stud Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Poor STL...Is there a major city worse for Snowfall north of the Mason/Dixon line East of the Rockies? No. This place is a weather nightmare. Have any exciting weather? Forget it. It will go N, S, E and W before you see a flake or drop. It splits around the immediate metro area 99/100. Records are from Lambert, which is nowhere close to the immediate metro. You can throw the statistics out b/c STL proper sees very little action. edit: Also, you have a better chance of winning the lottery than for STL to get snow on snow action. It just doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 To be fair, he did say that that was all "according to a lot of people on here"....which is probably not a totally inaccurate representation of how someone who didn't know any sort of climo at all might feel if they came here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 No. This place is a weather nightmare. Have any exciting weather? Forget it. It will go N, S, E and W before you see a flake or drop. It splits around the immediate metro area 99/100. Not to go OT, but I had to stay in metro-STL (Collinsville, IL) in July 2006 for a week and they had one of the worst thunderstorms Ive ever experienced, whole town out of power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 To be fair, he did say that that was all "according to a lot of people on here"....which is probably not a totally inaccurate representation of how someone who didn't know any sort of climo at all might feel if they came here. Actually the way some people in SE MI complain on here....you are right. Other than getting a 13"+ snowstorm, there isnt a thing anyone in Detroit should complain about snow-wise since 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stud Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Not to go OT, but I had to stay in metro-STL (Collinsville, IL) in July 2006 for a week and they had one of the worst thunderstorms Ive ever experienced, whole town out of power. Yep, 2006 was also the last time we had an ice storm. The thunderstorms were bad, but not 1.5 million without power bad lol. Ameren quit cutting trees. But the double whammy was impressive (and the mets blew the forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yep, 2006 was also the last time we had an ice storm. The thunderstorms were bad, but not 1.5 million without power bad lol. Ameren quit cutting trees. But the double whammy was impressive (and the mets blew the forecast). fwiw i meant the town i was staying in, Collinsville, was powerless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Several of the GFS ensemble members are further northwest, some by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Several of the GFS ensemble members are further northwest, some by a lot. How do the EURO ensembles look??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Several of the GFS ensemble members are further northwest, some by a lot. It is something to be said that while we were in the middle of tracking this last monster, many of the models were in agreement of this one being a monster, and most were tracking the storm into the Great Lakes. It looked like a potential ice setup at first, then became more of a conventional rain/snow cutter, then disappeared for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How do the EURO ensembles look??? Not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If current model runs hold, this could be the biggest snowstorm since Christmas 2004 for Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. One thing is for sure now...last winter is NOTHING like this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Several of the GFS ensemble members are further northwest, some by a lot. kick in the balls how close this thing is to being a lot bigger storm.. still pretty epic for detroit.. no dryslot.. with .50" QPF it should get them their normal biggie storm of 4-8" It is something to be said that while we were in the middle of tracking this last monster, many of the models were in agreement of this one being a monster, and most were tracking the storm into the Great Lakes. It looked like a potential ice setup at first, then became more of a conventional rain/snow cutter, then disappeared for awhile. Its Saturday night already? lol..I told you Detroit has a better chance of getting a 12" storm in the next 100 yrs than you keeping your word that you would stay off the board until saturday night. So slim to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Text output for HUF from the EURO? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Impressed with this system. Reminds me a lot of the Christmas Storm of 2002, very similar setup only the storm will be on a more North/South track than that one. This one will probably stay at or north of the Ohio River though, very rarely do they not. Could be a close call for those in Columbus and Indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 From LMK... ...First Significant Snow Possible the Day after Christmas... After a quiet Christmas Day, the next big system looks to come into play. Models have been run-to-run consistent and both the GFS and ECMWF have been in pretty good agreement on this system, both deterministic and ensembles. The Canadian GEM is farther south with the system, but its trajectory is more typical of systems this time of year, so its solution cannot be ruled out. By 00Z Wednesday, the EC and GFS have the surface low deepening over Mississippi. This