jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 i honestly haven't been following as closely as normal...too busy with other holiday season activities. I'll have some time tomorrow or later tonight to look over things. These type of fringe OH valley cutter / LE combos can be good for 3-4" but that's probably best case scenario. ILL I-N-I! and haven't followed as closely today thanks to family activities but I see things are looking a bit better for southern Illinois today on the models, looks interesting still, that's all you want this far out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Guess I'm looking to be in the sweet spot for this one currently on the GFS. That always makes me nervous this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think the first system will decide the track big time. But I think the models are underplaying ridging in front of the 2nd wave regardless of placement. As well as amplification of the wave, closing off the vort max and the trough axis swinging negative. So that basically leaves us with a West/Central Louisiana track to Southern Indiana. If it can really bomb out maybe even a bit west of that before transferring to WNY or NE Ohio, or Southern Canada. That is about as far West as I can see this getting. Would line up Southern Mo to Mt. Vernon, IL up towards LAF getting 12" maybe more. with STL getting 3-5 inches maybe 4-8 with that set up and 8-12 on the SE side. Chicago cashing in 3-5". But then again it can go as far East as West Central Miss. to South Central, or even West Central Ohio before a transfer. Giving STL maybe 1-2 inches if we are lucky, probably nothing. Chicago nothing, Laf maybe a bit more than STL if much. With people From Eastern Arkansas to Det getting the big jackpot. I think Detroit get's smoked on most out comes with an amplified closed vort max. I can't see a flat wave with a SLP from SE Texas(gulf coast) to Southern TN or so to Virginia/North Carolina. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Couple of items of interest The dynamics on the models are quite impressive. Favorable omega in the snow growth zone - -10 to -20 area at the peak of the storm over the KPAH area. Trowel feature showing up on the 850 and 700 mb chart. The vv's are probably sufficient enough to produce some 1-2" per hour rates somewhere in this area. I am hesitant to say 2-3" per hour rates. We rarely see that in the KPAH region - it can happen, but just not very often. Winds as the low winds up should be in the 20-30 mph range. The KPAH office has never issued a blizzard warning - ever. That gives you an indicator of how rare blizzards are in our region. I doubt this system would meet blizzard criteria. Winds, however, should be high enough to cause quite a bit of blowing and drifting. We would likely see a window of 8-12 hour winds (perhaps a little longer) in the 20-30 mph range with some gusts over 40 mph. Looking at the GFS leads me to believe that there could be some convective nature to the snow - banding likely would occur over parts of MO/IL - hard to place that just yet. Some NWS offices believe we might see an east/southeast trend. Here are some of the features that are impressive on the GFS Snow ratio KPAH Some of the images used from wright-weather.com with permission Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think the first system will decide the track big time. But I think the models are underplaying ridging in front of the 2nd wave regardless of placement. As well as amplification of the wave, closing off the vort max and the trough axis swinging negative. So that basically leaves us with a West/Central Louisiana track to Southern Indiana. If it can really bomb out maybe even a bit west of that before transferring to WNY or NE Ohio, or Southern Canada. That is about as far West as I can see this getting. Would line up Southern Mo to Mt. Vernon, IL up towards LAF getting 12" maybe more. with STL getting 3-5 inches maybe 4-8 with that set up and 8-12 on the SE side. Chicago cashing in 3-5". But then again it can go as far East as West Central Miss. to South Central, or even West Central Ohio before a transfer. Giving STL maybe 1-2 inches if we are lucky, probably nothing. Chicago nothing, Laf maybe a bit more than STL if much. With people From Eastern Arkansas to Det getting the big jackpot. I think Detroit get's smoked on most out comes with an amplified closed vort max. I can't see a flat wave with a SLP from SE Texas(gulf coast) to Southern TN or so to Virginia/North Carolina. Not happening. If you think that the furthest east this storm will track is west central Ohio you are off your rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah LAF is cashing if the primary goes through west central OH...or anything from central to western OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If you think that the furthest east this storm will track is west central Ohio you are off your rocker. Agreed...GFS is furthest west and is in central Ohio now. GEM still advertising east coast storm (although that far east seems highly unlikely at this point) My first guess would be for a track along the Ohio/WV border with max snow totals from East of Indy to Lima Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 As much as other models have wavered over the last few days. The Euro has pretty much stayed on the same track with just minor deviations (ticks to the left). I would ride that track over anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This thing can get as strong as it wants from my perspective, but that's stating the obvious, I can't believe the GFS and Euro have Chicago squarely in the game, given the suppression trend that was looking difficult to ignore around mid to late week. Alek deserves some snow, so I'm rooting for him and Snowstormcanuck if both can do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Agreed...GFS is furthest west and is in central Ohio now. GEM still advertising east coast storm (although that far east seems highly unlikely at this point) My first guess would be for a track along the Ohio/WV border with max snow totals from East of Indy to Lima I like the way you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 As much as other models have wavered over the last few days. The Euro has pretty much stayed on the same track with just minor deviations (ticks to the left). I would ride that track over anything right now. