Geos Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That Dec. 16th, 2007 event must have shared the wealth pretty good. Ended up with 6.5" here myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Don't see anything drastically different with the EURO through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro weaker and a maybe a smidgen SE through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Closed H5 circulation over ARLATEX by 72 with a 996 sfc low on the AR/MS border. I can't directly compare with the 12z run due to the mismatch intervals, but it doesn't look like any fundamental changes are in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Track is almost the same but it is weaker.. Thus the coastal/near coastal gets going a bit quicker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Buckeye is still holding on for dear life according to the ECMWF... 1" or so QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Damn, looks like beyond 72 things are ending up more ugly than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 phewwwww wtod cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 How does the EURO look for Southern/South Central indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Buckeye is still holding on for dear life according to the ECMWF... 1" or so QPF Dayton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think those from here on to the nw need to forget about this one. Atleast anything decent from it. I suspect most have but just in case.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 at 72 hrs it looked a lot like the ukie at 500.... much moreso than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Buckeye is still holding on for dear life according to the ECMWF... 1" or so QPF I'm guessing flirting with the fringe here at YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Dayton? .85" all snow Apparently the WTOD does something... TDZ's temps are above freezing... CLE almost gets sketchy too. YYZ at .77" or so... my adding isn't so great right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 .85" all snow Apparently the WTOD does something... TDZ's temps are above freezing... CLE almost gets sketchy too. YYZ at .77" or so... my adding isn't so great right now. WTF? .77" with a sfc low tracking basically along the EC. I guess I should be happy but I'm a little apprehensive about buying into such a snowy scenario with that track. Can't think of too many analogues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think those from here on to the nw need to forget about this one. Atleast anything decent from it. I suspect most have but just in case.. f zone again between me and you. This thing really had potential I thought, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm guessing flirting with the fringe here at YYZ? You are on the .75 line.. Congrats to Buckeye and the OH/OH River crew. And good luck to you SSC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think those from here on to the nw need to forget about this one. Atleast anything decent from it. I suspect most have but just in case.. fairly unsual to see the euro shift nw from a consistent track....then back...and then nw again once in a 96 hr window. I'm bias, but I suspect the mean track from the past two or three days on euro will probably verify. A track either all the way up the apps or to the upper TN valley and transfer. That's not a 12" snowstorm for cmh, and it won't be a blockbuster wound up low, but iit could be a nice 6 incher....and I'll take that and run anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 WTF? .77" with a sfc low tracking basically along the EC. I guess I should be happy but I'm a little apprehensive about buying into such a snowy scenario with that track. Can't think of too many analogues. This whole run seems weird... DTW gets more than parts of NWOH even with that track... I dont have images yet so it's hard to say exactly what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 phewwwww wtod cancel Here in Cincy it is literally too close to call from the text data. I'm guessing a heck of a thumping of sleet before some snow...but a step in the right direction I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Quoting Stebo here, but there's some possible convective feedback issues going on in the SE on this run that might account for why we see slightly weaker/SE solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 .85" all snow Apparently the WTOD does something... TDZ's temps are above freezing... CLE almost gets sketchy too. YYZ at .77" or so... my adding isn't so great right now. Awesome thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You are on the .75 line.. Congrats to Buckeye and the OH/OH River crew. And good luck to you SSC. Primary must remain stronger than it seems on the low-res free maps I'm looking at. Per Will in the SNE thread, coastal is from DE to SE of LI which is usually a kiss of death here. And thanks for the well wishes Harry. Might have to fight for this one right to the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Here in Cincy it is literally too close to call from the text data. I'm guessing a heck of a thumping of sleet before some snow...but a step in the right direction I suppose. so i'm showing a 996 (or 986 can't tell) low over central VA at 96 hrs.... exactly how far north does the primary get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 fairly unsual to see the euro shift nw from a consistent track....then back...and then nw again once in a 96 hr window. I'm bias, but I suspect the mean track from the past two or three days on euro will probably verify. A track either all the way up the apps or to the upper TN valley and transfer. That's not a 12" snowstorm for cmh, and it won't be a blockbuster wound up low, but iit could be a nice 6 incher....and I'll take that and run anyday. I'd be pretty happy with that too and with this storm being in the daytime, it will be nice to watch. I put out an early guess of 4-7 inches locally and that still sounds like a good early call. Some 8-10" lollipops are possible and hopefully I can cash in on one of those. The accompanying winds will also make this a good storm too. No blizzard but respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd love to see an 84hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 f zone again between me and you. This thing really had potential I thought, too. Ofcourse this would be the time the blocking works out. Oh well. I have had concern about the blocking but the hope was the models are too fast/strong with it again. They could still be but yeah hope is fading fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd love to see an 84hr map http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Wunderground always helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 so i'm showing a 996 (or 986 can't tell) low over central VA at 96 hrs.... exactly how far north does the primary get? Looked like WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Time to starting hoping that we can squeeze out an inch or two here. GFS the clear outlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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