December 26th - 27th Winter Storm

[AppsRunner]

Mixing issues for the first half inch or so....not sure what you're looking at.

Also it's 1.35" not .9" Though I suppose you could argue the last .9" would be frozen...

[toronto blizzard]

WOW over an 1.00'' QPF!

[Chicago WX]

There was some nondescript line about analogs suggesting it will track farther northwest...and it seems like he's not ready to buy into an all snow solution.

If it's like his half-baked analogs that he uses for seasonal forecasting, then lolz.

Best of course to keep all options on the table right now.

[JayPSU]

No need to "freak-out" over one set of model runs. The good thing for us Southern Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio folks is that the op GFS doesn't agree to well with its ensemble members. What raises some concern is the shift NW from the EURO...but let's see what it's ensemble members have to say

The concern was always a trend back NW. The fact that it has already begun is almost certainly a deathnail for our area.

[Thundersnow12]

It would be hilarious if this trends back where it was like on Weds as Hoosier said.

[buckeye]

The concern was always a trend back NW. The fact that it has already begun is almost certainly a deathnail for our area.

I really would give it to tonights 00z runs. For a couple reasons. It wasn't really a trend as much as a pretty sudden shift. Second, even though they're not the most reliable models, the uk and ggem being so far east still seems odd to me.

If euro is still at same location or further nw on the 00z run....Yea...it's over for us.

[Chicago Storm]

Not going to do everything Joe does with text data... just posting totals for now:

YYZ: 1.11"

DTW: .74"

TDZ: .77"

CLE: 1.18"

CMH: 1.11" *Mostly rain

DAY: .96"

IND: .99"

LAF: .52"

MIE: .85"

I'm sure I've missed a few of you so let me know if you need another city done.

Thanks for holding it down.

Main list coming soon.

[JoMo]

I really would give it to tonights 00z runs. For a couple reasons. It wasn't really a trend as much as a pretty sudden shift. Second, even though they're not the most reliable models, the uk and ggem being so far east still seems odd to me.

If euro is still at same location or further nw on the 00z run....Yea...it's over for us.

Not sure about the UKMET but the GGEM amplified the lead wave too much when compared to the other models so the second wave wound up farther east.

[Amos83]

Also it's 1.35" not .9" Though I suppose you could argue the last .9" would be frozen...

Either way I won't complain.... Just need it to not trend too far nw

[A-L-E-K]

checking in...congrats Ohio. This one isn't trending back west.

[buckeye]

checking in...congrats Ohio. This one isn't trending back west.

make sure you check back in tomorrow so we can congrats YOU

[Hoosier]

Alek hellbent on keeping the personal futility alive.

[buckeye]

Alek hellbent on keeping the personal futility alive.

meh, maybe this is the karma storm.... afterall chicago did get screwed hard on the last one.

[AppsRunner]

meh, maybe this is the karma storm.... afterall chicago did get screwed hard on the last one.

Or the weather gods have a new favorite city to screw over... ORD will become the next YYZ

[A-L-E-K]

meh, maybe this is the karma storm.... afterall chicago did get screwed hard on the last one.

I was 1" off my official forecasted total...i've had much worse busts.

[Hoosier]

Just had a look at the individual 12z GFS ensemble members. Most seem to be near or a bit southeast of the op track...a couple are farther north.

[Chicago Storm]

12z ECMWF Text List

STL:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 -5.9 1013 78 86 0.06 544 534
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.1 -7.4 1017 66 40 0.02 545 532 

PAH:

WED 00Z 26-DEC 4.0 1.6 1012 69 78 0.01 553 544
WED 06Z 26-DEC 1.0 0.3 1004 95 99 0.69 547 544
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.2 -5.8 1003 89 99 0.49 539 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.6 -6.8 1011 80 93 0.30 543 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.2 -6.7 1018 76 23 0.01 547 533

DEC:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.4 -4.6 1012 81 92 0.06 544 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.1 -7.5 1013 78 97 0.10 543 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -8.1 1018 76 13 0.02 544 531

MDW:

WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.2 -8.1 1017 75 39 0.01 546 532
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.2 -8.6 1015 74 75 0.02 543 531
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.2 -8.4 1016 73 54 0.03 543 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.1 -8.3 1018 72 7 0.01 545 531

VPZ:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.6 -5.8 1016 77 74 0.01 546 534
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.3 -6.6 1013 79 99 0.09 542 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.7 -8.4 1014 79 93 0.13 542 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.0 -7.3 1016 76 30 0.01 544 531

LAF:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -4.0 1011 81 95 0.07 545 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -5.3 1009 84 97 0.24 541 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.3 -7.8 1013 85 92 0.21 541 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.6 -7.4 1016 81 31 0.01 545 532

IND:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.9 -2.1 1007 86 100 0.31 546 540
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.7 -6.3 1004 90 100 0.46 539 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.5 -7.9 1011 87 91 0.20 540 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.5 -8.2 1015 85 52 0.02 544 532

BMG:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.9 -0.2 1013 82 79 0.03 550 540
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.4 -1.7 1003 87 100 0.51 544 541
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.9 -5.8 1003 89 99 0.39 538 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -8.2 1011 84 84 0.17 541 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.4 -8.5 1016 85 32 0.02 546 533

OKK:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.7 -3.7 1011 84 97 0.07 546 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.4 -5.7 1007 87 100 0.30 540 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.8 -7.7 1010 87 96 0.27 540 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.5 1015 83 62 0.02 543 531

FWA:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.2 -3.3 1013 85 91 0.04 548 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.3 -5.4 1007 84 100 0.26 542 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.3 1008 85 95 0.26 539 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.4 -8.1 1012 82 79 0.03 541 531

MKG:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.6 -6.1 1016 77 82 0.03 542 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.4 -6.1 1016 77 61 0.01 542 529

GRR:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.9 -7.8 1015 70 90 0.02 544 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.3 1014 79 97 0.11 541 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.2 -7.6 1015 81 86 0.04 541 529 

BTL:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.2 -6.0 1013 75 99 0.06 544 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.9 -8.4 1012 85 95 0.20 540 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.7 -8.6 1014 82 86 0.07 541 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.7 -6.5 1017 85 39 0.01 544 531

MOP:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -4.0 -8.9 1023 84 8 0.01 548 530
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.4 -8.4 1017 74 62 0.01 545 531
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.9 -8.0 1015 82 98 0.07 542 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.7 -7.2 1014 83 96 0.09 540 529
THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.7 -7.0 1016 84 68 0.02 542 529

PNT:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -7.3 1016 77 60 0.01 546 533
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.1 -8.5 1015 73 80 0.03 543 531
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.5 -7.5 1018 71 13 0.01 544 530 

DTW:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.1 -4.7 1019 79 73 0.01 549 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.3 -4.5 1010 83 99 0.12 546 537
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.9 -7.3 1008 87 99 0.44 539 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.8 1008 87 93 0.12 538 531
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.5 -9.8 1011 85 71 0.04 540 531
THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.1 -6.0 1016 75 48 0.01 545 532

DET:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -4.6 1011 81 98 0.10 546 537
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.6 1008 88 100 0.49 540 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.1 -8.5 1008 85 98 0.15 538 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.8 -10.0 1011 83 71 0.04 539 531
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.4 -6.9 1015 77 50 0.01 544 532 

TDZ:

WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.6 -3.6 1015 78 78 0.02 549 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.2 -5.9 1007 90 99 0.22 544 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.2 -6.6 1005 89 98 0.42 539 535
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.5 -8.5 1008 87 92 0.08 538 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.2 -9.3 1012 84 75 0.03 540 531

DAY:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -0.3 1007 91 100 0.39 550 544
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.1 -1.2 999 93 86 0.37 540 540
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.5 -5.1 1002 93 95 0.15 538 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -8.4 1010 87 85 0.04 540 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.3 -8.2 1016 84 51 0.01 545 532 

HAO:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 1.1 0.1 1015 83 71 0.01 553 541
WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.4 -0.3 1004 92 99 0.49 549 545
WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.7 0.3 997 93 83 0.29 538 541
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.7 -5.4 1003 89 99 0.18 538 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.5 -8.9 1011 85 83 0.03 541 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.5 -7.5 1017 83 40 0.01 547 534 

