Central Illinois Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro isn't anything special and still transfers to the coast...but still solid for IN/OH/SEMI. 6-10". Just wondering anything for IL in that solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm guessing you have Euro text data? I do... close to 1" near CMH... more like .75" along I-80 in OH... DET also around .7 or .75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just wondering anything for IL in that solution? And what about South Central Indiana...near Seymour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just wondering anything for IL in that solution? Yeah south side of the state gets in on .4-.6" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Guessing if Columbus gets an inch of liquid that Dayton is in that same ballpark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I do... close to 1" near CMH... more like .75" along I-80 in OH... DET also around .7 or .75" been awhile since we've seen numbers like that for sure. Like almost two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 In addition to the potential storms, there is a feature on the hemispheric maps that excites me substantially, if you look at the Euro, you'll notice a very powerful UL jet streak (possibly over 200 kts) associated with an abnormally tight pressure gradient that has been over Asia slowly moving eastward. In the 168-192 hours, you'll notice this feature (I've circled it) migrating eastward, things could get very hairy should this make it to the west coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Guessing if Columbus gets an inch of liquid that Dayton is in that same ballpark? Around .75" or so... CMH was actually .94". It's a very interesting solution to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Around .75" or so... CMH was actually .94". It's a very interesting solution to say the least Considering the track guessing mostly snow which is pretty much in line with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm guessing you have Euro text data? A somewhat decent free website for Euro QPF output (updates at 2 am/pm) is yr.no. Here's what it has for Ann Arbor: http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Ann_Arbor/long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 In addition to the potential storms, there is a feature on the hemispheric maps that excites me substantially, if you look at the Euro, you'll notice a very powerful UL jet streak (possibly over 200 kts) associated with an abnormally tight pressure gradient that has been over Asia slowly moving eastward. In the 168-192 hours, you'll notice this feature (I've circled it) migrating eastward, things could get very hairy should this make it to the west coast... I'm interested in hearing more about this, such as what impacts a feature like that would have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm interested in hearing more about this, such as what impacts a feature like that would have? Should it continue relatively unabated, it would have the potential to carve out a pretty impressive system, but this is far out so it's best just to wait for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 LMK getting excited... A much more significant weather system will arrive on the 26th. Both the 00z GFS/ECM and ensembles track a strong low pressure system just to the west of the Appalachian spine which may set us up for our first significant snow. If the low pressure system takes its current forecast track, precipitation would enter the area Wed morning with the bulk of precip occurring Wed during the day and then exiting late Wed night or Thurs morning. Although there is still much uncertainty in the track of this weather system 6 days out, the possibility is there for significant snow based on the low track and anticipated thermal profiles. BUFKIT GFS showed 8 inches at SDF with a little more than 0.5 inch of qpf. The soundings denote a classic heavy snow sounding with subzero and deep isothermal layer super saturated. The synoptic features of interest are a 110 kt jet max entering a the base of a deepening trough. For now will have 60% pops on the 26th with rain in the morning and then snow in the afternoon and Wed night. Bing Crosby`s I`m dreaming of a White Christmas may happen, just 24 hours later. Stay tuned for upcoming forecast updates as this weather system may put a kink in holiday travel plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 IND AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 330 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2012 THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND MONDAY. THE SECOND ONE IS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WHICH SEVERAL MODELS STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE AND EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SNOW MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS OUT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND AND ANY MENTION OF PRECIP HAS BEEN REMOVED. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS ON THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. THE GEM MODEL TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ONLY GENERATE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW AROUND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE EURO AND GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. IF THE EUROPEAN IS CORRECT...THIS COULD DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR SNOW STORM. ALL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO THE QUESTION WILL BE POPS AND EVENTUALLY HOW MUCH. GIVEN THAT THE EUROPEAN LOOKS PRETTY POTENT AND THE GFS ALSO SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR REGION...WILL NOT LOWER POPS ANYWHERE WEDNESDAY DESPITE ALL BLEND AND CONSALL NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE. ALL MODELS INDICATE ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ABOUT OVER BY THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION 20 PERCENT POPS. WENT NEAR ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN THE EURO AND MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER TOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 06Z GFS was close to being BIG, but another swing and miss. Still a good run for Ohio and parts of Kentucky. Indiana/Illinois gets the shaft... EDIT: Also noteworthy...this run was warmer than the 00Z. EURO has certainly been more consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A somewhat decent free website for Euro QPF output (updates at 2 am/pm) is yr.no. Here's what it has for Ann Arbor: http://www.yr.no/pla...Arbor/long.html WOW...AWESOME link! Thanks! Just have to convert mm to in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro isn't anything special and still transfers to the coast...but still solid for IN/OH/SEMI. 6-10". Let's be real, 6-10" would be pretty special for some/many of us. