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January Pattern and Storm Discussion


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Since we're getting close to wrapping up 2012 and one of the warmest Decembers in recent memory, it's almost time to turn our attention to January. As December looks to end with a bang, there are growing indications that the pattern looks to evolve into a colder and stormier one as we work into January.

Given that, I wanted to go ahead and start this thread before my man Wilkesboro got on the board. :)

We'll start with this and go from here:

CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20121219.201301.gif

CFSv2.NaPrecProb.20121219.201301.gif

Please continue to post December stuff in the December thread. Also, in the spirit of Christmas and the New Year, let's give Brick one weenie post. :)

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Since we're getting close to wrapping up 2012 and one of the warmest Decembers in recent memory, it's almost time to turn our attention to January. As December looks to end with a bang, there are growing indications that the pattern looks to evolve into a colder and stormier pattern as we work into January.

Given that, I wanted to go ahead and start this thread before my man Wilkesboro got on the board. :)

We'll start with this and go from here:

Please continue to post December stuff in the December thread. Also, in the spirit of Christmas and the New Year, let's give Brick one weenie post. :)

Your name as the thread starter makes me feel better.

My only concern is whether or not modeling will continue to struggle with the fast PAC flow. Gotta start seeing good long waves.

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Then when January comes, it will be like 70 and 80s everywhere and someone will say a pattern change will be coming at the middle to latter part of the month just like December went on and nothing happens.

Just messing around, hopefully we get some cold weather this month. I just want cold/dry/wind. If its warm then give me some thunderstorms.

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8-14 day outlook from CPC:

FOR DEC 27, 2012 - JAN 02, 2013

THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE

PATTERN, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS

CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LOW SPREAD IN AGREEING UPON BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS

ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH LARGER SPREAD ON THE WEST COAST. HIGH-LATITUDE, POSITIVE

HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTH AMERICA SEEM TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE,

TELECONNECTING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH OVER MOST OF THE CONUS,

WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK.

SOME TENDENCY TOWARD BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE FAR

NORTHWEST AS THE STORM TRACK SLIPS SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS MORE

UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE FORECAST IN THE EAST

FAVORS A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE

CENTRAL CONUS AND ALONG THE WEST COAST WHERE UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED

TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH

BECOMES AN IMPORTANT FACTOR. HOWEVER, INCREASED ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FORECAST REDUCES CONFIDENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

THE ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NEARLY THE

ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER OF NORTH AMERICA, INCLUDING EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN

CANADA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF

ALASKA IN RESPONSE TO THIS. RISING HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA POINT TOWARD A BETTER

CHANCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR IMPACTING THE CONUS, FIRST IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON THE POSITIVE HEIGHT CENTER JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY

ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HEIGHT FORECAST FROM ANALOGS. SINCE THE

PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE ANALOG BLEND AND THE MANUAL BLEND IS VERY HIGH,

THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE WEEK-2 PATTERN MIGHT BE TRANSIENT, WITH A POTENTIAL

REALIGNMENT TOWARD A MORE CANONICALLY NEGATIVE AO PATTERN THEREAFTER. WITH A

PERSISTENTLY NEGATIVE AO, THE OBSERVED SURFACE HYDROCLIMATE THIS MONTH REMAINS

UNUSUAL, PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE EXTENDED RANGE

FORECAST IS THE LACK OF ROBUST TROPICAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MJO,

WHICH HAS BEEN LARGELY INACTIVE FOR THE PAST MONTH, AND IS ONLY NOW SHOWING

POTENTIAL SIGNS OF WEAK REORGANIZATION.

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Your name as the thread starter makes me feel better.

My only concern is whether or not modeling will continue to struggle with the fast PAC flow. Gotta start seeing good long waves.

Here,here!!!

