OHweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 When taking a quick look at the 0z GEFS and 12z ECM Ensembles…the two ensemble means are very similar in several regards, which I guess is good in the day 2-3 timeframe. Both ensembles are very close in placement and strength of our shortwave ejecting into the Plains 12z Tuesday…and both suites are in good agreement in the placement/strength of the block over Canada and upper low pegged south of the block north of the Great Lakes…with the GFS ensembles a bit stronger with the upper low pegged south of the block. The ECM suite is just a tad stronger with the Christmas Eve shortwave as it pulls out, however, the differences caused by that appear to be cosmetic. Very similar placement of the next incoming shortwave as well into the northwestern US. So, from a synoptic stand point, the two suites are very close as our wave ejects from the west. A few things that stand out: -Both suites show confluence from the eastern Lakes towards New England, and have an upper low centered north of the western Lakes/eastern Plains. These features argue for the storm having trouble making it north of the Ohio River. -The depth of the trough argues for an early phase west of the Apps. Note how the polar jet and subtropical jet begin interacting as the system is still developing over the Deep South on the 0z Euro above. This argues for a stronger/moister solution. The GFS also shows this early interaction between the two streams. However, thanks to the upper low pegged to the north of the Great Lakes/Rex block, the trough doesn’t take on a negative tilt until it gets east of the Mississippi, which suggests a more abrupt turn to the north-northeast won’t occur until the low is well east of the river: So right now, I’m thinking we see a strong and moisture laden system begin heading ENE out of Texas Tuesday before turning more NE Tuesday night as it moves east of the Mississippi River into Tennessee, before tracking towards either far SE OH or WV. From here, unless the system is a full phase and is vertically stacked, it will probably transfer to the east coast. If the system is fully phased and stacked it may stay in one piece as the 500mb trough continues moving NE towards NY/New England. A potential caveat here is that if the system does fully phase as opposed to a more partial phase, it may hook more NNE it track towards central Ohio. This is a scenario that is still on the table although the general consensus appears to be for more of a partial phase. This is looking like a eastern MO/northwestern KY/ southern IL/ southern IN/OH special with far southern Ohio likely getting screwed. The CMH crew should do ok, but they need to watch for a full phase and a more pronounced NNE hook and WTOD. Northern IN and SE MI look to be on the northern fringe along with much of southwestern Ontario, although again these areas may still be in the game if a more complete phase can occur. The shortwave should be fully sampled for the 0z Monday runs and I think we can hopefully expect to start nailing things down a bit more starting with those model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No it does not. Look closely at the temp profiles, it's above freezing for .9" of that liquid It's right at 32 with below zero 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I saw that earlier...which is a headscratcher considering the low only gets to charleston WV, I don't care what the text says, that's a classic snowstorm track for cmh. Text says your fine. It can snow at 32-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No it does not. Look closely at the temp profiles, it's above freezing for .9" of that liquid It can snow and be 32.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So let me get this straight...places like Bloomington, Seymour, and Louisville still get missed by the EURO snow wise? No look at the temperature profiles Don't pay attention to the useless trolls. It's either they're useless or don't have a clue how to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 f zone again between me and you. This thing really had potential I thought, too. Hey, you have a legit shot at lake effect snow perhaps, better than me and to the northwest. Might be very light, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't know the temp profiles as of yet, haven't look at soundings for the FIM yet. But this system does look interesting to say the least, but it is kind of strange for the possibility of 2 major storms within 2 days or so each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No it does not. Look closely at the temp profiles, it's above freezing for .9" of that liquid Yep...needed it to phase...no phase, no cold air because there is none already in place. Very simple solution from that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I would agree with this completely, as hm8 quoted me earlier I think there are some convective feedback issues going on with respect to the low track. Not too surprising considering the prospects of severe weather down South that the model would have some convective issues. I haven't seen this mentioned much yet but I would think with the wave being so close to the Gulf that we could be primed for a situation where latent heat release plays a big role, thus potentially leading to a somewhat stronger/farther northwest track? I realize that probably comes off as wishcasting but what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No it does not. Look closely at the temp profiles, it's above freezing for .9" of that liquid Looking at the Wundermap snowfall loop it does appear to be mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No it does not. Look closely at the temp profiles, it's above freezing for .9" of that liquid I am looking at 2mT ( have close up region views ) and the 32 line never gets north of I70 from Wheeling WV on west.. 850s as well stay below 0.. 32 line briefly sneaks up to Wheeling but that is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It can snow and be 32.5F oh, I thought he was referring to profile temps above surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I haven't seen this mentioned much yet but I would think with the wave being so close to the Gulf that we could be primed for a situation where latent heat release plays a big role, thus potentially leading to a somewhat stronger/farther northwest track? I realize that probably comes off as wishcasting but what do you think? Nah it isn't wishcasting, that is a possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yes.. The rains are a very good thing and thus much needed. I hate droughts more then anything. But yeah this is why i always tell people up this way to watch what they wish for when it concerns blocking. Blocking is never a good thing for snow lovers especially here where i am unless you get a 1,000yr event like Jan 78. lol What a flip... 0.35" of precip in November and this month almost 4" the first 20 days. Can't ask for more than that it just didn't quite work out unless you were 20 miles west. And yeah I can't stand drought or too much blocking.. drives me nuts because that's all that's mentioned forum wide leading up to winter. -nao/-ao/etc/etc. Give me 4" of rain every December before a cold and weenie blocked snow pattern. sorry about OT. