Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sitting on the fringes here with potential system, but did add two GEFS members from the 6z run that show a hit, versus the 0z run (grand total of 5 now ). Hit being something measurable...which is all I'm hoping for at this point. Odds still stacked in the other direction, but I hold out hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I have to admit xmas eve 2002 still haunts my mind and has been something I've been thinking about with this storm. For those young bucks here in central OH who don't know or recall, that was the PINNACLE WTOD screw job here. Primary up the OV and transfer to the coast. On Xmas Eve to boot! It is what all other WTOD episodes bow to. It is why I respect all WTODs. How bad was it? It snowed everywhere around us except to the south....even DC got snow from CAD. We got sleet and rain. If that happens.... YOU WILL SEE A BIG BUCK MELTDOWN!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I can't lie and say I didn't think of you buckeye when I saw the 2002 Christmas storm at the top of those rankings. One of my favorite "late trending" storms. Literally at 60+ hours, there wasn't a model showing a flake for me. And then run by run, it got better and better. Ended up with 6.5" for the best Christmas weather gift ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Christmas Eve 2002... EDIT: You beat me by seconds, Tim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 forget it guys....once you out an analog it's dead.... that's why i did it honestly I'd rather see a powerhouse bomb scream up thru central ohio and blast everyone n and w of me than to see a dec '02 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Very strong wording coming out of PAH this morning, surprised this far out but I guess its do to the holiday impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Christmas Eve 2002... EDIT: You beat me by seconds, Tim. I wasn't living here then. 7" on Christmas to melt by NYE? That sounds depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 No. This place is a weather nightmare. Have any exciting weather? Forget it. It will go N, S, E and W before you see a flake or drop. It splits around the immediate metro area 99/100. Records are from Lambert, which is nowhere close to the immediate metro. You can throw the statistics out b/c STL proper sees very little action. edit: Also, you have a better chance of winning the lottery than for STL to get snow on snow action. It just doesn't happen. nowhere close to the immediate metro??? it's closer to Downtown than major reporting sites in cities like Chicago, Houston.. also a weather nightmare??? that I highly beg to differ on as well, having 2 of the 3 most expensive hailstorms in American history, a tornado going across the airport, that's not even looking at winter weather. Yeah we didn't get a lot of snow last year, but the weather is FAR from not exciting at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I wasn't living here then. 7" on Christmas to melt by NYE? That sounds depressing. Yeah but, that winter (2002-03) was pretty good from IND to FWA. There were some mild periods in between, but overall it balanced cold and snowy for the above mentioned corridor in Indiana. Of course that means nothing with respect to this storm...just me blabbering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nowhere close to the immediate metro??? it's closer to Downtown than major reporting sites in cities like Chicago, Houston.. also a weather nightmare??? that I highly beg to differ on as well, having 2 of the 3 most expensive hailstorms in American history, a tornado going across the airport, that's not even looking at winter weather. Yeah we didn't get a lot of snow last year, but the weather is FAR from not exciting at all. I agree with this, no offense to snow lovers in STL but you are in the wrong city for snow. It is like a snow lover in Louisville or OKC getting mad about lack of snow. Sure you can get snow but every year isn't going to have a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just for fun...6z DGEX is something for the Ohio crew to hug. 18z run (prior run) was east. http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Any word on EURO ensemble members. Are they still amped as yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 kick in the balls how close this thing is to being a lot bigger storm.. still pretty epic for detroit.. no dryslot.. with .50" QPF it should get them their normal biggie storm of 4-8" Its Saturday night already? lol..I told you Detroit has a better chance of getting a 12" storm in the next 100 yrs than you keeping your word that you would stay off the board until saturday night. So slim to none. Guilty as charged, I knew I wouldn't make it, hopefully I can stay off the board on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM12z has the low almost at the same spot as the 00z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Impressed with this system. Reminds me a lot of the Christmas Storm of 2002, very similar setup only the storm will be on a more North/South track than that one. This one will probably stay at or north of the Ohio River though, very rarely do they not. Could be a close call for those in Columbus and Indy Looks like I was onto something last night when I made this post lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GFS may trend hard towards the EURO. It now has the split vortex idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GFS may trend hard towards the EURO. It now has the split vortex idea. Yes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I can't lie and say I didn't think of you buckeye when I saw the 2002 Christmas storm at the top of those rankings. One of my favorite "late trending" storms. Literally at 60+ hours, there wasn't a model showing a flake for me. And then run by run, it got better and better. Ended up with 6.5" for the best Christmas weather gift ever. I will NEVER forget watching the news the morning of Christmas Eve. The weather man said flat out "we will not have a White Christmas". Not "its not likely" or anything, flat out said "WILL NOT". Snow began at 10pm that night and by 4pm Christmas Day, I had 6.8" imby with 6.5" at DTW. 2002-03 is special to me because it was my first ever 60"+ winter, the first since 1981-82 (the year before I was born). So I had zero 60"+ winters the first 19 years of my life, and in the next 10 years, FIVE of them have been 60"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Huge Step NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yes it is I'd be crying with joy right now if this weren't still 96-120 hours out. A lot of time for things to go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd be crying with joy right now if this weren't still 96-120 hours out. A lot of time for things to go wrong. Today is the day where models start merging in agreement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lulz, I might have to worry about mixing on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lulz, I might have to worry about mixing on the 12z GFS Transfer to the coastal happens before that can occur, but it looked close for a bit. Almost a carbon copy of the EURO now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Very nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 YYZ for FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 YYZ for FTW 1.00"+. Just need to move that purple blob a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow....,did that jump NW. Still prefer the Euro....but at least the GFS is on board. All models now bring snow Christmas Eve to DTW as well (I know, seperate thread). Watching these models on a daily basis is more twisted than watching a soap opera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Verbatim, pretty good "share the wealth" type storm. Even ORD and MKE, which looked totally out of the game yesterday, make out with AOA 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Transfer to the coastal happens before that can occur, but it looked close for a bit. Almost a carbon copy of the EURO now. warmer than the euro.... looks like a rain/slop to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Let's see what the Euro does. JB discounting the GFS so obviously it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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