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This thing can get as strong as it wants from my perspective, but that's stating the obvious, I can't believe the GFS and Euro have Chicago squarely in the game, given the suppression trend that was looking difficult to ignore around mid to late week. Alek deserves some snow, so I'm rooting for him and Snowstormcanuck if both can do pretty well. meh, i've had plenty of good years. I'm a couple more years of clunkers before i'm due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 meh, i've had plenty of good years. I'm a couple more years of clunkers before i'm due So what you are saying is a 02-03 winter for you, where the Eastern Lakes cash in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If you think that the furthest east this storm will track is west central Ohio you are off your rocker. Amen to that! I'm thinking this will track to around the OH/WV border before a possible transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 meh, i've had plenty of good years. I'm a couple more years of clunkers before i'm due I just meant from the standpoint of seeing your first measurable snow, which you might anyways if the storm stays SE and you get lake effect. Of course, I hope it's meaningful snow because I know you want the futility record, so if it's 0.2" or something, I understand if you want no part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 One of the top analogs in the 2004 system was much different in the upper and mid levels. And the air mass coming in was much colder. The 18z GFS. At H5 there is confluence to the NE. But not enough to stop an amplifying trough that is negatively tilting from swinging around the Vort in Canada once they phase together when the energy heads for the lakes.There is nothing in the way of this to send it into North Carolina. Maybe saying the furthest West it will go is SW Ohio before a transfer was a bit to much. I think the Euro will adjust towards the GFS and we will see the H5 vort close off and the mid levels bomb out, while the SLP takes a hard left from the Deep South into the Ohio Valley. I don't think places like Toledo, Ohio will see much rain. The 12Z GFS sends the primary right into Western Southern, Ohio and drops mostly snow in most of Ohio from what I remember. There is just nothing stopping this system from heading NNE out of the Gulf States. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 For what it is worth... 993 mb low on the eastern side of Ohio at 7:00 PM Wednesday Evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not looking for much to happen here. Flurries, maybe. If there is a chance of LES, it is so hit or miss, that it's not worth getting excited about I am thinking, with the run-to-run consistency of the models so far, I don't see this thing tracking back west, at least not by much. I'll look at it again perhaps Monday, but as for right now, I am thinking the western GL is going to be mostly out of this one, with the possiblity of the SE part of LOT's CWA seeing an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 For what it is worth... 993 mb low on the eastern side of Ohio at 7:00 PM Wednesday Evening... Just picture perfect for a large snow for me. Absolutely perfect. Seriously though people I mentioned last night this one reminds me a lot of the 2002 Xmas Storm and the CIPS analogs have it at #1 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Latest GFS looks really good for the GTA, hopefully models come into agreement with a path like the GFS. Would likely be some lake enhancement off of Lake Ontario as well into the Hamilton/Burlington/Niagara areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 One of the top analogs in the 2004 system was much different in the upper and mid levels. And the air mass coming in was much colder. The 18z GFS. At H5 there is confluence to the NE. But not enough to stop an amplifying trough that is negatively tilting from swinging around the Vort in Canada once they phase together when the energy heads for the lakes.There is nothing in the way of this to send it into North Carolina. Maybe saying the furthest West it will go is SW Ohio before a transfer was a bit to much. I think the Euro will adjust towards the GFS and we will see the H5 vort close off and the mid levels bomb out, while the SLP takes a hard left from the Deep South into the Ohio Valley. I don't think places like Toledo, Ohio will see much rain. The 12Z GFS sends the primary right into Western Southern, Ohio and drops mostly snow in most of Ohio from what I remember. There is just nothing stopping this system from heading NNE out of the Gulf States. We will see. I would be truly shocked if a storm like this has rain anywhere west of I-71 really. Almost every time we have a setup like this it winds up essentially running along the Ohio River thru the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 My early estimate is that 0Z NAM will be farther northwest than it was at 18Z, based on weaker lead wave (3mb at the surface vs 12z) and position of ULL in Canada. We'll see... weaker at 500 than GFS at 12Z TUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nam is south/east of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Still not as amplified but is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nam is south/east of the GFS. What are you basing that on, the snowmaps? It is southeast of the GFS but it did take a step NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schaefertax Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What time does the 0z gfs run can't remener Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What time does the 0z gfs run can't remener Starts at 10:30ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Track looks supurb for Detroit and our area. Been a long time since we had a good and cold storm where we sat on the cold side of the low. Going to have to move the equipment onsite tomorrow. looking to be a great Christmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 FWIW, SREF 21Z MSLP @ hr 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 21z SREF takes the mid-level closed low into southern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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