QVectorman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-8. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. I mentioned this first torch stating it back on Dec. 14 saying it would be short lived with a cooler air behind it arriving sometime between Jan 5-8 and then transition into another warmer period for Jan 8-10 per GWO trigger. With a short wave Jan 10-11 ushering in colder air for Jan 10-13. Looks like you can get a feel for peak high temp ranges on the way for Jan 5-6 and Jan 8-10 warm ups by adding 15-20F on to the lowest high temps you see this thurs/fri jan. 3-4 across the interior NE. Although the Jan 5-6 temps could be say only 10-15F warmer if the timing of the warmer air @ 850mb arrives/passes over during the night time hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Vomit worthy. Let's turn the page and start to chip away at this horrendous looking pattern. Happy New Year to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 yep just saw the cpc map for above normal january after a first week averaging below normal..its coming, whether its upper thirties and forties or aggresively warmer like last year kind of warmth. maybe feb will deliver, and all the talk of how great january looked for the past month..its so depressing. i lived through the horrific winters in the 80s to early 90s and i feel like we are headed back in that direction once again. last year outside of October there was a one week window or so that was rather wintry, well looks like we get about a two week window here, last week with some snow (not everyone got crushed as my area sits right at climo, perhaps fractionally above) and now some cold. the torch won't be denied and the signal has gotten very strong over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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