low travels toward eastern Tennessee by daybreak Wednesday, with its parent upper low over central Tennessee. This track would place a band of moderate to heavy snow somewhere across our forecast area Wednesday morning. Trying to get specific for one area and how much snow it will get is too difficult at this point, but it is appearing more likely that someone will get heavy snow on the back side of this low, with the cold air in place. The Canadian GEM solution brings the heavier snow to our southern forecast, whereas the GFS has the band over southern Indiana. The ECMWF is in between. As we have to put some snow in somewhere, have gone with southern Indiana for now as having the highest snow totals...and that being 5-7 inches of snow. This is well under the foot of snow the GFS has in a deformation band across southern Indiana. Again look for the peak values likely to change both in intensity and location! By Wednesday evening, the surface low will shift quickly to the mid Atlantic coast, bringing an end to the significant precipitation. Canadian high pressure will build into the region for Thursday and Friday. Depending on where the heaviest snow falls, very cold temperatures are possible Thursday night, as it looks ideal for radiational cooling combined with a snowpack. Guidance is no help here either, as it calls for lows around 20. Would not be surprised to see some single digits in places with the best snow pack, but these numbers can be refined as the forecast becomes more precise. Another factor could be some mid/high cloudiness coming in as a ridge axis aloft crosses our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 From IND... THE FORECAST FOCUS STILL APPEARS TO BE ON A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM AROUND MIDWEEK AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS. LIGHT PRECIP FROM MONDAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENDED BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. BUT IT COULD FIRST START OUT BRIEFLY AS MIXED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DGEX AND CANADIAN TAKE THE SURFACE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND TRACK THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP BARELY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE OPERATIONAL GFS SCENARIO WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW AS FAR NORTHWEST AS INDY. BUT THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKS RANGING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. IF THE GFS AND EURO ARE CORRECT THIS MAY WELL END UP AS OUR NEXT WINTER STORM. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM LAKE EFFECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM looks like it could end up being something big with this storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Much beter spirits since the last storm. Funny how a little blowing snow and cold will help me out. Been way too long since it looked like Detroit and areas south east were under the gun for a major accumulating snow, powder no less. Funny how I can't remember or mentally picture a storm track like this one. One thing is for sure, this cold weather pattern looks to be locked in for some time. Welcome back winter we have missed you !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z GFS snowfall. Looked like the transfer held off a bit longer so kinda surprized the totals especially in Ohio weren't a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hpc's discussion ...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST... THE 12Z/21 AND 00Z/22 GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT THREATENS THE NATION FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE DAYS 4 AND 5. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN REFORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY EARLY DAY 5. HOW CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THE SNOW AND ICE GET WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE SUPPLY OF DEEP COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE DOMINATED BY COLD, DRY AIR THIS PERIOD. THE WEST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS ENERGY POURS INTO THE REGION ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS ASTRIDE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 06z GFS is a tick further to the Northwest compared to the 00z run. But also tries to jump to the coast way too soon. Should still be a solid run for OH/IN/PA/W NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 From iWX... ON TUESDAY...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS/EC HAVE BECOME FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS AMPLIFICATION WITH SIMILAR TRACK OF 500 HPA HEIGHT MINIMUM INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WOULD SET UP A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z GEM IS ONCE AGAIN AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE IN PART TO EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION ALSO AND BASED ON A STRONG EC/GFS CLUSTERING HAVE FOLLOWED IDEA OF ALLBLEND INIT POPS IN RAMPING UP TO LIKELY SNOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBILITIES IN THIS MORNINGS HWO FOR ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF FOR MID WEEK. