buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The problem is what you don't see - the primary making it from Cincy into East Central OH between those frames yup that would do it... lol the euro has yet to show a 12 hr increment in which the primary was at it's furthest north point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The problem is what you don't see - the primary making it from Cincy into East Central OH between those frames how common is it for a low to redevelop so far inland like that? I thought most redev happened on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Or the weather gods have a new favorite city to screw over... ORD will become the next YYZ Chicago gets no tears from me after 4 consecutive years of 50"+ seasons AND a 20"+ snowstorm to tout. Maybe after another season or two similar to 2011-2012 will I start to feel bad for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We may get a track like '04 but keep in mind that one was a two parter coming just hours apart, both of which dropped heavy snow and why the totals got out of hand in some areas. This one doesn't really look like that. Yep great point! And this storm doesn't have quite the same moisture connection as the 04 one did. Not saying we won't see some significant snow amounts - just likely not anywhere close to what we saw in 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 IND AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 255 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 248 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA BEGINNING CHRISTMAS NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK WHICH DECREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH. LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS AND UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG UPPER FORCING IN THE WAY OF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA POSSIBLY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH AT PRECIPITATION ONSET WHERE A WINTRY MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6-9 INCHES. THIS COULD CHANGE DRASTICALLY WITH A CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW THOUGH AND WITH HIGH ENSEMBLE VARIABILITY NOT READY TO PUT ANYTHING THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER THEN UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON FRIDAY THAT COULD BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGHS PULLING DOWN COLD CANADIAN AIR. GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALLBLEND FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Come on NW shift, my money is on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I agree, something isn't clicking with the phasing right now. Basically you have a strong southeast ridge with the pv blocking this going over the upper midwest. Alot of work to be still done. Does she want to be a blockbuster or a secl/sovl? the last refuge of the desperate weenie...quoting JB: Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi Hint on ECMF/GFS is less than norm deepening once past 35 n. So much of model warmth is feedback.. prob overest of warm advection he also says JMA is in the east crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 yup that would do it... lol the euro has yet to show a 12 hr increment in which the primary was at it's furthest north point. how common is it for a low to redevelop so far inland like that? I thought most redev happened on the coast The primary is the first low... that low develops first and heads north/northeast until it hits a wall basically at I-70 in Eastern OH, then the secondary takes over and becomes the dominate low as it hugs the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 the last refuge of the desperate weenie...quoting JB: Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi Hint on ECMF/GFS is less than norm deepening once past 35 n. So much of model warmth is feedback.. prob overest of warm advection he also says JMA is in the east crowd JMA is still probably a bit west of yesterday's 0z... still throws some measurable precip into Ohio. But FWIW JB also said that he favors a storm track into Ohio then a jump to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Chicago gets no tears from me after 4 consecutive years of 50"+ seasons AND a 20"+ snowstorm to tout. Maybe after another season or two similar to 2011-2012 will I start to feel bad for them. Nobody want your tears, douche. At the end of the day they at least still have Chicago and not Detoilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nobody want your tears, douche. At the end of the day they at least still have Chicago and not Detoilet. Well, someone is mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nobody want your tears, douche. At the end of the day they at least still have Chicago and not Detoilet. Haha wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nobody want your tears, douche. At the end of the day they at least still have Chicago and not Detoilet. Jesus man....relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 JMA is still probably a bit west of yesterday's 0z... still throws some measurable precip into Ohio. But FWIW JB also said that he favors a storm track into Ohio then a jump to the coast... actually up to ohio (i know hair splitting lol) but...his snow forecast map looks just like the ones that hammered ohio the last day or two on some of the models oh well either way it's in the hands of Dr. No. Tonights 00z run will make me decide whether to concede or keep he weenie dream alive. off to a family dysfunctional xmas dinner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 DTX seems to favor a EURO/GFS/"Local WRF Global" consensus. Discuss that GGEM can have a cold bias at times. 