snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah and the best model was also further Northwest 12 hours beforehand plus as you posted several of the Euro ensembles are left of the op, also the NAM is not alone in the more amplified solution, the GFS has been shifting that way with every run for a day+. No I am not saying it is going to be correct but the evidence is leaning in the direction of a more amplified solution before coastal transfer. Also one thing to note, even the Euro did this, is that most models are having this vort max start to take a negative tilt as it gets to the Mississippi River, that would tell me a Western solution is in order. The question then becomes how far West and that is a detail that is ironed out in the phasing of the Northern stream. Wouldn't surprise me if the 0z EURO was a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like a nice DEFO band right over YYZ at 84 hours on the NAM. Granted it is the NAM We'd get a good front end thump but PL and/or dryslot issues would abound if the 12z NAM verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What did I tell ya last night. Once one model jumps ship they all do. Luckily for now its just the NAM though. For now. To my defense, I was half in the bag last night. Back to level headedness now. Have to broaden the cone of uncertainty a little more it seems. But for what I want to see "down range" for eventual central IN snows, is OK and southern MO getting it first. There are exceptions to this idea, but it's usually a good indicator if we're going to see snow as well...in good amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 nam takes the 10" of snow the euro gave me at 00z and makes it about 1.3" of rain, followed by a tenth of an inch of snow. awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Wouldn't surprise me if the 0z EURO was a hiccup. Considering a good number of the ensembles disagreed with it, I would lean that way. I noticed over in the NE the mets there are discounting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 To my defense, I was half in the bag last night. Back to level headedness now. Have to broaden the cone of uncertainty a little more it seems. But for what I want to see "down range" for eventual central IN snows, is OK and southern MO getting it first. There are exceptions to this idea, but it's usually a good indicator if we're going to see snow as well...in good amounts. idk why but that saying always makes me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 9z SREFS definitely in the wound up camp. Maybe a couple show the coastal becoming dominant faster. None are suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 9z SREFS definitely in the wound up camp. Maybe a couple show the coastal becoming dominant faster. None are suppressed. I'd be skeptical of a coastal transition if the primary is wound up, normally takes longer to transfer to the coast if the primary is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS now the strongest it's been with the Christmas system, which I thought might strengthen the confluence ahead of the main storm enough to shift it east a bit. Looking at hour 66 though, I'm not sure that's going to happen, at least to any appreciable degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 thru 72 hrs ukie very similar to it's 00z run....low in central TN. Actually even a bit south of it's 00z run. plot thickens. Clearly diff between it and the nam is in the handling of the block north of the GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Checking the top two analogs from the GFS at 72 hours. 12/23/2004 (left) and 12/24/2002 (right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Actually, it did come east a bit. At 66 I thought it might drive the H5 low right into Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What an absolute plastering here on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Actually, it did come east a bit. At 66 I thought it might drive the H5 low right into Michigan. Big hit for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Big hit for YYZ. Amazingly, even though it seems each model has a disparate solution, YYZ seems to cash in on all of them. Am I dreaming? How can this **** up? I know it'll find a way but how? <<rhetorical questions Tim, no need to answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Amazingly, even though it seems each model has a disparate solution, YYZ seems to cash in on all of them. Am I dreaming? How can this **** up? I know it'll find a way but how? <<rhetorical questions Tim, no need to answer. Toronto is a LOCK for a 6"+ event. Detroit is a lock for 2"+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Toronto is a LOCK for a 6"+ event. Detroit is a lock for 2"+ event. Det is a lock for more than 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Toronto is a LOCK for a 6"+ event. Detroit is a lock for 2"+ event. The word is not in my vocabulary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So much reliance upon OP models, people should be looking more at ensemble patterns for anything beyond 2 days IMO. Nearly all guidance suggested the track that the latest OP GFS just took. NAM is clear outlier at this point. No one is a lock for anything at this point, Toronto could very well be to northwest if the current track projected by most guidance is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I like the way the models have trended in the