The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The NAM is a little flatter than the GFS........at this point. The GFS has a much stronger backside Upper level Jet. 18Z GFS: 00Z NAM: In my extremely uneducated opinion. The NAM might be off on a few things. First the red arrow is closer to what I think the Jet will be like. The NAM has the Canadian vortex elongated and crappy, no retrograde. Hopefully it's more like the GFS helping amplify the ridge out West. But we need more Jet Support back there. The Blue shows the vort max, which is very strong and probably to flat. Even with the Nam's weaker dynamic's it closes off at H5, then un-close, then back closed. The purple is the first vort which the NAM has weaker than it did earlier, but the NAM fail's us in other ways. I think the models are to flat and to fast with our vort max. And there will be adjustments to a slower more amplified solution with H5 closing off over Central or East Central OK then moving into Southern Illinois with the trough negatively tilting. H7 will be closed off multiple bars and this will allow more moisture to be pulled back. For those clearly rooting against this. If my area get's no snow I hope the Apps Runner to WV materializes and you guys cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run of the GFS was a tad southeast from 12Z/18Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z GFS looked weaker and furtheast southeast to start but still another good it for PAH-IND-LAF-DET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Doesnt transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Doesnt transfer? doesn't appear to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If it's not one thing, it's another. Geezus...the frustration level with this is stupid. But like I said earlier, Detroit is good either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If it's not one thing, it's another. Geezus...the frustration level with this is stupid. But like I said earlier, Detroit is good either way. Snow lovers here in Southern Indiana...Northern/Central/Eastern Kentucky are getting pretty frustrated with these model runs...the models were in our favor for a few days...now...not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Western Michigan, amazingly, is still waiting for a snowstorm too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This run of the GFS was a tad southeast from 12Z/18Z... Just a hair to the SE from before. I'm still right on the freeking rain/ snow line. What a world..what a world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Latest GFS looks really good for the GTA, hopefully models come into agreement with a path like the GFS. Would likely be some lake enhancement off of Lake Ontario as well into the Hamilton/Burlington/Niagara areas. Might get a touch of that, although the setup is not ideal (not tremendously cold aloft). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Per the 0z GFS, snow starts here at 90 hrs. It's actually within D4! That means there's actually more than a remote chance it happens. Woo hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Just a hair to the SE from before. I'm still right on the freeking rain/ snow line. What a world..what a world! Where are you located. I am from Seymour, IN. Wouldn't take much of a shift to put Southern IN in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Snow lovers here in Southern Indiana...Northern/Central/Eastern Kentucky are getting pretty frustrated with these model runs...the models were in our favor for a few days...now...not so much. We're still VERY near the heavy snow line so don't despair! We should get at least 4"; more if it just shifts a little to east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Might get a touch of that, although the setup is not ideal (not tremendously cold aloft). Indeed, would help with the totals a bit though. Would be nice just to see a decent storm for the first time in what...well over a year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Where are you located. I am from Seymour, IN. Wouldn't take much of a shift to put Southern IN in the sweet spot. I'm in Jennings Co. ( North Vernon)..very near to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 ok i admit, I'm a little buzzed coming off my first in a series of dysfunctional family holiday dinners...BUT here's my thoughts. the 00z gfs wasn't a total disaster, in fact verbatim it's a sloppy backloaded winterstorm for cmh. But who cares, afterall it's still 90 hrs out. More importantly I think the 12z runs were the furthest nw runs we'll see from here out. ok now this might be the rum talking but I'm gonna say it: I think this comes full circle and morphs back into an app runner DaMMIT... :weenie: the block is looking better in addition there is energy already entering the southern rockies on this things tail at 90+ hours. now let dr. no take me down in flames plenty of alcohol to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Indeed, would help with the totals a bit though. Would be nice just to see a