2. AT THE SAME TIME, THE DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE PRECEDING THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC WAVE IS FORECAST TO FRAGMENT THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ALLOWING A GREAT DEAL OF ENERGY TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CONUS AND SPIN UP A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC WAVE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE JET LONG PROGGED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DIG ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST, RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY FAVORED TO TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE OVER THE EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THE 12Z EC/GFS/LOCAL WRF GLOBAL REMAIN IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER, THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WOULD STILL NECESSITATE AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WHEN AND WHERE THAT OCCURS MAY VERY WELL BE A STICKING POINT OF THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES AND A FIRST ORDER CONTRIBUTOR TO LOCAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL, OR LACK THEREOF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT NEITHER THE 12Z UKMET NOR GEM ALLOW THE LOW TO WRAP UP AS QUICKLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, A CLOSER LOOK AT THE GEM REVEALS WHAT SEEMS TO BE A MUTED BAROCLINIC RELEASE DURING TUESDAY`S CRITICAL DEEPENING PERIOD. THIS IS NOT ATYPICAL OF A MODEL WHICH CAN EXHIBIT A COLD BIAS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE THEREFORE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE EC/GFS/WRF GLOBAL DEPICTIONS. AS FOR ACCUMULATION, THE POTENTIAL IS MOST CERTAINLY THERE FOR A SOLID EVENT, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY TO IRON OUT WITH RESPECT TO LOCAL DURATION/INTENSITY/INTEGRITY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEFORMATION FORCING OVER THE NEXT 100 HOURS OR SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Brandon, I see you lurking on here. Care to share your first guess map? I saw it posted on the the Randolph County EMA site. I hope that verifies. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 so much animosity over a 6" snow storm....AGW is hitting hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 After the dearth of good snowstorms in the subforum in the recent past, 6" is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 After the dearth of good snowstorms in the subforum in the recent past, 6" is a big deal. trolling aside....the lack of 1-4" bread and butter events is a much bigger deal. Big Dogs are rare in the midwest and outside a select few (SSC) is overdue. Anyways, E. IN, NW OH and extreme SE MI looks good for 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ECMWF Ens pretty much in line with the OP... hard to see on their maps but Raleighwx's isn't updated just yet. EDIT: 997mb over Southern Kentucky... almost same positioning and temps as the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18Z NAM pretty far south and east by hour 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18Z NAM pretty far south and east by hour 84... Mistake Number 1 - looking at hour 84 of the NAM. It really isn't very reliable until you are inside 60 hours, at least IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 trolling aside....the lack of 1-4" bread and butter events is a much bigger deal. Big Dogs are rare in the midwest and outside a select few (SSC) is overdue. Anyways, E. IN, NW OH and extreme SE MI looks good for 4-7". LAF call? T to 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Mistake Number 1 - looking at hour 84 of the NAM. It really isn't very reliable until you are inside 60 hours, at least IMO. I know. Ha. It's worth a mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm happy to see another major system traverse the country delivering heavy snowfall. This will make the 3rd one in the last 2 1/2 weeks. Definitely a big improvement over last season, and it's only xmas time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm happy to see another major system traverse the country delivering heavy snowfall. This will make the 3rd one in the last 2 1/2 weeks. Definitely a big improvement over last season, and it's only xmas time. Strongly agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ILN AFD A AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 417 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN WAKE OF EARLY WEEK SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WINTER STORM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT MID WEEK. VIGOROUS MID LEVEL S/W TO LIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH VLY TUESDAY NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE WHICH LIFTS NE THRU THE REGION WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLNS HAVE BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT AND THE LATEST 12Z RUN BRINGS MORE WARM AIR INTO ILN/S FA. THE ECMWF SOLN HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WEST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN IS PLACED FURTHER EAST THAN THE DETERMINISTIC RUN. HAVE TRENDED THE LATEST FCST TOWARD THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY AND EVIDENCE FROM THE ENSEMBLE SOLNS. HAVE SPREAD LKLY POPS IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICE. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. USING AT TOP DOWN TECHNIQUE APPLIED TO LATEST ECMWF SOLN HAVE WEST CENTRAL OHIO (NORTH OF DAYTON) STAYING ALL SNOW BUT HAVE A MIX SPREADING INTO THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA DURING THE DAY ON WED. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM...HAVE ALL PRECIP CHANGE BACK TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WINTER STORM LIFTS NE WILL TAPER OFF SNOW EARLY ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD IN PROVIDING DRY WX CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE SPREAD THIS CHC ACRS THE ENTIRE FA FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This may be Indiana/Chicago snowstorm. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This may be Indiana/Chicago snowstorm. Lmfao. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Because the models aren't as dug in as they could be and a nice southeast ridge is butting into play. I am worried..................... Take a Xanax or some OxyContin...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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