snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 EURO ensemble mean at 96 Pretty similar to the OP EURO but notice the kink in the isobars over WV/SE OH. Seems like a number of the members would support a longer lived primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That's a pretty bold call. Doubt that will be the case unless the Euro climbs on board today. Yeah, I was a little surprised by that call from Stebo. I mean the best model (EURO) is showing a good hit as far south as CMH. Maybe Stebo thinks a NAM like solution is the most meteorologically sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 6z GFS @84 hrs 998 southern oh before a jump east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I counted 5 GEFS members at 6z that would likely bring mixing issued as far north as YYZ. Lotta details to be ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 EURO ensemble mean at 96 Pretty similar to the OP EURO but notice the kink in the isobars over WV/SE OH. Seems like a number of the members would support a longer lived primary. Which also means a farther west track than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Which also means a farther west track than the OP Yes. Didn't mention it because I thought it was implied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 One thing is for sure, the Nam is only out to 12HR's but that lead vort is even weaker than it was progged at 00z. You can see the residual effect's in the height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That's the lead storm though No I am talking about the Southern(second) low track, most of the ensembles are Northwest with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah, I was a little surprised by that call from Stebo. I mean the best model (EURO) is showing a good hit as far south as CMH. Maybe Stebo thinks a NAM like solution is the most meteorologically sound? Yeah and the best model was also further Northwest 12 hours beforehand plus as you posted several of the Euro ensembles are left of the op, also the NAM is not alone in the more amplified solution, the GFS has been shifting that way with every run for a day+. No I am not saying it is going to be correct but the evidence is leaning in the direction of a more amplified solution before coastal transfer. Also one thing to note, even the Euro did this, is that most models are having this vort max start to take a negative tilt as it gets to the Mississippi River, that would tell me a Western solution is in order. The question then becomes how far West and that is a detail that is ironed out in the phasing of the Northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 FWIW 06 NAM made me jump out of bed (damn Iphone). It's official my wife thinks I'm crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And the 12z NAM through 60 is farther NW so far. I'm so close to getting buried down here. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM drills STL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Seesh, went from wanting just a tick NW trend, to just a tiny amount SE... I'm happy right now, feeling rather sick for my friends in the Evansville area should this pan out, the 1" streak would probably continue under the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hard to take a solution seriously that drops 24-30 inches in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 good lord!!!!! what a difference 6 hrs makes !!!! ....will the mighty euro slap down the american models or ....join them??? my gut this morning says the latter, I've seen that nam solution too many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Oh silly nam, why must you toy with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Had to do it just because... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Oh well, at least I won't have to shovel the driveway I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM is probably ceiling for this event right now. By the end of the run it full phases with the Northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Had to do it just because... Ill take half of what that map depicts and run! Stebo, how likely do you feel the nam solution can verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ill take half of what that map depicts and run! Stebo, how likely do you feel the nam solution can verify? Verbatim 5%, something similar but probably 3/4s the total 20%, and 1/2 the total 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like a nice DEFO band right over YYZ at 84 hours on the NAM. Granted it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM is probably ceiling for this event right now. By the end of the run it full phases with the Northern stream energy. With all the overwhelming talk in recent days about it being so far east....you dont think its possible all the snow will go W of us, do you? How far NW can this thing go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Verbatim 5%, something similar but probably 3/4s the total 20%, and 1/2 the total 40%. Lol too early for math but thanks for the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Worrying about it being too far east 8 hours ago...silly me. Weather is quite the ride sometimes. Anyway, 0.86" on the NAM for LAF...but we'd be fighting the dry slot for a time. Needless to say, still a good range of people still in the game...from MO to OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Verbatim 5%, something similar but probably 3/4s the total 20%, and 1/2 the total 40%. I would go with 1%. GFS/GFS Ensembles, EURO/EURO Ensembles/ & GEM VS Nam beyond 70 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 the RGEM is better again. at 48HR, closed H5 vort in Eastern New Mexico/Far Western Texas Panhandle. Weaker lead vort, hell, it's 1014mb up from 1008mb before. more amplification out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Worrying about it being too far east 8 hours ago...silly me. Weather is quite the ride sometimes. Anyway, 0.86" on the NAM for LAF...but we'd be fighting the dry slot for a time. Needless to say, still a good range of people still in the game...from MO to OH. What did I tell ya last night. Once one model jumps ship they all do. Luckily for now its just the NAM though. For now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I would go with 1%. GFS/GFS Ensembles, EURO/EURO Ensembles/ & GEM VS Nam beyond 70 hours. NAM is Fantasy land no doubt... At this point with the last storm the NAM was destroying SEMN with crazy amounts of snow and showed Rain for Madison. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012121700&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 With all the overwhelming talk in recent days about it being so far east....you dont think its possible all the snow will go W of us, do you? How far NW can this thing go? It can only go so far West, like I mentioned this is probably the ceiling, I wouldn't be shocked if it corrected back East a touch with time. The right idea is there just the details need to be ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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