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd agree....tomorrow night's 00z will have this firmly in the euro 72 hr window, if it hold at that point, it's probably over....until then still likely it shifts in track or strength or both. There is so much up for grabs still with this. There are to many big players with this one that keep pulling on each other. attm it's pretty clear the SLP track will start in Louisiana and could end up in Southern Indiana/South Eastern to West Virginia, maybe even Viriginia to a coastal. And we are 75 hours from the storm leaving Louisiana. Of Course when a storm comes that can cure the ill's of the "Southerners" it's this kind of wishy washy crap three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 oh, I thought he was referring to profile temps above surface. Don't listen to the trolls. Euro has 6-10 for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So let me get this straight...places like Bloomington, Seymour, and Louisville still get missed by the EURO snow wise? Bloomington stays all snow - actually a lot of it. Louisville is rain changing to a messy mix to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I haven't seen this mentioned much yet but I would think with the wave being so close to the Gulf that we could be primed for a situation where latent heat release plays a big role, thus potentially leading to a somewhat stronger/farther northwest track? I realize that probably comes off as wishcasting but what do you think? Possibly...it could make the turn to the NE for that reason enough to catch the northern piece of energy and, if it did that, it would probably deepen very quickly and eject NNE from that point. That would likely lead to jackpot totals along the deformation zone. I'd just say it's pretty unlikely it all works out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 oh, I thought he was referring to profile temps above surface. My text data has you below freezing at 850mb in each 6hr time increment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It can snow and be 32.5F Yes but that's only when the air isn't very moist. Since snow cools more by evaporation than heats from its surroundings it won't melt till the temperature is 34F. Then you start getting into sleet and rain. Thing is though this is going to be a moist system coming out of the gulf, therefore if this solution verified you wouldn't get a whole lot of snow above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 There is so much up for grabs still with this. There are to many big players with this one that keep pulling on each other. attm it's pretty clear the SLP track will start in Louisiana and could end up in Southern Indiana/South Eastern to West Virginia, maybe even Viriginia to a coastal. And we are 75 hours from the storm leaving Louisiana. Of Course when a storm comes that can cure the ill's of the "Southerners" it's this kind of wishy washy crap three days out. but isn't it also true we say a lot of these same things with every storm....too many players on the field, energy still needs to come ashore, convective feedback issues, etc etc.... i guess that's what makes this addictive... and in the end there are rarely any HUGE surprises, it usually turns out, give or take 50 miles and a few inches, pretty close to what was modeled. (3 or 4 days out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nah it isn't wishcasting, that is a possible outcome. Read my mind Hoosier, and its not wishcasting. I've come to expect the NW trend. Atleast this time it doesnt look like it can hurt us. I like Kokomo's call earlier. Im sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I haven't seen this mentioned much yet but I would think with the wave being so close to the Gulf that we could be primed for a situation where latent heat release plays a big role, thus potentially leading to a somewhat stronger/farther northwest track? I realize that probably comes off as wishcasting but what do you think? A stronger low is definitely in play - I was actually surprised the 00z EURO wasn't a tad stronger. Tomorrow night's run should be key. I'm still favoring the heaviest snow running from Southwest Indiana through South Central Indiana and into Eastern Indiana/Western and Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Euro text data looks pretty good for CMH but something to remember is that you're only seeing 2m and 850 mb temps and warm layers can exist at other levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 EURO precip type maps keep CMH all snow FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Read my mind Hoosier, and its now wishcasting. I've come to expect the NW trend. Atleast this time it doesnt look like it can hurt us. I like Kokomo's call earlier. Im sticking with it. but in this case it would have to be a nw RE-trend those are much more rare. Actually If it does trend NW it will be because of a stronger surface low which will fck me pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Bloomington stays all snow - actually a lot of it. Louisville is rain changing to a messy mix to all snow. Well I am from Seymour...about an hour north of Louisville. (Bloomington is to my northwest) hoping we stay all snow on that run too. We snow lovers here in Southern Indiana are so very desperate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The track currently depicted by models would be wonderful for a long-fetched LES event off of Lake Michigan. Unfortunately, the airmass doesn't look too cold at 850mb--dT's are less than impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 before tonight's run the Euro was bringing 4-7" of snow to the MPX cwa, I simply didn't believe it based on it's teleconnections. Edit: for the 28-29th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= CIPS is still dead on STL but yet 2004 is way up there and the one big miss out of the analogs for this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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