AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It was pretty far se.... it's got a LOT of coming around to do. If you compare to the 12z it's shifted several hundred miles west... so if you want to get technical its almost halfway there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GEM forms a strong lead wave... 998mb in Central OH. Rain to heavy snow on X-mas eve along the I-80 corridor in Indiana/Ohio... second wave is a miss to the east. Though compared to it's 12z run it was significantly west. ....hard to imagine the euro missing the strength of a storm only 72 hrs out like that. Easy to imagine the ggem over amplifying a storm like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 maybe, but honestly if you have two teams, first has the euro and the gfs on it, and second has the uk, nogaps, ggem on it... I'm choosing team 1 everytime. fully aware of the blind squirrel thing OK. But I have been doing this as a professional for 25 years, and I would put the UK on that first team, not the second. I think the UK is a substantially superior model to the NOGAPS or GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ....hard to imagine the euro missing the strength of a storm only 72 hrs out like that. Easy to imagine the ggem over amplifying a storm like that. Agreed. The GGEM looks very squirrelly with overdeepening of that lead wave - but the GFS looks squirrelly with it for the opposing reason (although it has been trending stronger). Having said that, what the GGEM does with that lead wave could very well be affecting the later system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I doubt sampling will help much. Issue is further north and thus that block i posted about. THAT is what you need to hope that the models are wrong with. Nothing can come too far nw with that thing in the way. +1 Need the block to shift or weaken a bit. Think that energy to the west of Hudson Bay will trend southward in the next runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 FWIW the GFS Ensembles take a primary into eastern TN before transferring over to the DE coastline. At least some improvement from the 18z cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GEM forms a strong lead wave... 998mb in Central OH. Rain to heavy snow on X-mas eve along the I-80 corridor in Indiana/Ohio... second wave is a miss to the east. Though compared to it's 12z run it was significantly west. The UK only shows the lead wave at 1008 over WV. Therefore if a stronger frontrunner yields a further se track of the followup storm. then the UK should be west of the ggem OR the ggem should be east of the Uk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I doubt sampling will help much. Issue is further north and thus that block i posted about. THAT is what you need to hope that the models are wrong with. Nothing can come too far nw with that thing in the way. I still think us in the Detroit area are in the game, you not so much. BUT I would settle for a 00z GEM scenario...the southern 2 rows of counties in MI see heavy snow Christmas Eve afternoon and evening. My god the models are just everywhere with these different waves lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The UK only shows the lead wave at 1008 over WV. Therefore if a stronger frontrunner yields a further se track of the followup storm. then the UK should be west of the ggem OR the ggem should be east of the Uk. LOL, yeah, I thought about that too - so obviously what is going on with the second wave is obviously only partially driven by the first (which makes sense). As I said in an earlier post, this is a complex interaction and there will likely be changes - probably even in the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The UK only shows the lead wave at 1008 over WV. Therefore if a stronger frontrunner yields a further se track of the followup storm. then the UK should be west of the ggem OR the ggem should be east of the Uk. The fact that there's not even close to a clear consensus with the lead wave at 72-84hrs just shows how much of a headache that second wave will be. If the first one isn't set in stone at 72hrs out then this second wave is probably going to be an absolute b*tch too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I still think us in the Detroit area are in the game, you not so much. BUT I would settle for a 00z GEM scenario...the southern 2 rows of counties in MI see heavy snow Christmas Eve afternoon and evening. My god the models are just everywhere with these different waves lol Agree with this. Extreme Southeastern Michigan is still well in the game at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The fact that there's not even close to a clear consensus with the lead wave at 72-84hrs just shows how much of a headache that second wave will be. If the first one isn't set in stone at 72hrs out then this second wave is probably going to be an absolute b*tch too. good point so, is the ggem a coastal then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Could be safe to say that the GGEM trended NW (although who knows if its for sure a jump or just a blip) and the GFS ensembles are looking a bit better than the 12z runs. Cant wait to see what the Euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 good point so, is the ggem a coastal then? It goes off the SC coast and then up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 good point so, is the ggem a coastal then? Yeah, Central SC to extreme east VA, then it deepens to 986mb off the NJ coast... ends up as a weird looking low east of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It goes off the SC coast and then up the coast. between the uk and ggem DT must be barking and blowing like a dog trying to **** out a horn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It goes off the SC coast and then up the coast. Looks more like it ends up around NJ to me...Leaves the coast around SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If you compare to the 12z it's shifted several hundred miles west... so if you want to get technical its almost halfway there lol Just looked pretty closely comparing the 12Z and 00Z, and the main difference is after Christmas Day, when the GGEM appears to have trended a bit toward the EC in having more northern stream energy phase into the system, resulting in a deeper somewhat farther west track. This difference is more noticeable aloft than at the surface - the surface low positions at 00Z Wed evening are only maybe 100-200 miles different, which to me is almost in the noise that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 so i guess.....technically.....you could say the uk and ggem took a step towards the euro/gfs. Afterall weren't they both OTS at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 +1 Need the block to shift or weaken a bit. Think that energy to the west of Hudson Bay will trend southward in the next runs? Any shift needs to be north or west. Best option ofcourse is not being there period. Then as wxsmwhrms pointed out there is the issue of the lead wave/event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 who has a good ggem link. The one I've always used seems to take forever to update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 who has a good ggem link. The one I've always used seems to take forever to update http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=〈=en Usually is updated by midnight or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 who has a good ggem link. The one I've always used seems to take forever to update http://meteocentre.c...&run=00〈=en Has Meteograms with snowfall too... EDIT: Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 thank you Apps, hm8!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z Euro looking like it will hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z Euro looking like it will hold serve. Bit further west if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Bit further west if anything That and a little colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 @120hr There's a 1002mb primary on the WV/OH border with a stronger secondary over the Chesapeake Bay. Looks like another solid hit for Buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 SEMI still in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Long time no post... But the EURO is holding its own.... How long till we start sounding the horns? I say another 36-48 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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