40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Jan 2011 Lite, me thinks....HM, where you at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 The arctic looks to remain favorable, while the Pacific looks to at least cease to be hideous, if not better. One thing is for certain, no way will this resemble January 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm inclined to agree, December has been a wash for many of us but the combination of climo and factors changing for the better makes me say prepare for real winter wx. History shows a lackluster December does not = a deathblow to winter prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I think January looks to start out pretty good all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'm inclined to agree, December has been a wash for many of us but the combination of climo and factors changing for the better makes me say prepare for real winter wx. History shows a lackluster December does not = a deathblow to winter prospects. Depends on where you live. Someone posted the other day in the NY forum that of the top 20 warm Decembers, 19 had less than average snow in NYC. I think this one was in the top 7 or 8. It doesn't mean a death blow but it does have some correlation to being more lousy the further south you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 There has never been so much pressure on jan to do something.esp in boston.......or things will become dowmright dire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah saki/messenger you're right on that, I probably shouldn't be applying that so generally but I meant more for where I am. The further south you go generally the smaller your window of wintertunity is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Jan 2011 Lite, me thinks....HM, where you at? I've been dropping January nuggets all over this forum. I'm this close (you obviously can't see my finger spacing lol) to calling the 1/5-1/10 time frame a KU possibility (the B&K wave likes 1/2-1/4, the AAM wave like 1/4-1/8 and the sun likes 1/5-1/10 haha). The Aleutian Low / PNA ridge idea has a lot of model support and is possibly driven by partial feedback from the stratosphere, as well as the complete retrogression of the B&K wave. The NAO looks to continue negative through Jan 10. I'm looking at a possible Heather signal then per AAM and solar stuff. The one thing missing is the analogs which are not as adamant about a KU. They would suggest a big storm but not historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The B & K wave have to do with pacific retrogression correct? I forgot what that stood for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 January sure looks to start out nice with ridging into AK along with a weak ridge poking into Greenland helping to drag colder air into the CONUS with s/w amplification thanks to how the west looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks like the ECM tries for a Miller B at Day 9, an active finish to a benign month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The B & K wave have to do with pacific retrogression correct? I forgot what that stood for. Yeah, it's their last names. His name is Grant Branstator: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/research/profiles/2011/branstator.profile.html He has a lot of good work. The "K" is for Kirshner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just looked at the GFS, looks like a possible storm to bring in the new year and cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just looked at the GFS, looks like a possible storm to bring in the new year and cold.. Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS LR is looking almost '94-esque...finally gets the PV over here and tries to park it near Hudson Bay with a huge -EPO. That is how we would get arctic air into the CONUS...get that robust -EPO block churning and opening the spillway from Siberia over to this side of the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS LR is looking almost '94-esque...finally gets the PV over here and tries to park it near Hudson Bay with a huge -EPO. That is how we would get arctic air into the CONUS...get that robust -EPO block churning and opening the spillway from Siberia over to this side of the pole. All the GFS runs seem to replace the -NAO/Central Canada block with a potent -EPO, leading to a strong cold air drain into the CONUS. I think it's early to say whether the PV migrates more to our side or stays near Siberia where we have the anomalous low heights behind the block, but in any case January should start colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 From what I'm looking at -NAO seems west based which is definitely a good thing to accompany the AK ridging pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 So...about January.....can we fast forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That January pattern is dependent on how the area from AK to the west coast work out. Is it stable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z GFS OP is train wreck unless you like the same crap pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That January pattern is dependent on how the area from AK to the west coast work out. Is it stable? have any lr solutions been locks. we should anticipate it to turn to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z GFS OP is train wreck unless you like the same crap pattern. It looks cold and stormy until 300 hours out. I hope you're not looking past 300 hours? There's a near miss at Day 8 on the 0z GFS...powerful storm is just off the coast because the trough axis is a bit east, but has a nice +PNA and a strong low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't know how long the better pattern lasts as there are signs the PAC jet may increase again, especially of the MJO progs are right. The first week looks good verbatim, but the longevity and stability of this pattern IMHO is sort of questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't know how long the better pattern lasts as there are signs the PAC jet may increase again, especially of the MJO progs are right. The first week looks good verbatim, but the longevity and stability of this pattern IMHO is sort of questionable. you forgot merry ****ing x-mas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If the euro ensembles are right and they try to show signs of rebuilding a ridge just west of AK, then it could probably borrow us some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 CFS is bitter thru week 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 you forgot merry ****ing x-mas. It's not a forecast so don't go buying ropes...I just don't know how stable it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It's not a forecast so don't go buying ropes...I just don't know how stable it is. OK, but just fyi, I already had rope in the garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't know how long the better pattern lasts as there are signs the PAC jet may increase again, especially of the MJO progs are right. The first week looks good verbatim, but the longevity and stability of this pattern IMHO is sort of questionable. Back on 12/15 or so, I was thinking that things would be a little bit more gradual with a PNA shift and a bit later on in January due to wave lengths and an ill-defined MJO signal. But then on 12/20, I stated exactly your concerns here and shifted everything earlier. The B/K wave, kelvin wave through the IO, residual -AO/low sun and -AAM propagation are all saying the first 10 days of the month have the cold. GFS will of course break down the PNA spike too quickly but it will be inevitable that it does mid-Jan as the forcing moves into Indonesia. Expect a warm period then. I joked around in the Mid Atlantic forum back on the 20th saying we couldn't really call it a "thaw" when we were never frozen to begin with, haha. From this point on, we watch the stratospheric vortex break down and hope we can setup another gradient pattern potential late Jan-early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Back on 12/15 or so, I was thinking that things would be a little bit more gradual with a PNA shift and a bit later on in January due to wave lengths and an ill-defined MJO signal. But then on 12/20, I stated exactly your concerns here and shifted everything earlier. The B/K wave, kelvin wave through the IO, residual -AO/low sun and -AAM propagation are all saying the first 10 days of the month have the cold. GFS will of course break down the PNA spike too quickly but it will be inevitable that it does mid-Jan as the forcing moves into Indonesia. Expect a warm period then. I joked around in the Mid Atlantic forum back on the 20th saying we couldn't really call it a "thaw" when we were never frozen to begin with, haha. From this point on, we watch the stratospheric vortex break down and hope we can setup another gradient pattern potential late Jan-early February. uh oh..HM last week you said 2nd week in January, now late January early Feb?..I'm starting to get this 96-97 winter feeling..except this December has been much warmer..neutral winters after La Nina's are not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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