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LAKE EFFECT CHANCE POPS THAN ALLBLEND INIT PROVIDED FOR WED NIGHT/THU. TEMPS TO CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 From PAH...strong wording... THE CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS BEGINNING TO GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME TOGETHER...WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE RUNS OF THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. THESE SOLUTIONS BRING A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CHRISTMAS NIGHT. IN RESPONSE..A VERY STRONG SFC LOW WOULD BEGIN TO SPIN UP ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND SHOOT NE INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY WED MORNING. IF THIS INDEED OCCURS...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WOULD COMBINE WITH WIDESPREAD LIFTING TO CREATE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BE OOZING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SNOW FIELDS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS AIR WOULD BE DRAWN SE QUICKER WITH TIME AS THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP OVER TN. CONSEQUENTLY...IF THE MODELS REMAIN STABLE /WE ARE STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT IN TIME/ ALL OF THIS WOULD BRING A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...SFC WINDS WOULD BE HOWLING OUT OF THE NORTH..WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 MPH RANGE...CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AGAIN...WE MUST STATE THAT SEVERAL THINGS NEED TO COME TOGETHER FOR THIS TO OCCUR...AND WE ARE STILL WELL OUT IN TIME. ANY TRENDS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK WOULD BRING MORE RAIN AND LESS SNOW...WHILE A SHIFT FURTHER S/SE WOULD REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS AND TAKE THE DEFORMATION AREA AND HEAVY SNOWS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...THAT WHICH EVER LOCATIONS THAT ACTUALLY MANAGE TO GET INTO THAT DEFORMATION ZONE COULD EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE WINTER STORM OF 2004...WHICH CRIPPLED THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH HEAVY SNOWS AND DEEP DRIFTS. ONLY TIME WILL TELL. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Pullin' for YYZ fro this one thanks. dmc and Josh too. EURO did shift east of its 12z/21 run but shockingly, even with what I would think is an unfavorable track, managed to get that much QPF up here. Must be some decent snows associated with ull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 From LOT... THE OTHER CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE A POTENT AND MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERN STREAM WINTER STORM. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS STORM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MY CWFA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A POTENT MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW GETTING INTO MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS CHICAGO. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THE STORM MISSES MUCH OF THE CHICAGO AREA. IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CHICAGO AREA AS A STRONGER ONSHORE COMPONENT AND HIGHER INVERSIONS HEIGHTS COULD LEAD TO A BETTER THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 CIPS analogs at 96 hours based off the 0z GFS at 96 hours...centered over the low in the southeast sector. Top 5 analog dates: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg= 1) December 24, 2002/12z 2) December 23, 2004/0z 3) December 5, 2002/0z 4) January 30, 2010/0z 5) December 5, 1984/0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 kick in the balls how close this thing is to being a lot bigger storm.. still pretty epic for detroit.. no dryslot.. with .50" QPF it should get them their normal biggie storm of 4-8" Its Saturday night already? lol..I told you Detroit has a better chance of getting a 12" storm in the next 100 yrs than you keeping your word that you would stay off the board until saturday night. So slim to none. dtws last 12" storm was jan 22 2005 so not as long as some think. I kno ur just messin around but I have no shame I would LOVE 4-8" powder. Having lots of those 3-6, 4-8, 6-11 type snowstotms is what made the last many years before last yr so special. Some on here from this area say if we get the biggie they don't care if the entire rest of winter sucks, but me? Just. Give. Me. SNOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 CIPS analogs at 96 hours based off the 0z GFS at 96 hours...centered over the low in the southeast sector. Top 5 analog dates: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F096&flg= 1) December 24, 2002/12z 2) December 23, 2004/0z 3) December 5, 2002/0z 4) January 30, 2010/0z 5) December 5, 1984/0z I like 1, and I really like 2. Interesting that 3 and 4 are completely flat tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 CIPS analogs at 96 hours based off the 0z GFS at 96 hours...centered over the low in the southeast sector. Top 5 analog dates: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg= 1) December 24, 2002/12z 2) December 23, 2004/0z 3) December 5, 2002/0z 4) January 30, 2010/0z 5) December 5, 1984/0z Interesting. Top two were great for dtw (6.5" and 8.9") but 00Z had not a flake here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I like 1, and I really like 2. Interesting that 3 and 4 are completely flat tracks. I'm a bit biased obviously, but #1 would be great here. #2 would be okay. The others as you alluded to, meh. It'll be interesting to watch these as we get closer, as I think they serve some value. Assuming of course a GFS and/or Euro like system pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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