kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Damn, need a spoiler alert. I'm still waiting for the damn black and whites to update at the ec website. Anyways, good trend it seems, even if it's not all the way there. This site starts updating hour by hour between 11:15 and 11:30. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This setup looks like Dec 16 2007 lol I was living in Ottawa for that one, and it dropped 35cm on the capital. Can you imagine if Ottawa got another 35cm on top of the 44cm they just had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like a similar track to the GFS but is colder and nails west and north OH. Not sure why the GFS stays a little to warm for snow here when its sitting on the OH/WV border at hour 90. a track to central or eastern KY should...in theory...nail 80% of ohio with mostly frozen. I thought the gfs looked warm too, even though it was closer to the ohio river. WTOD is usually an issue when the low crosses north of the ohio river.... but then again it's all noise at this point, until the mighty euro speaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Even the NOGAPS gets a primary near WV... UKMET is all alone now not getting the low past VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This setup looks like Dec 16 2007 sfc track looks similar. Upper level setup was a bit different. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us1216.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Light Snow Likely Christmas Eve Over Parts of Southeast Lower Michigan and Risk Continues for Heavier Snow Day After Christmas /26th/ http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/12/light-snow-likely-christmas-eve-over.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 True but its still better than anything we've gotten since -_- Have you seen the latest 0z GGEM yet? Not bad, similar to the 0z GFS, but its an improvement from the 12z Just saw it via kab's link. We're fringed a bit due to its quicker coastal transfer, but still a decent shot of snow. And it's a massive improvement over the last several GGEM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Memphis to Cincinnati to Cleveland got a pretty good dumping on the GEM. The steady snow stopped right at a Indianapolis-Detroit-Toronto line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This setup looks like Dec 16 2007 Might as well include the map ORH-wxman posted if you're going to ninja pick him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Memphis to Cincinnati to Cleveland got a pretty good dumping on the GEM. The steady snow stopped right at a Indianapolis-Detroit-Toronto line. GEM had a coastal earlier in the day. That model is playing catch-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gonna be my first late nite EURO run of the season. Always a special right of passage for a young winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gonna be my first late nite EURO run of the season. Always a special right of passage for a young winter season. congrats! I confess this damn storm has been the first for me since winter 2010.... although it'll be my third night on this particular storm. assuming i don't dose off. god we're idiots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z GEFS tracks from northern MS to eastern KY to MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GEM took a big step toward the GFS/Euro both in strength and track. The key that others alluded to is if this gets sub 990mb up into KY/OH it will be slow to transition to the coast which will help those to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 sfc track looks similar. Upper level setup was a bit different. http://www.meteo.psu...2007/us1216.php Yeah but it looked like there was a pretty potent upper level 500mb low like how this system is going to have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 congrats! I confess this damn storm has been the first for me since winter 2010.... although it'll be my third night on this particular storm. assuming i don't dose off. god we're idiots Yup. I've been on my feet working for almost 10 hours and ever fiber in my body wants to sleep. But instead, I'm going to stay up to see if it's going to snow in 4 days. Textbook definition of idiocy. And thinking back on it, I'm in the same boat. Don't think I stayed up once last winter for the EURO. Simply and absolutely nothing to track that entire winter. 2011-12 was the king of crud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The one good thing for those further nw needing a nw trend is the models tending to over do the blocking the past month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Feeling pretty good about the prospects of accumulating snow here. Not even gonna guess a range at this point but has some potential to be the biggest pure snow event in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hopefully the Christmas system does the deed with the block and keeps hauling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Feeling pretty good about the prospects of accumulating snow here. Not even gonna guess a range at this point but has some potential to be the biggest pure snow event in a while. agreed, feels nice to have a system without having to worry about sleet or freezing rain ruling it's ugly head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 The one good thing for those further nw needing a nw trend is the models tending to over do the blocking the past month or so. We need... 1. That initial wave to be just strong/fast enough to shove some of that confluence in Canada northeast, yet not too strong/fast to where it shoves the baroclinic zone too far south. 2. That system entering the west coast on its tail to slow down a bit.so we can get a little more ridging on the west coast and thus a little more digging of the trough early on. Either way, I'm moderately confident this will be a buckeye-SSC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We need... 1. That initial wave to be just strong/fast enough to shove some of that confluence in Canada northeast, yet not too strong/fast to where it shoves the baroclinic zone too far south. 2. That system entering the west coast on its tail to slow down a bit.so we can get a little more ridging on the west coast and thus a little more digging of the trough early on. Either way, I'm moderately confident this will be a buckeye-SSC special. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 For what it is worth... 993 mb low on the eastern side of Ohio at 7:00 PM Wednesday Evening... Without looking at temperature profiles or the extent of the moisture, I would say that's about as good of a track as you could hope for for big snows in SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Without looking at temperature profiles or the extent of the moisture, I would say that's about as good of a track as you could hope for for big snows in SEMI. That's an old map ( 18z).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We need... 1. That initial wave to be just strong/fast enough to shove some of that confluence in Canada northeast, yet not too strong/fast to where it shoves the baroclinic zone too far south. 2. That system entering the west coast on its tail to slow down a bit.so we can get a little more ridging on the west coast and thus a little more digging of the trough early on. Either way, I'm moderately confident this will be a buckeye-SSC special. Better confidence then me at this point. As mentioned only thing i do know is models tending to over do blocks the past month or so.. How much of a role that plays this go around is anyones guess. Depends a bit on the front runner aka Christmas event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hopefully the Christmas system does the deed with the block and keeps hauling off. Do you think we will manage to get some snow from it way up here in the snow hole? That would bite if we didn't, considering what we just went through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Do you think we will manage to get some snow from it way up here in the snow hole? That would bite if we didn't, considering what we just went through... I'd say 1-3 or so at the most at this point. Maybe more with LES as the winds wrap up around the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Better confidence then me at this point. As mentioned only thing i do know is models tending to over do blocks the past month or so.. How much of a role that plays this go around is anyones guess. Depends a bit on the front runner aka Christmas event. On the other hand, short of a full-blown phase west of the Appalachians (I.E. December 2004, January 1978, etc.), it's not common for these gulf lows to get north of the Ohio River and track west of the Appalachians without transferring to the east coast/east of the mountains. That's something to keep in mind too. I'm not saying that will happen with this particular storm, but it's more likely than not. I'll gladly eat my crow though (fried) if this thing does track from Nashville to Cleveland or Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 On the other hand, short of a full-blown phase west of the Appalachians (I.E. December 2004, January 1978, etc.), it's not common for these gulf lows to get north of the Ohio River and track west of the Appalachians without transferring to the east coast/east of the mountains. That's something to keep in mind too. I'm not saying that will happen with this particular storm, but it's more likely than not. I'll gladly eat my crow though (fried) if this thing does track from Nashville to Cleveland or Toledo. Possible i suppose but i doubt it gets as far nw as Toledo. At this point i wont write anything off though. lol.. Been burned too many times this far out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd say 1-3 or so at the most at this point. Maybe more with LES as the winds wrap up around the low? Thanks...yeah, with NW winds there'd be some LES. I simply can't believe how little snow we've had. Even people who hate snow around here are looking forward to snow...as the weather has been soooooo boring and mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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