PatrickSumner Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro verbatim shows around 5-6" over far southeastern/eastern MI, with very significant amounts over Ohio (12"+). Not to mention a 1-4" snowfall early Christmas. What about South Central Indiana??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Modest lake signal on the 12z GFS, taken verbatim. Surely if this thing slides to the east, there could be a lake event somewhere in Northern Indiana/Southwest Michigan (and other locals benefiting from a N-NW flow). Obviously nothing can be said until we get a lot closer to event time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 No. It'll be fun if we get 8-16" of snow. If it's a Mid Atlantic snowstorm my head is going through my computer monitor. Agreed. If this misses like how the 12z GFS shows it's going to be, things are going to get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 FWIW the GEFS mean has a pretty strong signal for a storm around the new year. Hmmm sounds like DEC 1998 going onto JAN 1999 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What about South Central Indiana??? http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Take a look yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 12z EURO had a March 8th 2008 look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Take a look yourself Not sure how to use the link...ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro keep me in the screw zone too... (I know. I should be in the complaint thread.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro keep me in the screw zone too... (I know. I should be in the complaint thread.) Not much here for Seymour either...a couple of inches according to the EURO. I'll take the 12Z GFS and run... (I know for many of you...that was a miss) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As a word of encouragement, we all know how the GFS tends to have a progressive bias with these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndyRayne Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not much here for Seymour either...a couple of inches according to the EURO. I'll take the 12Z GFS and run... (I know for many of you...that was a miss) I'm rooting for Southern-ish Indiana (South of 1-70) too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As a word of encouragement, we all know how the GFS tends to have a progressive bias with these things. True. But the GGEM doesn't. It's bomb happy just like the UKIE. So that's why I'm a little trepidatious about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwassmer Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 My backyard would get some serious "snow love" from the GFS and Euro models at this point, but we're still 5-6 days away from this thing really ramping up. Way early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Did we have a white Christmas in 2005? I don't remember that at all, in fact I remember it pouring rain that Christmas! Maybe there was still snow on the ground... likewise in 2008. We had like 18" of snow a few days before Christmas but a ton of slush by Christmas day, because it turned to rain on Christmas Eve. 2002-2004 were glorious years though, especially 2002 and 2004 with the Christmas eve-day snowstorm in '02 and that big storm that dropped 6-12" or so over the area a couple days prior to Christmas in 2004. I think it was around zero on Christmas morning too. You are correct. We had pouring rain in 2005, but still a solid, soggy snowcover (the rain did turn to slushy snow on Christmas Eve). Per the record books, THAT is a White Christmas, but snow showers swirling in the air but not sticking, or a snowstorm that begins after 7am, is not 2002 snowstorm lasted about 10pm Christmas Eve to 3pm Christmas Day 2003 snowfall lasted from 9pm Christmas Eve to 3pm Christmas Day 2004 snowstorm hit on 22/23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 EURO ensemble mean has 1008mb low over E TN at 144 and takes it to NYC by 168 at 1001mb. There's "bagginess" in the isobars to the west of the track, which is an indication that there are probably a large number of individual ensemble members depicting an OP like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Still holding on to my idea of track somewhere between CLE and BUK. The most recent guidance favors a path through BUF and that seems logical. SeMI will be placed on weenie suicide watch if a CLE track fails and BUF wins. Teetering on the edge of the early Winter cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I know some will disagree with me, but I'd gladly sacrifice snow on Christmas if it meant a monster storm for here right after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I know some will disagree with me, but I'd gladly sacrifice snow on Christmas if it meant a monster storm for here right after it. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Meh, although some say we've been in the best spot for frequent 6-10" storms in the last 5 years, we're also just about the only place that hasn't seen a major 12"+ storm in much of the Northeast and Midwest (including places such as Milwaukee and Minneapolis, which some will say have had it worse than us). So as long as we see a major 12"+ storm this year, I'll be perfectly satisfied with an overall lackluster winter. We arent just about the only place who hasnt seen a widespread 12"+ storm in the last 5 years, but we are one of the few whose big daddy record is from so long ago. From 2007-08 thru 2011-12 MSP had 7 storms of 6"+, DTW had 11. DTW also had much more snowfall in total. BUT DTWs biggest storm was under 11" and MSP had one over 16". Its all personal preference, if we had a winter with one major 12"+ storm but the rest of the winter sucked, youd STILL see tons of complaining (maybe not from you tho). Ive been on these boards too long and seen too many types of winters to prove this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I know some will disagree with me, but I'd gladly sacrifice snow on Christmas if it meant a monster storm for here right after it. Not being one who partakes in Christmas....I violently agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro verbatim shows around 5-6" over far southeastern/eastern MI, with very significant amounts over Ohio (12"+). Not to mention a 1-4" snowfall early Christmas. This would be perfect (and fwiw Id say euro verbatum is indicating a 2-5" type snow on Christmas). I would MIND missing Christmas snow if a 12"+ storm hit 2 days later, but Id take either or. