January Pattern and Storm Discussion

[dsaur]

Of course you are speaking primarily for yourself and possibly NoGa, right? I've had several nights in the 20's, which is not that common for December in my area.

Hey, Bevo! He's talking the Atl. airport, which is a well known Alien Weather Experimentation Zone. I've been down to 27 twice in the last few days, but I'm in the Mole Zone, so things go on here that defy logic, also. More officially the Experiment Station had 29.8 and 29. Heat island, jet engine wash, and expanse of concrete have been used to explain why the Airport has different weather than say, Jonesboro, or Midtown But I suspect nefarious forces.

I've had a ENe wind all afternoon, blowing cold, while many times it won't go through Atl. Plus I've had another .3 in rain early afternoon, and often Atl will be showing nada. So when Larry speaks of Atl and surroundings, often the southern part gets colder that the middle part. And I know he knows that N. Ga. doesn't end at I 20.... though many believe Ga. ends there, and that down here there be dragons.

The 0 line on the gfs is within a state or two, and rain continues to appear. The future looks bright to me, but then I know we will only have a few shots, on average, they might include only marginal cold, and they might not appear until Feb, March, or, please no, April, lol. As long as it's winter, and it's raining, I watch every storm, because two days out the 850's can drop, and a duzy can appear out of no where. T

[POWERSTROKE]

But if the GFS changes he will become more hip. I lost count of how many times I quoted you quoting Robert with the possible ice storm for Christmas going back and fourth.

Cheer up!

He is talking about accumulating snow. Seeing snow does nothing for us unless its accumulating which wont happen. Just looked and didnt see where Robert said anything but once about ice. you might want to look how many times you have posted a map of winter weather and not one yet has verified not one. No sustained cold means not much of a winter at all

[SN_Lover]

18z is much colder for me. it seems like 18z runs have a cold bias?

(WOW), I think we might cash in on some snow this time(i live in mooresville too)

[GaWx]

18Z 12/25 run of GFS for N GA for 1/2: looks like there is probably sig. ZR in part of N GA and possibly down to ATL-AHN areas on 1/2 with possibly enough for major ZR for especially NE GA.

Recap of all runs for N GA for 1/1-3:

A. Euro: has had nothing worth mentioning except a clipper S event (~1" S) on the cold 0Z 12/23 run.

B. GFS:

12/20 12 Z: major/historic S (~9" KATL)

12/20 18Z: sig. to major ZR

12/21 0Z: nada

12/21 6Z: minor backside S

12/21 12Z: nada

12/21 18Z : nada

12/22 0Z: major ZR

12/22 6Z: nada

12/22 12Z: nada

12/22 18Z: minor backside S

12/23 0Z: nada

12/23 6Z: nada

12/23 12Z: nada

12/23 18Z: nada (but major S to the south in central to parts of S GA)

12/24 0Z: minor/flurries

12/24 6Z: nada

12/24 12Z: nada

12/24 18Z: minor/flurries

12/25 0Z: nada

12/25 6Z: nada

12/25 12Z: minor backside S

12/25 18Z: sig. to possibly major ZR

---------------------------------------------------------------

So, four of last 22 GFS runs (18%) and one of last 12 Euro runs (8%) have had sig. to major wintry precip. for bulk of N GA for 1/1-3. Five of last 22 GFS runs (23%) and none of the last 12 Euro runs (0%) have had minor S/flurries for 1/1-3.

Based on this and with the most recent GFS having something sig., I'm raising the chance for a sig. wintry event (1"+ S/IP and/or 0.25"+ ZR) for the bulk of ATL-AHN northward in N GA (outside mtns.) during 1/1-3 from 10% to 15%. In addition, I'm going with a 20% chance of something minor (<1" S/IP and/or <0.25" ZR). So, I'm at about a 1 in 3 shot at something minor or greater 1/1-3 for the bulk of N GA down to ATL-AHN.

[GaWx]

Any chance Atlanta goes an entire winter without getting below 30? Has that ever happened ?

No, it hasn't occurred. Going back to 1878-9, the warmest winter min. for ATL was the 25 F of 1949-50. This 25 F was recorded on 12/24/1949. Tied for 2nd are the 24's of 2005-6 (12/22 and 2/13) and 1912-3 (in Feb.). Tied for 4th are the 22's of 1948-49 and 1952-53 (12/26 and 12/15, respectively). In 6th is the 21 of 1920-1 (in Dec). Note that the coldest of these winters with warmest mins were mostly in Dec.

