. I am not saying he is predicting that for this winter, but I never write a winter off due to that.

For Raleigh, the two best winter storms I ever experienced came in very warm winters, 2000 and 2002. In 2002 we got that early Jan winter storm and after that it was major torch. In 2000 we got that 10 day stretch in late Jan. Now these are the exceptions and not the rule as there have been plenty of warm winters with no events. That's why I feel we need to cash in next week.

[Bevo]

Well, it is producing more rain down in the south, so that is a definite plus.

To add to this - the snow cover across the CONUS is much improved as well.

[BIG FROSTY]

To add to this - the snow cover across the CONUS is much improved as well.

Yes it is, only problem with that is it will probably get wiped out soon..

[POWERSTROKE]

Well, it is producing more rain down in the south, so that is a definite plus.

Not complaining as we all need rain. Just stating what this winter is looking like

[tarheelwx]

I really think we'll see things balance out a bit before winter is over. In the past, it almost always seemed to be the case - no 3 months of torch and no 3 months of solid cold. That was all until last year when we got 3 months of warm, not necesarrily torch for 3 months, but definitely warm. So that has affected my thinking a bit. I just can't imagine we'd have another winter like last. But so far, it is like we picked up where we left off. Having said all that, I think we flip at some point and have several weeks below normal and will have a couple of storms.

TW