Ajdos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Meh, although some say we've been in the best spot for frequent 6-10" storms in the last 5 years, we're also just about the only place that hasn't seen a major 12"+ storm in much of the Northeast and Midwest (including places such as Milwaukee and Minneapolis, which some will say have had it worse than us). So as long as we see a major 12"+ storm this year, I'll be perfectly satisfied with an overall lackluster winter. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Meh, although some say we've been in the best spot for frequent 6-10" storms in the last 5 years, we're also just about the only place that hasn't seen a major 12"+ storm in much of the Northeast and Midwest (including places such as Milwaukee and Minneapolis, which some will say have had it worse than us). So as long as we see a major 12"+ storm this year, I'll be perfectly satisfied with an overall lackluster winter. This area did get a 12"+ event on New Years 2008. There were widespread amounts of 12-17" North of 59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 This area did get a 12"+ event on New Years 2008. There were widespread amounts of 12-17" North of 59. Yeah, I meant *Detroit*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah, I meant *Detroit*. you might be waiting for a very long time. Detroit is not prone to 12"+ events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 you might be waiting for a very long time. Detroit is not prone to 12"+ events. True. But I just want the record to show how irritating it is to see just about every other major locale in the Northeast and Midwest log at least one 12"+ snowstorm in the last 5 years but us in spite of us seeing so many 6-10" storms, probably more than everyone else some will say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What a heartbreaking cut off to the north. If this happens, it will solidify LAF and OKK as the Screw Zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah I'm punching something if that happens. Though I guess it's a good thing that hardly any models have had a good LAF/OKK hit yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah I'm punching something if that happens. Though I guess it's a good thing that hardly any models have had a good LAF/OKK hit yet. I still like our chances with this one (note: I'd consider even predominantly mix somewhat of a victory considering the lack of wintry wx so far). Not too concerned about a miss to the SE...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 True. But I just want the record to show how irritating it is to see just about every other major locale in the Northeast and Midwest log at least one 12"+ snowstorm but us in spite of us seeing so many 6-10" storms, probably more than everyone else some will say. If you do get a favorable track most and every single time, low gets transferred to the coast which Is why we always cap off at a 6-10" event and minus a major water source that doesn't help either. It is what it is. 2005-2011 was a fluke. It appears we are back to "normalish kind of winters" I looked at data for Detroit. There's only been 3 (1886,1900,1974) storms of 15"+ in 126 years. 2.3% chance of getting event like that. . 11 storms of 12"+ 8.7%. So basically once every 12 years Detroit gets a 12" storm. Once every 42 years Detroit gets a 15"+ event. So we are do People around Detroit need to lower there expectations on big snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Nice if this comes a little west, would be the first big storm since Groundhog Day here in Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah I'm punching something if that happens. Though I guess it's a good thing that hardly any models have had a good LAF/OKK hit yet. no kidding there, that's our only hope right now, oh well at least we've seen more than 1" of snow in a day in less than 700 days unlike Evansville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z Euro is a monster app runner. That lead wave is key. If it gets too strong as some recent runs suggest, then it would suppress the height fields and keep the second event a bit more suppressed...something to keep an eye on for folks in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z Euro is a monster app runner. That lead wave is key. If it gets too strong as some recent runs suggest, then it would suppress the height fields and keep the second event a bit more suppressed...something to keep an eye on for folks in my area. Massive run for Ohio...widespread 1.25"+ QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What a heartbreaking cut off to the north. If this happens, it will solidify LAF and OKK as the Screw Zone. I thought you had turned off the snow shield for this season?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z Euro is a monster app runner. That lead wave is key. If it gets too strong as some recent runs suggest, then it would suppress the height fields and keep the second event a bit more suppressed...something to keep an eye on for folks in my area. Interesting theory. But doesn't the EURO have the strongest lead wave of all the guidance at 12z? Yet it still has a the most wound up solution for wave 2. I think the key is those s/ws rotating around the vortex over northern QC that today's storm is going to form. Interact and phase or disjointed and suppressed. Irrational aside: there's a better chance the Mayans are right about tomorrow than the 12z EURO verifying. Anything that shows snow over YYZ you know is off its rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 UKIE only goes out to 144, but judging by how the trough is already going neg tilt over the MS River, I'm thinking phasing and a EURO like solution would occur if extrapolated. So at least we got a tag team going on here. EURO is the best model out there, but it's always nice when there's additional model support, especially when a solution is particularly anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Interesting theory. But doesn't the EURO have the strongest lead wave of all the guidance at 12z? Yet it still has a the most wound up solution for wave 2. I think the key is those s/ws rotating around the vortex over northern QC that today's storm is going to form. Interact and phase or disjointed and suppressed. Irrational aside: there's a better chance the Mayans are right about tomorrow than the 12z EURO verifying. Anything that shows snow over YYZ you know is off its rocker. Yeah, but to me it means that the second one could try to come out farther west if the phasing is right and the first wave doesn't blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It appears that UKIE showing a good hit for SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It appears that UKIE showing a good hit for SEMI ...er, it only goes out to 144hr...storm just forming at the end of the run. EDIT Unless you're talking about the weak lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 UKIE only goes out to 144, but judging by how the trough is already going neg tilt over the MS River, I'm thinking phasing and a EURO like solution would occur if extrapolated. So at least we got a tag team going on here. EURO is the best model out there, but it's always nice when there's additional model support, especially when a solution is particularly anomalous. Add the NOGAPS to the list as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro verbatim shows around 5-6" over far southeastern/eastern MI, with very significant amounts over Ohio (12"+). Not to mention a 1-4" snowfall early Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Add the NOGAPS to the list as well. lol, that's actually a strike against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 UKIE only goes out to 144, but judging by how the trough is already going neg tilt over the MS River, I'm thinking phasing and a EURO like solution would occur if extrapolated. So at least we got a tag team going on here. EURO is the best model out there, but it's always nice when there's additional model support, especially when a solution is particularly anomalous. to me the ukie looked like it might try to take it further west then the euro did. But hard to tell on the graphics + extrapolating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ...er, it only goes out to 144hr...storm just forming at the end of the run. EDIT Unless you're talking about the weak lead wave. No. Just by looking at the low location at 144hr points it toward Lake Erie. Total speculation but it looks that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro+NOGAPS+extrapolated UKIE maybe....interesting combo there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 No. Just by looking at the low location at 144hr points it toward Lake Erie. Total speculation but it looks that way Oh yeah I agree in that case, extrapolated looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 to me the ukie looked like it might try to take it further west then the euro did. But hard to tell on the graphics + extrapolating I got that impression too, but I'm trying not to focus too much on exact tracks and just categorize the model camps based on how they handle everything at H5. GFS has partial interaction between the streams, GGEM none and sheared out (although you do well at CMH). EURO/UKIE look like a full phase. Not too many wound up solutions on the GEFS. Mostly mirror the OP run or are more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I like'd how the models were handling this storm prior to 0z. Even though I'd eventually go over to a slot/drizzle, they all showed a generous front end thump of snow/ice. Now, even though there's a potential to stay all snow and possible blizzard (EURO), there's also the potential for suppression. Too much dice rolling with today's models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hopefully by the end of the weekend we have a bit of an idea on what may happen. Regardless though it's just fun to track again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hopefully by the end of the weekend we have a bit of an idea on what may happen. Regardless though it's just fun to track again. No. It'll be fun if we get 8-16" of snow. If it's a Mid Atlantic snowstorm my head is going through my computer monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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