- Note that the winter of 1922-23's lowest through 2/15 was only down to 27 F. The lowest ended up being the 13 F of 2/18/1923.

- Note that the winter of 1931-2's lowest through 3/8 was only down to 26 F. The lowest ended up being the 15 F of 3/10 on top of 0.3" of snowfall. The highest on 3/9 was only 28 F! Also, there were a total of three lows in the teens in that March.

[packbacker]

Fairly good GFS ensemble agreement with the 18z run. Several show a nice coastal from the gulf and several others are suppressed OTS which is probably most encouraging.

[dsaur]

No, it hasn't occurred. Going back to 1878-9, the warmest winter min. for ATL was the 25 F of 1949-50. This 25 F was recorded on 12/24/1949. Tied for 2nd are the 24's of 2005-6 (12/22 and 2/13) and 1912-3 (in Feb.). Tied for 4th are the 22's of 1948-49 and 1952-53 (12/26 and 12/15, respectively). In 6th is the 21 of 1920-1 (in Dec). Note that the coldest of these winters with warmest mins were mostly in Dec.

- Note that the winter of 1922-23's lowest through 2/15 was only down to 27 F. The lowest ended up being the 13 F of 2/18/1923.

- Note that the winter of 1931-2's lowest through 3/8 was only down to 26 F. The lowest ended up being the 15 F of 3/10 on top of 0.3" of snowfall. The highest on 3/9 was only 28 F! Also, there were a total of three lows in the teens in that March.

This really surprised me! So I went and looked thinking last year was pretty good for wall to wall warmth, and sure enough in early Jan. a 23.9 and a 25 back to back. Lol, it's never as warm as you remember.

And by the way, I'm pulling for that central Ga. slasher that popped on the 18z a while back Tony

[griteater]

Fairly good GFS ensemble agreement with the 18z run. Several show a nice coastal from the gulf and several others are suppressed OTS which is probably most encouraging.

Just looked at those. We are at least in the ballgame in the upper south over the course of next week. I thought the 12z Euro Ensemble mean looked quite a bit better than the operational run - more +PNA ridging in W Canada, quite a bit colder over the Midwest/Ohio Valley, and that filters southeast where at hr192 the Euro Op has +10 deg C at 850mb in N Mississippi and the Euro Ens Mean has 0 deg at the same time (sfc low in SE LA on op & in gulf on Ens)...related to that, the ensemble mean has a more suppressed look and not nearly as amp'd and warm as the op run with the upper wave/low over the southwest (some of that is to be expected given that it is an ensemble mean, but the different look is noteworthy).

[GaWx]

This really surprised me! So I went and looked thinking last year was pretty good for wall to wall warmth, and sure enough in early Jan. a 23.9 and a 25 back to back. Lol, it's never as warm as you remember.

And by the way, I'm pulling for that central Ga. slasher that popped on the 18z a while back Tony

Tony,

1) In addition, it fell all of the way to 19 on 2/12/12!

2) I bet you'd like that run.

[nrhardin]

Guys, let's set all of this aside. Like it or not, meteorology is a science dominated by doubt. Differing opinions leads to a deeper understanding of the science and thus a better overall consensus. While questioning "red taggers" is frowned upon on this board, anyone can feel free to question my thinking at any point in time. Even non-formally trained mets may pick up on something that I don't see. While Robert is very well respected and an excellent forecaster, I don't think Wilkes meant anything overtly negative by his posts.

All of this being said, I am with Robert that without a solid high in the NE, the chances of sustained frozen precip in the SE are always worth questioning. This comes from one of the most knowledgeable and experienced synoptic professors and mets that I know. I believe anyone that went to NC State will know who I am referencing. Point being, cold chasing moisture rarely works out in the SE, as burger, eyewall, and others often post about. I want frozen precip as much as the next southerner, but we have to have a constant source of cold air. Merry Christmas (Happy Holidays) to all....let's remember we all want something frozen, though.

[metalicwx366]

DT's Snowstorm for the EC he predicted on Dec 19th is there but its not a snowstorm for the coast.

It seems like no one has said anything about cold that was supposed to arrive around New Years. Nothing but slightly below average temps or average it seems for the SE.