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This would be perfect (and fwiw Id say euro verbatum is indicating a 2-5" type snow on Christmas). I would MIND missing Christmas snow if a 12"+ storm hit 2 days later, but Id take either or. 2 inches of mood snows or a 8-12" monster. The answer is simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just read LC's facebook post in regards to next weeks storm.. Says St. Louis to Chicago to Detroit for the best snows .. Then Indy to Cleveland to Buffalo and Toronto for ice issues. Says things are still way up in the air though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 IWX AFD w/respect to next week: LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD ARE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY SNOW. FOR THIS PACKAGE...OVERALL VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH MASS FIELDS AMONG THE ECMWF AND GFS TENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...FAVOR A GEM/CIPS ANALOG BLEND. THESE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE GFS IN THIS PATTERN TENDS TO INITIALLY TRACK THE SFC LOW TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...KEPT A HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD...SO WITH A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FEEL THAT THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. OTHERWISE...A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just read LC's facebook post in regards to next weeks storm.. Says St. Louis to Chicago to Detroit for the best snows .. Then Indy to Cleveland to Buffalo and Toronto for ice issues. Says things are still way up in the air though.. sounds like November 2006 type track, only shifted east about 200 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 2 inches of mood snows or a 8-12" monster. The answer is simple. I meant I would take either the package set of the 2-5" Christmas snow AND 4-6" from the OH storm....OR....the 12" OH storm outright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 DTX being very vague about next week, but cant blame them this far out THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SYSTEMS FOR NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS IS NOW RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT MID-WEEK SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST ONLY CLIPPING OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE GFS SOLUTION. ECMWF STILL HAS A MORE DEVELOPED SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A WELL ORGANIZED MID-WEEK SYSTEM JUST TO OUR EAST POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. NOT ONLY ARE THE MODELS INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER...BUT THEY ARE ALSO INCONSISTENT AMONG THEMSELVES OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EURO BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS. OVERALL...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD UNTIL WE BECOME MORE CERTAIN ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND THERE IS BETTER SAMPLING OF THE OVERALL PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ILN's take on this storm. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 432 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A CHALLENGING AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FCST PERIOD WITH TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE CWA. FIRST SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE HAS LITTLE IF ANY WINTER POTENTIAL. LATEST GFS HAS WEAK SYSTEM MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH PORTIONS OF CWA WHILE ECMWF MORE POTENT. WILL GO WITH A BLEND BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW FOR MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. BELIEVE ARRIVAL WILL BE LATE ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MIX MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. MODELS ALL DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH OF A WINTER IMPACT ON THE CWA...MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING ON PLACEMENT OF STORM AND THUS PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNT. PREVIOUS MODELS HAD SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF AREA BUT NOW HAVE MOVED IT TO EAST. THIS HAS PUT CWA IN FAVORABLE SNOW OR MIX AREA AND SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EVENT. IF MODELS TREND ANY FURTHER EASTWARD...SOMEWHAT LESS SNOW AND WINTRY MIX WOULD OCCUR. WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN MOST OF LONG RAIN PERIOD ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY IF SNOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT WHICH COULD CERTAINLY BE THE CASE IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18Z GFS is going to be...bleh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Difference handling the clipperish system shows how far apart these models are. We are at least two to three days away from any kind of model consensus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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