The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS OP, SE of 12z GFS Ensemble mean a bit more NW with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Several of the GFS ensembles, probably the most so far are further NW and some by a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Several of the GFS ensembles, probably the most so far are further NW and some by a lot Go figure...ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 6z NAM really coming northwest, closed H5 low over PAH, impressive defo band across southern MO to near central IL by 72hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 From LMK... ...Winter storm still a possibility here Tuesday night/Wednesday... More on that after we talk the start of the period however. The low pressure system affecting Monday`s weather will be northeast of the region by this period, with a trailing weak frontal boundary across eastern Kentucky. Shortwave ridging will be building in this period, so any light rain chances should be to our east. The front will stall over the Appalachians Tuesday as the next low pressure system develops along it across south Texas. The center of the low pressure now looks to cross just east of the Lake Cumberland area Wednesday morning, which will put our region more into the warm sector early on and also put the deformation forcing/snowbands over central Indiana. The trend in the models has been more toward the northern track solution, with even the Canadian GEM and the Navy NOGAPS jumping on board. Now most of the models cluster over southeast Kentucky Wednesday at 12Z, and the latest GEFS anomalies indicates the center of the low will be 3-4 standard deviations below normal for this time of year. Thus it is likely that someone will get lots of snow. The GFS and NAM QPF fields do a better job of indicating a dry slot coming closer to the surface low and both indicate the deformation band snow better than the ECMWF and GEM. Will lean toward them in this forecast package. Despite the above average model agreement, even a slight shift in the forecast track to the south could bring the heavier snow into the Louisville metro region. As it stands now though, we are looking at mostly rain early Wednesday over roughly the southeast half of the forecast area, with snow for the northwest. The latter portion looks to get the heaviest snow roughly from Midnight to late morning. During that period they could see 4-6" of snow. The rest of the region will see quite a bit of QPF, with averages around an inch, but mostly falling as rain. Any snow the southeast half gets during the day should be much lighter with accumulations less than an inch. It should be noted that this forecast package has the heaviest snow band only a county away from the Louisville metro, so again stay tuned for updates as this forecast becomes fine tuned further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 DTX upped the POPs on my grid forecast to "Snow Likely" for the 26th-27th. Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Blustery. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 6z NAM realy coming northwest, closed H5 low over PAH, impressive defo band across southern MO to near central IL by 72hr. You're not kidding. A good chunk of Indiana has mixing/dryslot problems on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like it had the same strength as the 0z run so why did it come north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 6z NAM realy coming northwest, closed H5 low over PAH, impressive defo band across southern MO to near central IL by 72hr. Ouch. Screws most of Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. It is the NAM though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Now this is an image I can call it a night with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You're not kidding. A good chunk of Indiana has mixing/dryslot problems on this run. good snows make it to ORD at the end of the run with the defo band stretching back down to STL still. OK/AR get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like it had the same strength as the 0z run so why did it come north? Stronger mid-level vort and more phasing with the Northern stream system. If anything the surface low strength does not match up with the rest of the levels. I'd probably knock 6mb off of what it shows verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 good snows make it to ORD at the end of the run with the defo band stretching back down to STL still. OK/AR get dumped on. Would be crippling for Tulsa and Fayetteville over to Branson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Would be crippling for Tulsa and Fayetteville over to Branson. Except it's the NAM. *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gotta wonder if this was a glitch run of the NAM being the NAM or if we see a trend to more phasing with the nrn stream pulling it north. And agree that the sfc is too weak given how it looks aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if the nam ended up panning out. Systems that tap gulf moisture tend to be more of a rain event for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gotta wonder if this was a glitch run of the NAM being the NAM or if we see a trend to more phasing with the nrn stream pulling it north. And agree that the sfc is too weak given how it looks aloft. It does have a bit of agreement from the SREF although again far out in the range. The GFS 00z is kind of close too with the interaction with the Northern stream, so it isn't alone on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gotta wonder if this was a glitch run of the NAM being the NAM or if we see a trend to more phasing with the nrn stream pulling it north. And agree that the sfc is too weak given how it looks aloft. Considering the NAM was way west at one time with the last storm, i chalk itt up as a glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Some of the SREF members have been showing a more phased/NW solution for a bit now. The ARW members are probably overboard, but there are quite a few more NW members from the NMM and NMMB that are amped rather than suppressed/out to sea. Same also could be said to a lesser extent for the 00Z GFS ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 IND discussion MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EVEN THE GEM WHICH HAD BEEN DRY ON PREVIOUS RUNS NOW GENERATES SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. THE EURO...GFS AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTER STORM OVER MOST OF OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. ALSO MODELS INDICATE MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT BY WEDNESDAY THIS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET...BUT INSTEAD WILL COVER THIS EVEN WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND PLAY UP MENTION OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THERE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH WINDS TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 As usual ILN did not update the long term section in the morning AFD update. Might be the biggest gripe i have with them especially when there is possibly a big storm coming this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Models are like the Mafia. Try to leave and they pull you back in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I am close to waving the white flag........ For where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 in western ohio sans the extreme NW part. A partial phase puts it on the edge, a full phase means goodbye. Yeah I could agree with that. Most of Ohio is starting to look like it will be out of the game for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 06z RGEM shows another jump towards the NAM/GFS. First vort faster, weaker, while PV to the North is retrograding West. The main player in the Rockies is stronger, much more amplified with a much sharper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Right on the edge here, if it goes any farther north, goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah I could agree with that. Most of Ohio is starting to look like it will be out of the game for this one. After a quick google search, you look pretty golden on the obscure Dgex run tonight. Drop's about 1" of QPF or so, all snow where you are. 06Z DGEX at 84 hours: If there is anything new, it's the first wave all of a sudden sucking face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 A few HPC graphics, interesting to note with the low plots that a large number of the ensembles are NW of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 A few HPC graphics, interesting to note with the low plots that a large number of the ensembles are NW of the low track. That's the lead storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah I could agree with that. Most of Ohio is starting to look like it will be out of the game for this one. That's a pretty bold call. Doubt that will be the case unless the Euro climbs on board today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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