[DopplerWx]

DT's Snowstorm for the EC he predicted on Dec 19th is there but its not a snowstorm for the coast.

It seems like no one has said anything about cold that was supposed to arrive around New Years. Nothing but slightly below average temps or average it seems for the SE.

Have you been following the model runs? 18z GFS had the 0c line below nc for about 4 straight days. Euro has had some very cold runs as well.

[SN_Lover]

Guys, let's set all of this aside. Like it or not, meteorology is a science dominated by doubt. Differing opinions leads to a deeper understanding of the science and thus a better overall consensus. While questioning "red taggers" is frowned upon on this board, anyone can feel free to question my thinking at any point in time. Even non-formally trained mets may pick up on something that I don't see. While Robert is very well respected and an excellent forecaster, I don't think Wilkes meant anything overtly negative by his posts.

All of this being said, I am with Robert that without a solid high in the NE, the chances of sustained frozen precip in the SE are always worth questioning. This comes from one of the most knowledgeable and experienced synoptic professors and mets that I know. I believe anyone that went to NC State will know who I am referencing. Point being, cold chasing moisture rarely works out in the SE, as burger, eyewall, and others often post about. I want frozen precip as much as the next southerner, but we have to have a constant source of cold air. Merry Christmas (Happy Holidays) to all....let's remember we all want something frozen, though.

I agree. also frank strait, a met, said that this current low will not pull much cold air behind it. one other scenario i can see working is where it's clear during the night, then clouds blanket the area during the day, then snow at that night. but that would also need a high to the north.

http://www.accuweath...weekend/3179638

[HKY_WX]

GFS heading more towards the euro this run on the weekend system. Not a huge shock given the euro and euroENS are identical pretty much.

[DopplerWx]

gfs pops that secondary low which causes temps to be too warm for the 12/30 event.

[nrhardin]

I agree. also frank strait, a met, said that this current low will not pull much cold air behind it. one other scenario i can see working is where it's clear during the night, then clouds blanket the area during the day, then snow at that night. but that would also need a high to the north.

http://www.accuweath...weekend/3179638

While I generally agree, if you are relying on diurnal cloud cover and a nighttime storm, you are in trouble. Time after time in the SE, winter weather is driven by more dominate factors. Outside of the mountains, winter weather is contingent upon a continuous source of cold air. One exception is in favored CAD areas, particularly in NC and VA where in situ events can lock in solidly during marginal events. Another exception could be strong NW flow similar to this past Friday, but accumulations are negligible outside of the high country. Either the cold air is there or it's not. The SE is unique in that it requires a special set of synoptic conditions for everyone to cash in. Overall, we want a suppressed storm track with ample opportunity for diabatic cooling. Which often requires a source of cold, dry air.

I saw something in the banter thread about how latitude or being in the south doesn't translate b/c we are seeing TX, AR, and eastern TN cash in on this storm. Again, this is largely due to the fact that weather west of the Apps is completely different than that east of the Apps. The air is dry, the source of cold air (high pressure) is completely different (highs centered in the Plains), and storms are much less impacted by the Gulf and Atlantic inflow than we see in the SE. In short, the airmass is much more continental than maritime.

[HKY18]

GFS starts to eject the pacific s/w instead of closing it off I think the 18z ejected it as well. This has a ton of potential, as brandon and others have already mentioned

[burgertime]

While I generally agree, if you are relying on diurnal cloud cover and a nighttime storm, you are in trouble. Time after time in the SE, winter weather is driven by more dominate factors. Outside of the mountains, winter weather is contingent upon a continuous source of cold air. One exception is in favored CAD areas, particularly in NC and VA where in situ events can lock in solidly during marginal events. Another exception could be strong NW flow similar to this past Friday, but accumulations are negligible outside of the high country. Either the cold air is there or it's not. The SE is unique in that it requires a special set of synoptic conditions for everyone to cash in. Overall, we want a suppressed storm track with ample opportunity for diabatic cooling. Which often requires a source of cold, dry air.

I saw something in the banter thread about how latitude or being in the south doesn't translate b/c we are seeing TX, AR, and eastern TN cash in on this storm. Again, this is largely due to the fact that weather west of the Apps is completely different than that east of the Apps. The air is dry, the source of cold air (high pressure) is completely different (highs centered in the Plains), and storms are much less impacted by the Gulf and Atlantic inflow than we see in the SE. In short, the airmass is much more continental than maritime.

