Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 wow that's pretty darn Bold! Not really. Id say detroit is in a good spot atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not really. Id say detroit is in a good spot atm With the NAM sure but the GFS and EURO is about 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Don't worry we got 72 hours to **** this up for you I know you'll try your hardest! Honestly, sitting here waiting for the EURO is making me a bit queasy. What a sick freak I am. Over weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS Ensemble mean brings the heavier QPF axis further West Again. And North on the next frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 With the NAM sure but the GFS and EURO is about 5" The euro is 4-8 and it was proposed that it had convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I know you'll try your hardest! Honestly, sitting here waiting for the EURO is making me a bit queasy. What a sick freak I am. Over weather. Realistically YYZ has been in the sweet spot for as long as I can remember with this storm... hasn't happened too often for you guys in the last couple years. Trust me, a large percentage of us are probably on the same boat there... myself included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Upcoming Winter Storm! GFS Ensembles Euro Ensembles GEM NAM Quite a bit of model consensus agreement in the storm track, with the outlier being the NAM currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Realistically YYZ has been in the sweet spot for as long as I can remember with this storm... hasn't happened too often for you guys in the last couple years. Trust me, a large percentage of us are probably on the same boat there... myself included If sweet spot = maximum amount of snow compared to anywhere else, I don't think we've ever been in the sweet spot. GEFS individual members coming out in about 10 minutes. The perfect distraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The models were handling the lead vort very poorly and now show it's weak at best. And they were handling the PV split and retrograde West which they are all picking up on. This is is gonna hopefully help the shortwave pop and close off further North and earlier. The backside jet is better as well. Again, driving the Surface feature more NNE for a while. That's why I was off my rocker yesterday, but it's weather, so who knows. I think Det is pretty safe for 6"+ on this one. I hope you are right. Just one storm of 4"+ last winter, and no 6"+ storms since 10.2" fell on Feb 20/21, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 CIPS updated for the 12z NAM. Granted it's the NAM... At 48 hours, using the great plains sector: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F048&flg= #1 and #2 look like doozies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 CIPS updated for the 12z NAM. Granted it's the NAM... At 48 hours, using the great plains sector: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F048&flg= #1 and #2 look like a doozies. lol at #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 lol at #1 Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 CIPS updated for the 12z NAM. Granted it's the NAM... At 48 hours, using the great plains sector: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F048&flg= #1 and #2 look like doozies. what an awesome site. Look like some of the best maps I've seen for reanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 HPC Clusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 CIPS updated for the 12z NAM. Granted it's the NAM... At 48 hours, using the great plains sector: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F048&flg= #1 and #2 look like doozies. Lots of stinkers to chose from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not going to get much better agreement than that. Looks like overall they may be partial to a somewhat further NW precipitation shield than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not going to get much better agreement than that. Looks like overall they may be partial to a somewhat further NW precipitation shield than the OP. Its nice to finally see you in a good mood wrt the weather Nobody is more overdue than you...I hope you get buried. As long as we do too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If sweet spot = maximum amount of snow compared to anywhere else, I don't think we've ever been in the sweet spot. GEFS individual members coming out in about 10 minutes. The perfect distraction. As far as this region YYZ's been pretty close to the highest (1'+) on the GFS... NAM's just getting into your range and the ECMWF was putting you at 1" of QPF for at least a couple runs. Regardless you look to be in as good of a position as anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lots of stinkers to chose from. Don't go negative on me. I'm completely sober and feeling good about our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd start hitting this one hard if I were a met especially given the heavy travel period. Locally, liking the potential for several inches with near blizzard conditions. If the storm deepens a bit more than progged then the near blizzard may become blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not going to get much better agreement than that. Looks like overall they may be partial to a somewhat further NW precipitation shield than the OP. BTW, what site is this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 BTW, what site is this from? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallmref.html Ah, just wasn't looking hard enough in that site. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ugh, this does not bode well for me. All I can hope for is 1-2 inches of snow on the backside. And to think that I had a chance with this storm. Silly me, it's too early in the season for Kentucky to get a big snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd start hitting this one hard if I were a met especially given the heavy travel period. Locally, liking the potential for several inches with near blizzard conditions. If the storm deepens a bit more than progged then the near blizzard may become blizzard. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It is of interest (to me, anyway) that half of the 12z GEFS members give northeastern Illinois measurable snow. It's probably on the order of a couple of inches for the most bullish of the members, but that's more than the area has seen so far this season. And, it certainly does not look as great as it does for areas just south and east. With the 12z NAM and several of the SREF members leaning in this direction, it's something to watch, though, I'd say -- especially for the southeast third to half of the LOT CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd start hitting this one hard if I were a met especially given the heavy travel period. Locally, liking the potential for several inches with near blizzard conditions. If the storm deepens a bit more than progged then the near blizzard may become blizzard. Lafayette looking pretty good right now. Here at home it looks like 2-3", wildcard being any lake enhancement--though I'm not too excited about the potential given a relatively shallow cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd start hitting this one hard if I were a met especially given the heavy travel period. Locally, liking the potential for several inches with near blizzard conditions. If the storm deepens a bit more than progged then the near blizzard may become blizzard. I don't know if this is a new product, or just new to me, but here is an interesting impact graphic generator from HPC - feeds off SREF. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 All in. Been a while since I've been this excited about a snowstorm for our backyards, though trying to stay a little tempered since it's still 3 days out. Regarding the winds, GFS/NAM mixing heights aren't very deep but both models have 35-40 kts even at 950 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Some yummy looking p-type maps from the SREF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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