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A somewhat decent free website for Euro QPF output (updates at 2 am/pm) is yr.no. Here's what it has for Ann Arbor: http://www.yr.no/pla...Arbor/long.html That's pretty nice. Thanks. Let's be real, 6-10" would be pretty special for some/many of us. Lock it up. I'd love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 To my untrained eye it appears the 0z Euro and the 0z GFS was a pretty decent hit for southern sections of Illinois/Indiana.... maybe EVV will break their snow drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 interesting 00z runs. GFS held serve. Euro kept with basic idea of storm yet weaker. BUT ggem, ukie, and nogaps all crushed the storm OTS. I thought it was odd to see three models suddenly come up with that solution together. Not sure if that's a signal for a trend east or not. I still think most likely change to track would be further nw with more phasing showing up. Just looking at the 6z nogaps, (yea I know), but it did bring back the app runner again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS creeping ever so slowly to a EURO solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Interesting disco on next weeks storm. Goldilocks position of the front? THE REASON WHY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A POWERFUL WINTER CYCLONE IN THE PLAINS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /OR COLD FRONT/ WHEN THE DISTURBANCE REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TREND IN MOST OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVELS OVER TEXAS WITHOUT STRENGTHENING BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK SO FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM THUS DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXISTS. THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...IS ONE THAT WOULD ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIP. THIS IS BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND HAS NO ACCESS TO THE THERMAL GRADIENTS IT NEEDS TO INTENSIFY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW WOULD BE ABLE AUGMENT THE WIND FIELDS AND THUS TAP INTO THE GULF FOR MOISTURE. IN ORDER TO GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM HERE...WE WOULD NEED THE FRONT TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT NOT SO FAR NORTH THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS POLEWARD TURN AND STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION ALTOGETHER. WE NEED A GOLDILOCKS POSITION OF THIS FRONT. AGAIN...KNOWING THE PRECISE LOCATION OF A FRONT BEYOND 5 DAYS IS THE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS FORECAST. THANKFULLY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND WILL BE SAMPLED BY THE BALLOON NETWORK. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE IN RANGE OF THE NAM BY TOMORROW FOR HAVING ANOTHER OPINION ON THIS FRONT/S STRENGTH AND LOCATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EVEN IF WE DONT GET AN EXPLICIT DEC 25TH FORECAST FROM THE NAM UNTIL SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Interesting disco on next weeks storm. Goldilocks position of the front? THE REASON WHY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A POWERFUL WINTER CYCLONE IN THE PLAINS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /OR COLD FRONT/ WHEN THE DISTURBANCE REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TREND IN MOST OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVELS OVER TEXAS WITHOUT STRENGTHENING BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK SO FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM THUS DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXISTS. THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...IS ONE THAT WOULD ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIP. THIS IS BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND HAS NO ACCESS TO THE THERMAL GRADIENTS IT NEEDS TO INTENSIFY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW WOULD BE ABLE AUGMENT THE WIND FIELDS AND THUS TAP INTO THE GULF FOR MOISTURE. IN ORDER TO GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM HERE...WE WOULD NEED THE FRONT TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT NOT SO FAR NORTH THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS POLEWARD TURN AND STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION ALTOGETHER. WE NEED A GOLDILOCKS POSITION OF THIS FRONT. AGAIN...KNOWING THE PRECISE LOCATION OF A FRONT BEYOND 5 DAYS IS THE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS FORECAST. THANKFULLY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND WILL BE SAMPLED BY THE BALLOON NETWORK. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE IN RANGE OF THE NAM BY TOMORROW FOR HAVING ANOTHER OPINION ON THIS FRONT/S STRENGTH AND LOCATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EVEN IF WE DONT GET AN EXPLICIT DEC 25TH FORECAST FROM THE NAM UNTIL SATURDAY. 12z nogaps loses the storm completely. The little xmas eve frontrunner flattens heights out ahead and the Dec 26th 'storm' is basically a front heading off the southeast coast. I looked at the gfs and thought I might have to worry about a nw warm shift.....then the nogaps crushes it into oblivion.... this only 4-5 days out now too...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z GFS looks good for Indy and points south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 per the 12Z GFS looks like it wants to give EVV a nice 2-5" snowfall.... if I'm reading it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Was looking like a Madison or Chicago special but the high to the NW means business now. Good Luck to all especially, Buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 per the 12Z GFS looks like it wants to give EVV a nice 2-5" snowfall.... if I'm reading it correctly. wanna up that by about 3-4 on your ranges and your about right. The GFS is a pretty close match to Evansville's last big snowstorm, the December 23-24, 2004 storm that dumped 21" on Evansville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ukie and gem east coast. Not gonna lie, kinda bummed about this one... Not feeling good about it at all anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hopefully Buckeye will get socked and the storm will create the right type of wind field to set off LES over here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 wanna up that by about 3-4 on your ranges and your about right. The GFS is a pretty close match to Evansville's last big snowstorm, the December 23-24, 2004 storm that dumped 21" on Evansville Thanks for the heads up, I was trying to view the images on my phone at work. I'm going to be happy with any snow I see falling while I'm there next week. I remember that storm well... it was the first christmas I spent with my in-laws. They were impressed that I volunteered to go out every 30 minutes or so to shovel the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.