Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 you're welcome back on the couch at Debbie Downer Lane any time. 12z Euro is me holding hands with SSC on top of the CN Tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 lock it in for 14 more runs in a row Feeling this one for you. They need to test the citys snow removal operations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Of course it's silly to take anything verbatim but the exact solution actually isn't terrible. Mix/ice changing to a period of rain and then some accumulating snow. Exciting. I'm getting close as you can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro sub 990mb low through IN, 984mb in West Michigan. 'Grats Chitown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This almost looks like the map from tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Exciting. I'm getting close as you can tell. Well, if Chad is on board for wintry weather, you know something is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 yep, killer run Might be time for a Chi town trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Might be time for a Chi town trip. I'm down for some blizzard beers if it locks in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Blizzard Beers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Its rare. But it has the makings of an I-55 special. And definitely ice if the low level cold air is strong. Bit the brunt of arctic air looks to go back to Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Indy AFD: LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 235 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012 MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z GEM AS THEY ALL NOW HAVE A LEAD SURFACE WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF STATES TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WAS PUTTING OUT SMALL POPS WHICH LOOKS OK COMPARED TO MODEL THE FURTHER WEST EURO AND CANADIAN QPF. LOOKING AT THICKNESSES...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND FORECASTED TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION COULD BE A MIX. MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS TRACK THE LOW CENTER TO NORTHERN INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT. SO DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH CONSISTENT SNOWY FORECAST WEDNESDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE IN STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NOT GREAT...WILL LEAVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FROM THE REGIONAL INIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 set-up doesn't look anything like a major icing event to me I'd disagree especially further Northeast, my location specifically. With the first system going by it allows for high pressure to setup North of here which would funnel down low level cold air at the surface and you would have the warm air overriding it. I think the prospects are there for someone in the region. I am personally hoping it isn't here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'd disagree especially further Northeast, my location specifically. With the first system going by it allows for high pressure to setup North of here which would funnel down low level cold air at the surface and you would have the warm air overriding it. I think the prospects are there for someone in the region. I am personally hoping it isn't here though. I will pass on an ice storm as well. give me snow! The 12z EURO ensemble mean would be perfect for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18Z GFS further south and east with the low track...a bit colder than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z was a beautful hit. Keep these coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z was a beautful hit. Keep these coming. Yeah...deformation band pounds you. Here in South Central Indiana, it stays just a bit to warm...stuck with a cold rain...hoping for a more south and east track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z was a beautful hit. Keep these coming. don't count on it.... yesterdays' 18z was 'my' beautiful hit.... ...tomorrow's 18z? who knows. If on friday the euro is still showing a cut to the central or western lakes, I'll concede. That would be about 120 hrs out and the euro is pretty good at that range.. I'm not trusting a SLP placement at 192....even if it's the euro. One thing I'm beginning to notice is a subtle shift towards a cutoff look at 500...both on the gfs, euro, and some of the others. IF that were to start showing up in the solutions, and as long as it didn't happen too late or early, a lot of us could be in the game with a big time gulf-pump'n bowler and a pressing 1040 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 lol @ buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think he's a pro bowler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 lol @ buckeye that was a meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 that was a meltdown. I'm f*cking insulted? Meltdown? That? That wasn't a meltdown it was fair warning that the meltdown may come as early as friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm f*cking insulted? Meltdown? That? That wasn't a meltdown it was fair warning that the meltdown may come as early as friday.... Tim will be holding 2 hands during the jump off the CN tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 All depends where upstream blocking sets up the pv. Storm will phase southeast of it just like the current storm. Way to far out and models are of little use except whispering a threat(didn't even look at them today). Relax buck. relax???? C'mon Angry, I'm whistling jinglebells out of my snowwhite ass. We have our first winter weather advisory since????? and are forecast to get our biggest snowfall in like 2 years, complete with high winds and all!!! Life in snow weenie-world is the best it's been in years......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just a few things I want to point out... First off...I also don't agree with DT's suppression "guarantee," if the storm really wraps up and goes negative tilt well west of the Mississippi River, there is room for it to cut towards the western lakes. If we do see a storm cut that hard however, it looks like blocking will be fairly strong over eastern Canada, so we would likely see the storm either stall or more likely transfer to east of the Apps once it got to the latitude of the lower lakes. Second...there is strong confluence on the map above over the northeastern US which should ensure there is a polar high pressure with shallow cold air northeast of the storm...if we do see the storm cut towards Chicago or western MI, there would probably be some ice for places like CMH, CLE, LAF, DET, etc. But, it's a bit too early to discuss those specifics right now. Third...This week's storm is expected to act as a 50/50 type low early next week. If the wave ejecting early next week doesn't take off rather far west, a more classic track towards the OV before transferring to the east coast certainly remains in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just a few things I want to point out... First off...I also don't agree with DT's suppression "guarantee," if the storm really wraps up and goes negative tilt well west of the Mississippi River, there is room for it to cut towards the western lakes. If we do see a storm cut that hard however, it looks like blocking will be fairly strong over eastern Canada, so we would likely see the storm either stall or more likely transfer to east of the Apps once it got to the latitude of the lower lakes. Second...there is strong confluence on the map above over the northeastern US which should ensure there is a polar high pressure with shallow cold air northeast of the storm...if we do see the storm cut towards Chicago or western MI, there would probably be some ice for places like CMH, CLE, LAF, DET, etc. But, it's a bit too early to discuss those specifics right now. Third...This week's storm is expected to act as a 50/50 type low early next week. If the wave ejecting early next week doesn't take off rather far west, a more classic track towards the OV before transferring to the east coast certainly remains in the cards. Sounds like either scenario would be wintry for Detroit. If it cuts west, ice, if its a more classic track, snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z Euro is me holding hands with SSC on top of the CN Tower. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Sounds like either scenario would be wintry for Detroit. If it cuts west, ice, if its a more classic track, snow. That's my general thinking. Although one scenario would certainly be much more entertaining for Detroit and Cleveland than the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Powerful vort max diving through the FC at 126 on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS might try a coastal transfer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS might try a coastal transfer... It did. Still a dece hit south of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.