decent storm for the first time in what...well over a year? Verbatim, you'd do very well even without LES. You did ok for GHD 2011. Discounting LES, I haven't seen a "decent" storm here since December 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 ok i admit, I'm a little buzzed coming off my first in a series of dysfunctional family holiday dinners...BUT here's my thoughts. the 00z gfs wasn't a total disaster, in fact verbatim it's a sloppy backloaded winterstorm for cmh. But who cares, afterall it's still 90 hrs out. More importantly I think the 12z runs were the furthest nw runs we'll see from here out. ok now this might be the rum talking but I'm gonna say it: I think this comes full circle and morphs back into an app runner DaMMIT... :weenie: the block is looking better in addition there is energy already entering the southern rockies on this things tail at 90+ hours. now let dr. no take me down in flames plenty of alcohol to do it Honestly, I'm not expecting things to stay static for another 4 days. I'm not sure what's going to transpire with the models, but just a hunch, the final outcome is not going to be identical to the 23/0z GFS. And that's unfortunate, at least locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Verbatim, you'd do very well even without LES. You did ok for GHD 2011. Discounting LES, I haven't seen a "decent" storm here since December 2008. We had a somewhat decent sized storm in January 2009. I think the wind flow and upper air temps are too weak for LES off Lake Ontario with this storm, its not really supportive, maybe something really localized but not widespread. GFS seems consistent with the track or is starting to, 0z Nam was East however compared to the GFS but the Nam usually lags in its long range. 0z ECMWF will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Verbatim, you'd do very well even without LES. You did ok for GHD 2011. Discounting LES, I haven't seen a "decent" storm here since December 2008. Good point, GHD was decent in Hamilton/Niagara, got 28cm from that. I am definitely keeping a close eye on this one. Will probably wait till Monday/Tuesday before doing a more in depth forecast for snow totals as there is quite a lot of spread atm as you obviously see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GEM blinks... 991 hPa over southeast KY @ hr 85. Would please the OH crew. EDIT: begins tranferring to interior coast soon after. Snow reaches extreme SE MI on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Next system is much faster and a little stronger than it was on earlier Gfs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gem didn't get where I need it to be, but it's a huge improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GEM blinks... 991 hPa over southeast KY @ hr 85. Would please the OH crew. EDIT: begins tranferring to interior coast soon after. Snow reaches extreme SE MI on this run. Looks like a similar track to the GFS but is colder and nails west and north OH. Not sure why the GFS stays a little to warm for snow here when its sitting on the OH/WV border at hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Next system is much faster and a little stronger than it was on earlier Gfs.... Then it supposedly fizzles over Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 We had a somewhat decent sized storm in January 2009. I think the wind flow and upper air temps are too weak for LES off Lake Ontario with this storm, its not really supportive, maybe something really localized but not widespread. GFS seems consistent with the track or is starting to, 0z Nam was East however compared to the GFS but the Nam usually lags in its long range. 0z ECMWF will be interesting. The Jan 2009 storm was aided significantly from LES. Synoptically, it wasn't impressive at all. Just a well place clipper, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Honestly, I'm not expecting things to stay static for another 4 days. I'm not sure what's going to transpire with the models, but just a hunch, the final outcome is not going to be identical to the 23/0z GFS. And that's unfortunate, at least locally. Let's just hope it doesn't continue its northwest trend or it will be congratulations Sudbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GEM blinks... 991 hPa over southeast KY @ hr 85. Would please the OH crew. EDIT: begins tranferring to interior coast soon after. Snow reaches extreme SE MI on this run. Damn, need a spoiler alert. I'm still waiting for the damn black and whites to update at the ec website. Anyways, good trend it seems, even if it's not all the way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This setup looks like Dec 16 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Jan 2009 storm was aided significantly from LES. Synoptically, it wasn't impressive at all. Just a well place clipper, IIRC. True but its still better than anything we've gotten since -_- Have you seen the latest 0z GGEM yet? Not bad, similar to the 0z GFS, but its an improvement from the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.