CMH:

WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.0 0.5 1009 91 100 0.33 552 544
WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.2 0.2 999 90 85 0.47 542 543
THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.6 -1.7 998 95 99 0.18 537 539
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.1 -6.4 1005 89 92 0.11 538 534
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.0 -9.8 1012 85 78 0.02 542 532

CLE:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.7 -1.2 1016 85 80 0.02 552 539
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.3 1007 90 99 0.50 547 542
THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.6 -4.0 1001 92 97 0.41 539 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC 0.6 -6.4 1002 91 94 0.13 537 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.8 -8.9 1008 84 94 0.07 538 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.1 -9.9 1014 74 73 0.03 542 532
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -1.3 -6.7 1018 80 26 0.02 548 534

YKF:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -5.7 -3.8 1018 79 88 0.03 549 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -6.0 -4.4 1010 87 100 0.45 545 537
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.9 -7.1 1006 87 100 0.37 538 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.7 -8.4 1007 81 95 0.08 537 531
THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.9 -9.9 1010 73 95 0.01 537 530

YYZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.7 -4.9 1019 78 83 0.03 550 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.9 -4.3 1012 88 100 0.45 546 537
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.1 -7.5 1007 89 100 0.47 539 534
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.0 -8.5 1006 84 94 0.13 537 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.4 -9.3 1008 76 97 0.02 537 530
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -4.7 -8.1 1013 79 72 0.01 540 530

[Guru Of Reason]

meh, maybe this is the karma storm.... afterall chicago did get screwed hard on the last one.

But...but...I have nearly 3000 Reddit karma points! We really need it here.

[stormtrackertf]

Trying not to get excited, but it's hard to ignore the prospects of the first real snowstorm in nearly 2 years in these parts. Even just 4-5 inches would be pretty great after such a snow drought.

[PatrickSumner]

Can someone post 12Z GFS snowfall clown map?

[AppsRunner]

Can someone post 12Z GFS snowfall clown map?

http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

Bookmark and enjoy

[Hoosier]

GFS actually implies a period of near blizzard conditions for LAF.

[OntarioWX]

I'm back at home for the holidays (Chatham-Kent, Ontario) and will be situated on the north shore of Lake Erie right above Cleveland. I'm really liking my spot for this storm, and am even more psyched to hear that the December 2004 storm is being tossed around as an analogue considering that was probably the best winter storm here I've witnessed in my life.

[chuckster2013]

I'm back at home for the holidays (Chatham-Kent, Ontario) and will be situated on the north shore of Lake Erie right above Cleveland. I'm really liking my spot for this storm, and am even more psyched to hear that the December 2004 storm is being tossed around as an analogue considering that was probably the best winter storm here I've witnessed in my life.

2004 pre-xmas storm dumped 25" on me....

[Central Illinois]

Very nice run.

I would take it GFS is a nice hit here and to the east

[Hoosier]

We may get a track like '04 but keep in mind that one was a two parter coming just hours apart, both of which dropped heavy snow and why the totals got out of hand in some areas. This one doesn't really look like that.

[stormtrackertf]

2004 pre-xmas storm dumped 25" on me....

What a crowd pleaser that was. I got around 11" here IMBY if I remember correctly. Really set the tone for a perfect white Christmas, with temperatures hovering around zero on Christmas Eve and early Christmas morning. What I'd do for a repeat of that again some Christmas.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Wow, the 12z GFS even looked good for Toronto. I'm sure it'll correct itself though to everyone from Ohio to Buffalo to Albany to Boston getting snow, but not Toronto.

[buckeye]

quite honestly looking at this, if I didn't see temp profiles I'd probably think this would be a good (albeit close) hit for us. just south of louisville to nj.

[AppsRunner]

quite honestly looking at this, if I didn't see temp profiles I'd probably think this would be a good (albeit close) hit for us. just south of louisville to nj.

The problem is what you don't see - the primary making it from Cincy into East Central OH between those frames