January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[Marion_NC_WX]

That's a painful image at 168...-12 to -15 850's over the Eastern Great Lakes and Ontario but nothing to tap it down the East Coast. We're really close to a big ticket item in North Carolina.

[burgertime]

@183 the cold is finally making it's way into the Carolinas as the low is just off the coast around ILM and is starting to crank up. Looks like it's going to be too little too late but man GFS looks to bringing in the cold air. Check out that bit PV to our NE just spin and spin.

[Wow]

gfs seems faster...coming thru sav at 168hr.

EDIT: wrong low, ours is over la.

gfs shearing the low.. a series of waves rolling through.. There is no "one" storm with this setup.. need to maintain some separation between the streams. The vortex isn't that far south so it should keep its own as it moves east.

[IWC]

I can. It'd probably be a lot like how it was in 04/05-07/08. Lots of teases, some periods of cold, and lots of disappointment. Come to think of it, most years are like that, though we get the occasional good storm.

Were all lQQking for that 1 GOOD STORM. maybe this one or maybe the next one. BUT, we keep lQQkin...

[burgertime]

Doubt all that energy phases like it does @192 on the GFS but if it does lookout!

[burgertime]

GFS is so close to a huge hit. @216 light snow across eastern NC....still though its' there and showing potential.

[griteater]

Those waves that roll through the Great Lakes at hr156-162 - those must clear and drag the cold front through the SE prior to the SW low ejecting the energy and precip east. Again, we are in the ballgame with this look.

[lilj4425]

Another 'cold air chasing the moisture' system I see.

[NCSNOW]

Those waves that roll through the Great Lakes at hr156-162 - those must clear and drag the cold front through the SE prior to the SW low ejecting the energy and precip east. Again, we are in the ballgame with this look.

I was watching the same thing. Last one gets out of the way and by hr168 HP is sliding into position and 850's start crashing down through VA and then NC.

[GaWx]

0z 12/26 GFS gives nada to N GA 1/1-3. Next!

[bhamwx205]

0z 12/26 GFS gives nada to N GA 1/1-3. Next!

You are crazy saying next 7days out

[Wow]

Those waves that roll through the Great Lakes at hr156-162 - those must clear and drag the cold front through the SE prior to the SW low ejecting the energy and precip east. Again, we are in the ballgame with this look.

Given the placement of the PV and how far this southern energy digs south, I really don't see this being sheared away that much. I'd expect stronger confluence along the northern tier which will build in our needed surface high pressure and a more well-defined southern ULL, perhaps partially cut-off by the time it is over TX with a neutral/pos tilt.

[burgertime]

GFS in the LR looks like a Picasso painting with the 850's and 2m temps. They're going all over the place.

[burgertime]

0z 12/26 GFS gives nada to N GA 1/1-3. Next!

Surprised you aren't a little excited...it was on the edge which is better than a lot of the runs have been showing for N GA. Hopefully Euro comes in for the win

[Pilotwx]

Sandy has really did a number on many including mine own thoughts for this winter. When a storm of that magnitude comes about, it changes the weather pattern globally . I did not receive an rain drop from Sandy, but it has sent my area into a drought and warmer than normal temps. Until Pacific calms down there is no way we see any winter storms. I do believe we will see some wintery precip, but timing in going to be key. Relaxing of Pacific jet combined with a strong high that is funneling air down the east side of the apps, is the recipe i'm looking for and i'm personally hoping for, and have not seen those combinations yet.

[Wow]

GFS in the LR looks like a Picasso painting with the 850's and 2m temps. They're going all over the place.

Sometimes I think they run the GFS this far out just to give the board weenies something to toss around. They should return to the MRF days to max it at 240 hours.

[NCSNOW]

Given the placement of the PV and how far this southern energy digs south, I really don't see this being sheared away that much. I'd expect stronger confluence along the northern tier which will build in our needed surface high pressure and a more well-defined southern ULL, perhaps partially cut-off by the time it is over TX with a neutral/pos tilt.

I guess it's the ole known bias of the gfs to shear/progress sw ejecting energy just like it's the euro's handicap to hold energy back to much in the LR coming into play IMO. I hope the euro ensembles can hold serve tonight on the 12/30 event. If MBY misses, atleast I can chase and get back home on a half tank of gas.

