Stebo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS might try a coastal transfer... It can try the pattern doesn't signify a coastal transfer, the GFS is just doing its usual funny stuff in trying no matter what to force a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It did. Still a dece hit south of I-80 Ya. The 0z GFS didn't do much for the WI/MI crews but would made a lot of our IL, northern IN and northern OH posters very happy. I like the waffling on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS makes me hate living in the county I do... if I lived 30 miles north, promised land on the 0z run, oh well, usually the models underdo the cold air a bit, still a very big watcher for sure, not feeling down one bit, man that low track is just perfect for places like St Louis, Springfield/Champaign, Peoria, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It can try the pattern doesn't signify a coastal transfer, the GFS is just doing its usual funny stuff in trying no matter what to force a coastal. GEM does it to....must be the 'G' in the model name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GEM does it to....must be the 'G' in the model name. GGEM runs headstrong right into a ridge, that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro tries to...but cuts Stebo some slack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 FYI.. 00z euro now showing a few inches of snow across N.IN/S.MI Christmas eve/Christmas am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 FYI.. 00z euro now showing a few inches of snow across N.IN/S.MI Christmas eve/Christmas am.. GFS showed that earlier. Looks very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS showed that earlier. Looks very interesting. Bad news is it forces the bigger one ( all has been going on about ) to track up the apps and it takes longer to really get going. A few inches across se MI and Ohio with that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bad news is it forces the bigger one ( all has been going on about ) to track up the apps and it takes longer to really get going. A few inches across se MI and Ohio with that.. That's how it works, we get the weak stuff...the good stuff happens west or east of us lol...This is somewhat of a gift, or at least something from mother nature lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That's how it works, we get the weak stuff...the good stuff happens west or east of us lol...This is somewhat of a gift, or at least something from mother nature lol... No way would i ever refuse a few inches of snow on Christmas eve/early Christmas morning. So yeah i would call it a gift.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Apps runner with the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Apps runner with the big storm. Yep BUT it takes alot longer to really get fired up. Not much QPF on the cold side till it is just east of Lake Ontario and in Canada.. A couple of inches across N.OH/se MI.. Toronto gets a better glancing blow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 00z GFS OP is a western outlier at 144 on the ensemble mean, hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 FYI.. 00z euro now showing a few inches of snow across N.IN/S.MI Christmas eve/Christmas am.. Talk about a Christmas miracle if that pans out! I honestly could not care less if the next storm missed us in SEMI if that took place, we'll eventually get the big daddy...but a white Christmas is a rare feat around here these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Talk about a Christmas miracle if that pans out! I honestly could not care less if the next storm missed us in SEMI if that took place, we'll eventually get the big daddy...but a white Christmas is a rare feat around here these days. An official White Christmas is 1"+ snowcover at 7am Christmas morning. Detroit historically is just under 50% chance. We have actually done quite well lately...as 7 of the last 12 Christmases have been White (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010)...HOWEVER, the previous 9 Christmases (1991-99) were bare!!! So technically speaking, one could say we are still trying to make up for the '90s, as from 1991 to 2011 only 7 of the 21 Christmases were officially white! (Note- in that span, Christmas 1993, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2007, & 2009 did have a T on the ground). To the bolded...I have been saying for a while now...we have technically 4 more months to get a massive snowstorm...but less than a week to get a White Christmas. bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 An official White Christmas is 1"+ snowcover at 7am Christmas morning. Detroit historically is just under 50% chance. We have actually done quite well lately...as 7 of the last 12 Christmases have been White (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010)...HOWEVER, the previous 9 Christmases (1991-99) were bare!!! So technically speaking, one could say we are still trying to make up for the '90s, as from 1991 to 2011 only 7 of the 21 Christmases were officially white! (Note- in that span, Christmas 1993, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2007, & 2009 did have a T on the ground). To the bolded...I have been saying for a while now...we have technically 4 more months to get a massive snowstorm...but less than a week to get a White Christmas. bring it! Did we have a white Christmas in 2005? I don't remember that at all, in fact I remember it pouring rain that Christmas! Maybe there was still snow on the ground... likewise in 2008. We had like 18" of snow a few days before Christmas but a ton of slush by Christmas day, because it turned to rain on Christmas Eve. 2002-2004 were glorious years though, especially 2002 and 2004 with the Christmas eve-day snowstorm in '02 and that big storm that dropped 6-12" or so over the area a couple days prior to Christmas in 2004. I think it was around zero on Christmas morning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 06Z GFS says...what storm? HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Lol this model continuity is absolutely horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Lol this model continuity is absolutely horrid. No kidding...needless to say, I think this run of the GFS is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 IND still liking the prospects of a winter storm during this time frame... GREATER INTEREST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE SECOND SURFACE WAVE SET TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S FOR MIDWEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...THEN AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE STORM DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO A LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF IMPACTS AND SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A LARGE AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF A SYSTEM TRACK ANYWHERE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WILL FOCUS PRECIP AS EITHER A RAIN/ SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I worry about the cold not connecting without a powerhouse system. The incoming ridge really warms things up this weekend. And so much of the deep rich cold is over Asia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I hope IND is right! Been a while for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james812 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It has been officially 700 days since we have seen an inch of snow here in southern indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The forerunner on Christmas Eve may be something to watch. 0z Euro had it of course, and the 6z GFS took a step towards it. Damn, just looked at the 0z GGEM for the the 26-27th storm. Dream come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 I honestly could not care less if the next storm missed us in SEMI if that took place, we'll eventually get the big daddy... Meh, although some say we've been in the best spot for frequent 6-10" storms in the last 5 years, we're also just about the only place that hasn't seen a major 12"+ storm in much of the Northeast and Midwest (including places such as Milwaukee and Minneapolis, which some will say have had it worse than us). So as long as we see a major 12"+ storm this year, I'll be perfectly satisfied with an overall lackluster winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Meh, although some say we've been in the best spot for frequent 6-10" storms in the last 5 years, we're also just about the only place that hasn't seen a major 12"+ storm in much of the Northeast and Midwest (including places such as Milwaukee and Minneapolis, which some will say have had it worse than us). So as long as we see a major 12"+ storm this year, I'll be perfectly satisfied with an overall lackluster winter. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This This winter is so reminding me of the mid 90's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I will start tracking this one on Saturday... let this current system get out of here, and see how it goes after that. This one does look like it has more potential, as it stands now, for the GL region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS 12z bring storm back, For only IND, E.OH and W.PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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