I fully endorse this, but I know what your game is. You've seen run after run on the GFS giving the SE shot after shot of a winter storm. You're just playing the odds in your favor that you've got the mojo! :snowing:

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As we end December and start Jan we have some agreement from the GFS ensembles and the Euro ensembles. Here are the 0z runs from both showing the pattern that we have been looking for. Notice how they both start building an Aleutian low with ridging over Alaska to the pole. Both establish cross polar flow and dislodge the cold that has been building up in Alaska. They both continue to show a strong -ao and a modest west based -nao. This is really a big change from the pattern that was in place last year, and the one that has been in place for Dec.00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

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I like the 11-15 Euro Ens, they have been looking better the last couple of days (not ideal)...if we could progress that into the 6-10 it would be nice but certainly still active and better looking CAD pattern for the other siders...

Here's the NCEP Superensemble Mean for the 8-14 day period. It does have a Miller B look to it. West -NAO anchored in, some troughing in Bering Sea area, and split flow in W North America. Matches up with ensemble images franklin posted as well. I'd like to see us get a good cold air mass to come out of N / NW Canada with more ridging in AK/NW Canada.

dec31h.png

Here's the 500mb composite NARR map if you plug in the 10 analogs dates from the superensemble....same type outcome, but in different look/format...

dec31narr.png

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Grit, just to add, the 12z gfs ensembles are bullish on the Aleutian low. And Europe is back in an ice age. Man, would I love to see that pattern setup for the southeast!

Yeah, from hr156 - 240 the Aleutian Low strengthens and the ridge builds in W Canada...and in response, the parent surface high drops from central Canada to the U.S. border at Minnesota. That's the type of evolution we need to see to get more of a bona fide cold air mass in here.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

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Don S is on board with a colder pattern as we go into January...he's been pretty much spot on so far this winter and was money last winter (warm throughout)...

"A blizzard is currently raging in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin. That storm represents yet another event in the ongoing evolution of the pattern that will culminate in a much colder pattern locking in over a large part of the United States and southern Canada."

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Don S is on board with a colder pattern as we go into January...he's been pretty much spot on so far this every winter and was money last winter (warm throughout)...

"A blizzard is currently raging in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin. That storm represents yet another event in the ongoing evolution of the pattern that will culminate in a much colder pattern locking in over a large part of the United States and southern Canada."

http://www.americanw...80#entry1928954

Fixed it for you. ;) But seriously, when Don honks I listen. Thanks CR for starting this thread...hope your mojo is still good!

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Since we're getting close to wrapping up 2012 and one of the warmest Decembers in recent memory, it's almost time to turn our attention to January. As December looks to end with a bang, there are growing indications that the pattern looks to evolve into a colder and stormier one as we work into January.

Given that, I wanted to go ahead and start this thread before my man Wilkesboro got on the board. :)

We'll start with this and go from here:

Please continue to post December stuff in the December thread. Also, in the spirit of Christmas and the New Year, let's give Brick one weenie post. :)

I approve of this thread :wub:

I like the 11-15 Euro Ens, they have been looking better the last couple of days (not ideal)...if we could progress that into the 6-10 it would be nice but certainly still active and better looking CAD pattern for the other siders...

This made me smile :hug:

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Just copying this in here from GA on the Euro Weeklies, which never seem to show cold...

Anyway, my take is that the brand new Euro weeklies look similarly chilly and wet to the prior run for much of the E US for the entire four week period. Also, the west based -NAO and the -AO blocks look impressive. Another absolutely excellent run for SE winter lovers.

Keep in mind that the runs from late November looking out at Dec. were mainly warm. So, they did pretty well with the warm 1st three weeks of Dec.

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And the board goes quiet, I have to agree that the subtle SE flat ridge is continuing to wreak havoc on winter weather chances in the SE. I know the models will change many times before New Years, but it does seem like the models keep delaying the arrival of the optimal pattern, I am usually quite the optimist but after last winter my patience is running thin...

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The 0Z GFS is much warmer (what's new Charlie Brown? lol) and the New Year's low tracks way NW of the 12Z and evn the 18Z tracks. It goes through TX and into the Ohio valley!

There's a big 50/50 low in place.. not going to happen with that kind of setup. Also a very nice +PNA western ridge. That s/w will dig and dig well with those 2 elements in place.

I agree to a DEgree that this storm has more potential than this one for next week.... just as the storm for next week has more potential than the storm that has come thru today. It is, indeed. a step down pattern.

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