CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yeah I told Kevin in the other it could easily be a disaster if we are on the other side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It does look to get towards the ugly side for a time...even here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 We'll be fine in New England folks. Have faith. Torch stays sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 NJ winter I saw that but also noted how the GFS ens are dropping the anamoly each run Well I trust the euro more for obvious reasons, and the 00z/06z gfs ensembles have now come into line with an eastern u.s. torch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 We'll be fine in New England folks. Have faith. Torch stays sw Take plenty of pics. We'll need to reload the pack later in the month but It looks ok till at least 1/8-10. Quite likely that we mega torch without any kind of blocking and a more hostile pacific. Thankfully it appears that will not be long lived but even Don S is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 the cold just doesn't want to get here-we've had a couple of cold days (and a few more to come this week) and it delivered a nice storm for everyone, but it's close to the coldest point of winter, so the "cold" isn't really that noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 This ain't pretty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Take plenty of pics. We'll need to reload the pack later in the month but It looks ok till at least 1/8-10. Quite likely that we mega torch without any kind of blocking and a more hostile pacific. Thankfully it appears that will not be long lived but even Don S is on board. The Euro ens keep the boundary near or just south of us. Scooter posted it in other thread. Doesn't mean cold, but we should be able keep any torch Sw of us and if boundary is nearby can give shots of wintry precip. This isn't like what we had in early Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The Euro ens keep the boundary near or just south of us. Scooter posted it in other thread. Doesn't mean cold, but we should be able keep any torch Sw of us and if boundary is nearby can give shots of wintry precip. This isn't like what we had in early Dec Yeah but you can't take a 14 day prog seriously. The pattern probably would argue mild imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Can we finally get a muted torch?? I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yeah but you can't take a 14 day prog seriously. The pattern probably would argue mild imo. As Dec proved LR forecasting is not possible with great degree of accuracy. I don't take any LR stuff too serious anymore. Just going by instincts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Jan thaw will happen then we reload. In the meantime full on winter. Not too bitter but definitely sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 This ain't pretty... congrats Fort George, Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Verbatim Kevin may be right. Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 January looks wall to wall wintry. Deep deep winter .http://origin.cpc.nc...sT2mMonInd1.gif Looks like a fail right off the bat LR forecasting is tough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Verbatim Kevin may be right. Lets hope. you can see the bering sea ridging and the slightly farther south PV helping out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Geez in 15 day period we end up with above normal for maybe 3-4 days at best and that's what seems to be emphazized. IDK seems like some have a fetish for being Debbie's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Geez in 15 day period we end up with above normal for maybe 3-4 days at best and that's what seems to be emphazized. IDK seems like some have a fetish for being Debbie's. Meh. I'm fine with a near normal pattern but it looks boring as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Meh. I'm fine with a near normal pattern but it looks boring as hell. So true, keep the pack up North with no rain cutters and hope the in the bank energy as Rick Logan says eventually produces. Tiny signs of possible clippers rotating around the PV, maybe one pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Meh. I'm fine with a near normal pattern but it looks boring as hell. Yeah if we had an exciting system to track in the medium range, I'm sure any talk of a thaw would be put on the back burner. Next week or so looks really boring. Heck, maybe during our thaw, we actually are far enough north to get in on a SWFE or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yeah if we had an exciting system to track in the medium range, I'm sure any talk of a thaw would be put on the back burner. Next week or so looks really boring. Heck, maybe during our thaw, we actually are far enough north to get in on a SWFE or something. Yeah I'd prefer a real mild up to bring us some storminess. This coming week looks brutal. Cold continues for ski country though so good news for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Geez in 15 day period we end up with above normal for maybe 3-4 days at best and that's what seems to be emphazized. IDK seems like some have a fetish for being Debbie's. I thought we were trying to have a discussion?..was I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 what a difference a week makes in talking about the long term...i remember reading about a huge overnunning event for the first few days of jan ....it does look really dull for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 If we wanted to try and get a realistic chance for some measurable snow in the next week ot 10 days, the shortwave dropping south at day 4 would be a shot. The Canadian was pretty amped with it and several of the GEFS members were too...would try and form an inverted trough or even a late blooming coastal to drop some snow before it exited. Low probability but certainly not impossible. Up toward downeast Maine would have a better shot...somewhat of a Norlun signal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Meh. I'm fine with a near normal pattern but it looks boring as hell. Pretty much sums it up till mid January at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It's way out but it is hard to imagine a worse pattern for winter lovers albiet not with a permanent look thankfully. GEFS are much warmer now. In this image, cross polar is completely cut off. We'd have to have manufactured cold and it isn't a pattern to do that. January thaw th some spectacular temps possible before deeper winter to close the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 what a difference a week makes in talking about the long term...i remember reading about a huge overnunning event for the first few days of jan ....it does look really dull for quite a while. No more epic January talk....I have about normal snowfall on the season, though...so can't really complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 what a difference a week makes in talking about the long term...i remember reading about a huge overnunning event for the first few days of jan ....it does look really dull for quite a while. we needed actual cold air for that to happen-no cold air, no event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 What is this talk of no cold air? This entire next 7 days is below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 What is this talk of no snow? This entire next 7 days has no snow. FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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