buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 big diff here is the block up north splits and opens a hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Let's see what the Euro does. JB discounting the GFS so obviously it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Verbatim, pretty good "share the wealth" type storm. Even ORD and MKE, which looked totally out of the game yesterday, make out with AOA 0.25". I wonder if most of that is LES or if it is the NW edge of the synoptic snow, I know some of MKE's is lake effect, which may well be heftier than it is showing now, as lake effect bands are not well modeled this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Let's see what the Euro does. JB discounting the GFS so obviously it's right. Without even looking I can tell that means the GFS is less wintry for the 95 cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Without even looking I can tell that means the GFS is less wintry for the 95 cities Of course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Verbatim, pretty good "share the wealth" type storm. Even ORD and MKE, which looked totally out of the game yesterday, make out with AOA 0.25". Hands Across America the Sub-forum storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hands Across the Sub-forum storm? IF the GFS actually verified, the NW edge line of the best accumulating snow would align with the SE edge of the best accumulating snow from the storm the other day. Much like in that storm, the NW edge of the best accumulating snow aligned with the SE edge of the Minnesota storm a week earlier. Mother Nature is trying lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 IF the GFS actually verified, the NW edge line of the best accumulating snow would align with the SE edge of the best accumulating snow from the storm the other day. Much like in that storm, the NW edge of the best accumulating snow aligned with the SE edge of the Minnesota storm a week earlier. Mother Nature is trying lol. I know she is, and there is another weaker system down the pike showing up late next week into the weekend that could replenish whatever of the snowpack tries to melt off for the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GGEM will not play ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GGEM will not play ball. It's odd because it retrogrades that one vortex towards Manitoba, just like the EURO and GFS but it never interacts with southern stream wave. That wave just zips along and actually deamplifies as it heads east. Seems unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stud Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nowhere close to the immediate metro??? it's closer to Downtown than major reporting sites in cities like Chicago, Houston.. also a weather nightmare??? that I highly beg to differ on as well, having 2 of the 3 most expensive hailstorms in American history, a tornado going across the airport, that's not even looking at winter weather. Yeah we didn't get a lot of snow last year, but the weather is FAR from not exciting at all. 3 miles can make or break you here. NW gets it nearly every time. Aside from recent events, there's not much to talk about that's exciting. A good snow storm once every 5+ years is F'd up. Live here and watch it all go around you nearly every time. You will become jaded very fast. We won't even talk about the Florida, I mean stl, winters in the 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GGEM will not play ball. Significant difference with the Christmas Eve s/w. GGEM indicates 999 hPa low over northern Ohio as opposed to the GFS showcasing 1007 mb low over southern Ohio. The GGEM would result in more confluence and prevent significant height rises. Hopefully the models can resolve the details of this lead s/w soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 3 miles can make or break you here. NW gets it nearly every time. Aside from recent events, there's not much to talk about that's exciting. A good snow storm once every 5+ years is F'd up. Live here and watch it all go around you nearly every time. You will become jaded very fast. We won't even talk about the Florida, I mean stl, winters in the 90s. Move 3 miles NW. You live in an urban, warmer area. Quit crying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's odd because it retrogrades that one vortex towards Manitoba, just like the EURO and GFS but it never interacts with southern stream wave. That wave just zips along and actually deamplifies as it heads east. Seems unlikely to me. Significant difference with the Christmas Eve s/w. GGEM indicates 999 hPa low over northern Ohio as opposed to the GFS showcasing 1007 mb low over southern Ohio. The GGEM would result in more confluence and prevent significant height rises. Hopefully the models can resolve the details of this lead s/w soon. Yeah, you're both right. Judging off the 72 hour map, looks like the 12z UK will stay in the same camp as the GGEM...definitely with wave #1 and probably for wave #2. Battle rages on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just saw the 12z UK at 96 hours. It's definitely farther northwest than the GGEM, not by much maybe, but still wide right of the GFS/prior Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just saw the 12z UK at 96 hours. It's definitely farther northwest than the GGEM, not by much maybe, but still wide right of the GFS/prior Euro runs. Watch the EURO go hard east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Op GFS looks like its a western outlier among its ensemble mean. Some precip for parts of IN, MI, and then up to YYZ...but OH would be favored. EDIT: probably nitpicking, but the 12z mean actually looks like it has the low a little farther northwest than the 0z or 6z run...but precip is a little different. Eh, I'm thinking too much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Watch the EURO go hard east. That would be bad. Probably would be a good time for me to log off the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Definitely congrats, IN, S MI, most of OH on the 12z GFS. The low doesn't look really far west, but the precipitation field is more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like the GFS ensemble mean is east of the operational. Storm un-cancel in Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Op GFS looks like its a western outlier among its ensemble mean. Some precip for parts of IN, MI, and then up to YYZ...but OH would be favored. EDIT: probably nitpicking, but the 12z mean actually looks like it has the low a little farther northwest than the 0z or 6z run...but precip is a little different. Eh, I'm thinking too much here. It'd be funny if we trend back toward the solutions from days ago and end up worrying about mixing. I don't think we can trend back that far...err hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It'd be funny if we trend back toward the solutions from days ago and end up worrying about mixing. I don't think we can trend back that far...err hopefully not. I though about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro warmer and a hair NW through 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro not budging...on a storm coming up this way anyway. Details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12Z ECMWF deeper, farther northwest at 96 Hours, surface low over SME ~994mb, 0Z was near Crossville TN ~995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is a bit stronger at 96 hours. WTOD concerns into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 BTW, AppsRunner, I've seen this mentioned last night, but I do not have Euro Text data, so if Joe doesn't post, I'd appreciate some numbers. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Mixing issues up to CLE on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is a bit stronger at 96 hours. WTOD concerns into Ohio. december '02 congrats to you =me bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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