It seems a lot of folks also just are not aware of weather history in these states. Getting snow for them is not rare or unusual. My family is from central and west TX and snow is not some super rare event. Some years they get more than others, but I actually have pictures as a small child when it snowed about 3 or 4 inches south of Dallas...so it happens more than people typically think.

Folks are focusing on this upcoming storm this weekend, but to me the real prize is what's coming in behind it. Maybe a miracle can happen this weekend but it's looking if we're lucky an I-40 north storm. GFS certainly aint cutting it with the cold air. We'll see where this run goes with the next system. Thanks for the input as always.

[HKY_WX]

This board has had some weird vibes so far this winter. It has changed a lot since the 10-11 winter.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Looking at the 500mb maps at 126...decent PNA trying to pop out west but we need a better 50/50 IMO...I bet the 1/2 storm comes inland a bit.

[burgertime]

This board has had some weird vibes so far this winter. It has changed a lot since the 10-11 winter.

Everyone has been beaten down by last winter. I think last weeks and this weeks runs have been awesome. Tons of potential. Now just look to the GFS it's looks like it's locked and loaded with this next storm. I'm just personally not too invested with this storm this weekend. Hopefully it trends colder but still looks like it will probably not work out for MBY even if it does trend colder.

[Wow]

It seems a lot of folks also just are not aware of weather history in these states. Getting snow for them is not rare or unusual. My family is from central and west TX and snow is not some super rare event. Some years they get more than others, but I actually have pictures as a small child when it snowed about 3 or 4 inches south of Dallas...so it happens more than people typically think.

Folks are focusing on this upcoming storm this weekend, but to me the real prize is what's coming in behind it. Maybe a miracle can happen this weekend but it's looking if we're lucky an I-40 north storm. GFS certainly aint cutting it with the cold air. We'll see where this run goes with the next system. Thanks for the input as always.

I agree regarding the weekend system as well. First step is to find the cold air. If we're lacking the required high pressure over the Lakes/NE region, the frozen stuff is going to be confined nearer to the mountains, and that's that. We should all be aware of our issues with boundary layer temps over the past few years.

Speaking of HP, the storm headed here to kick off the new year has a lot of potential.. strong 50/50 low (sub-960mb slp?) should lock in our HP over the NE.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Everyone has been beaten down by last winter. I think last weeks and this weeks runs have been awesome. Tons of potential. Now just look to the GFS it's looks like it's locked and loaded with this next storm. I'm just personally not too invested with this storm this weekend. Hopefully it trends colder but still looks like it will probably not work out for MBY even if it does trend colder.

I'll second that motion...hasn't been the same in 2 winter seasons.

[burgertime]

Looking at the 500mb maps at 126...decent PNA trying to pop out west but we need a better 50/50 IMO...I bet the 1/2 storm comes inland a bit.

That s/w out west is digging and looks pretty juicy. I like the looks of it early on. We'll see what it can do.

[DopplerWx]

There's our low at 150hr over southern la.

[HKY_WX]

Everyone has been beaten down by last winter. I think last weeks and this weeks runs have been awesome. Tons of potential. Now just look to the GFS it's looks like it's locked and loaded with this next storm. I'm just personally not too invested with this storm this weekend. Hopefully it trends colder but still looks like it will probably not work out for MBY even if it does trend colder.

I guess we just need some snow to get the party started so to speak.

[burgertime]

Lots of cold air in eastern Canada on this run. Temps starting to sag down @171 with light precip and a really weak low around Charleston. This one could get interesting if that low around LA gets cranking.

[packbacker]

I guess we just need some snow to get the party started so to speak.

Can't imagine what this board would be like if we had another 2004/5-2007-08 stretch, can't imagine being on here for essentially 4 snowless winters.

[DopplerWx]

gfs seems faster...coming thru sav at 168hr.

EDIT: wrong low, ours is over la.

[WidreMann]

Can't imagine what this board would be like if we had another 2004/5-2007-08 stretch, can't imagine being on here for essentially 4 snowless winters.

I can. It'd probably be a lot like how it was in 04/05-07/08. Lots of teases, some periods of cold, and lots of disappointment. Come to think of it, most years are like that, though we get the occasional good storm.