[burgertime]

Sometimes I think they run the GFS this far out just to give the board weenies something to toss around. They should return to the MRF days to max it at 240 hours.

I'm just happy you could see a PV spinning on a SFC map this winter. Lol I think you're right, imagine if the Euro went that long with an OP run and the reactions. GFS though just looks ridiculous on this run....worst than usual in the LR.

[Wow]

I'm just happy you could see a PV spinning on a SFC map this winter. Lol I think you're right, imagine if the Euro went that long with an OP run and the reactions. GFS though just looks ridiculous on this run....worst than usual in the LR.

Why not run the GFS every 3 hours? There's always new data to draw in. It would be a freaking mad house in here! LOL

[griteater]

Given the placement of the PV and how far this southern energy digs south, I really don't see this being sheared away that much. I'd expect stronger confluence along the northern tier which will build in our needed surface high pressure and a more well-defined southern ULL, perhaps partially cut-off by the time it is over TX with a neutral/pos tilt.

Well, this has trended like you called it with the SW low ejecting out into the southern plains rather than getting stuck in the southwest, so, hopefully your other calls here are correct...lol. From reading HPC discos over the years, it seems like the GFS has a tendency to be a little fast with its features (compared to other guidance)...in that respect, it did seem like the GFS was bringing the SW sheared waves and associated precip out to the east a little on the fast side.

[GaWx]

It seems like no one has said anything about cold that was supposed to arrive around New Years. Nothing but slightly below average temps or average it seems for the SE.

I've been talking about the cold bias of the GFS/Euro day 6+ model consensus for several weeks now. Yes, New Year's no longer looks cold...closer to seasonable.

[SN_Lover]

i think we all should wait till the 0z euro run before everyone freaks out. the euro has been the top preforming model thus far, so lets weight that model more.

[DCMetroWinston]

Sandy has really did a number on many including mine own thoughts for this winter. When a storm of that magnitude comes about, it changes the weather pattern globally . I did not receive an rain drop from Sandy, but it has sent my area into a drought and warmer than normal temps. Until Pacific calms down there is no way we see any winter storms. I do believe we will see some wintery precip, but timing in going to be key. Relaxing of Pacific jet combined with a strong high that is funneling air down the east side of the apps, is the recipe i'm looking for and i'm personally hoping for, and have not seen those combinations yet.

I am a total novice, but since November was much colder than normal, how is Sandy responsible for warmer temps since Halloween?

[burgertime]

GFS ENS Mean still too warm for this weekend. It does look colder for the New Years storm but only out to 168. I was going to stay up for PBP on the Euro but I'm fading fast.

[DopplerWx]

ensembles def colder at 180. lets see what happens.

[SN_Lover]

The 0Z gfs would be a all rain event for charlotte until hour 120.

[GaWx]

You are crazy saying next 7days out

No, when I say next, I mean next model run (since it gave N GA nothing), not next storm. I'm still going with about a 1 in 3 shot for now at at least a minor wintry event for N GA 1/1-3.

[Pilotwx]

Not in my neck of the woods. If you look back at the pattern before Sandy occured which was wetter than normal and we had even seen some spells of hybrid CAD events for the fall of the year and even has been pointed out but some mets. Before Sandy the Midwest had a historical drought, Southeast, Mid Atlantic wetter than normal. After Sandy Midwest very wet and cold, Southeast and Mid- Atlantic drought conditions were starting to get a hold of the area until the last week, and warm. Of course some of this is seasonality change, but a lot more is due to pattern change. As those who have taken Met classes can verify when you have a storm like Sandy with a extremely low pressure there is going to be somewhere in the world with an extremely High Pressure. They have to counterbalance each other, that how we get a even state of weather(clear, sunny days) . Sandy pumped up the Bermuda high that is the reason we are seeing the storm right now go west of the APPS. as most storms have. We are now seeing somewhat of a demise of the Bermuda high right now.

I am a total novice, but since November was much colder than normal, how is Sandy responsible for warmer temps since Halloween?

[griteater]

00z Canadian drops the upper low way to the southwest (off Baja). Dry and cool High Pressure settles in on NW flow. Southwest low finally ejects at day 9-10, but it's too warm by then.

[Poimen]

we can't win for losing here in the SE. As soon as we get a shift to a better Pacific pattern (+PNA) the NAO rises.