past 24 hours. I will be happy with whatever really but a 10+ event would be a first for me since high school over 4 years ago. Cautiously optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Det is a lock for more than 2 inches. Im looking at the NAM/GFS and thinking, any more west and we will have mixing issues. But, it can only go so far west. Then I remember 2 days ago hearing no way would it come much west....Detroit might scrape some snow being on the far western fringe. And now Im just thinking that the models suck, might as well get ready for snow and hope we get a lot not a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Amazingly, even though it seems each model has a disparate solution, YYZ seems to cash in on all of them. Am I dreaming? How can this **** up? I know it'll find a way but how? <<rhetorical questions Tim, no need to answer. i still fear we'll miss miss out. I remember the December 30,1997 storm and how Toronto was forecast to get 30cm that would shut down the city...we got flurries. One of the biggest busts of my 32 year life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z GGEM ticked north. In Indiana...EVV, IND, MIE all get nailed. Updating link here, through 87 hours (time sensitive): http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 i still fear we'll miss miss out. I remember the December 30,1997 storm and how Toronto was forecast to get 30cm that would shut down the city...we got flurries. One of the biggest busts of my 32 year life. Models are a lot better nowadays. I would be absolutely astounded (and irreparably emotionally damaged) if we completely missed out on any snow, but there's still a real chance we get fringed on one side or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z GGEM ticked north. In Indiana...EVV, IND, MIE all get nailed. Updating link here, through 87 hours (time sensitive): http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Were getting there, come on EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Im looking at the NAM/GFS and thinking, any more west and we will have mixing issues. But, it can only go so far west. Then I remember 2 days ago hearing no way would it come much west....Detroit might scrape some snow being on the far western fringe. And now Im just thinking that the models suck, might as well get ready for snow and hope we get a lot not a little. The models were handling the lead vort very poorly and now show it's weak at best. And they were handling the PV split and retrograde West which they are all picking up on. This is is gonna hopefully help the shortwave pop and close off further North and earlier. The backside jet is better as well. Again, driving the Surface feature more NNE for a while. That's why I was off my rocker yesterday, but it's weather, so who knows. I think Det is pretty safe for 6"+ on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z GGEM ticked north. In Indiana...EVV, IND, MIE all get nailed. Updating link here, through 87 hours (time sensitive): http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html That run is going to dump on 69. Both old and new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ahh it's kind of nice to not be in many of your guys shoes, stressing over model runs lol. That last storm was pretty harrowing back in this area model wise. For this storm I think I'd take a blend of the GFS and Euro. The NAM should get much better by tomorrow night's 00z runs IMO. I really like the LAF/Indy area up towards YYZ for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah I could agree with that. Most of Ohio is starting to look like it will be out of the game for this one. The one time NWOH can beat out NEOH good lord!!!!! what a difference 6 hrs makes !!!! ....will the mighty euro slap down the american models or ....join them??? my gut this morning says the latter, I've seen that nam solution too many times Sorry buckeye thought this was gonna be your storm It can only go so far West, like I mentioned this is probably the ceiling, I wouldn't be shocked if it corrected back East a touch with time. The right idea is there just the details need to be ironed out. The NAM's seemed a bit "jumpy" for a lack of a better word to describe it. It started out like any long range NAM does... amped and overly NW... quickly went to a southern track yesterday and then came back the the NW side of the guidance. Now granted I still get 8" on the last couple runs of the NAM... but I don't know how much I can trust that model or any of the models right now. Amazingly, even though it seems each model has a disparate solution, YYZ seems to cash in on all of them. Am I dreaming? How can this **** up? I know it'll find a way but how? <<rhetorical questions Tim, no need to answer. Don't worry we got 72 hours to **** this up for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The models were handling the lead vort very poorly and now show it's weak at best. And they were handling the PV split and retrograde West which they are all picking up on. This is is gonna hopefully help the shortwave pop and close off further North and earlier. The backside jet is better as well. Again, driving the Surface feature more NNE for a while. That's why I was off my rocker yesterday, but it's weather, so who knows. I think Det is pretty safe for 6"+ on this one. wow that's pretty darn Bold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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