jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's not an awful run for Southern Illinois/Northern Kentucky either... nope, not a bad run at all... waiting for the clown maps to update but 12z sure looked nice for southern Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's still probably going to have a slow time getting that ULL to move out of the way in a solution like that. yep.. This is our problem and or the problem for those wanting it to come further to the nw.. Area circled in red needs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 To me, the 00Z GFS looks pretty similar to its 12Z run, except it trended a little in its surface low and the way its wrapping up toward the 12Z EC. Its surface low positions are now almost identical to the EC through the day Wednesday, although not as deep. The GFS was not being aggressive enough in wrapping moisture and cold air around the center as it moved into the southern Apps, and has trended toward the EC in this regard, though still not as much. It is important to recognize there are still substantial differences between the GFS and all the other models with the strength of the lead wave that moves through Monday, with the other models slower and more amplified. The GFS has trended toward that slower/deeper solution every run. It is likely that at least part of the reason the EC is stronger with the Christmas/Wed system is that it has an overall more amplified pattern and stronger baroclinicity in place because of the stronger lead system. If the 00Z EC holds serve with intensity and track, one would guess the GFS will continue to trend toward it - but given that this is a complex pattern that is certainly not a given. Will also obviously be interesting to see what the UK and GGEM do. Great analysis. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nope, not a bad run at all... waiting for the clown maps to update but 12z sure looked nice for southern Illinois Posted a snowfall map on the previous page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Oh well. LES for northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lmfao. Lets throw in the towel this far out guys. Esp. after the GFS. Good call. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like it is still retrograding a bit while the s/w starts moving north lol. NOW.. If it were to retrograde FAR ENOUGH... Meh.. Who am i kidding.. lol Better odd's of the world ending in 15minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I bet we don't see any significant shifts in the models tonight. In fact I would bet now the ggem and uk keep the suppressed look and the euro is not all that different from 12z. Sunday comes into the 72 hour window and that's when we'll start getting a much better picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I bet we don't see any significant shifts in the models tonight. In fact I would bet now the ggem and uk keep the suppressed look and the euro is not all that different from 12z. Sunday comes into the 72 hour window and that's when we'll start getting a much better picture. 10 bucks says the GGEM bombs it out for the I-95 crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z Ukie stays way south and then up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 anyone want to extrapolate this? That lobe dipping down over the greatlakes is much furter west (slower) than the gfs shows it at 72. I would guess that will keep the heights flattened more out in front of the storm and we end up with a suppressed solution edit: oops...just saw that other post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm in the bulls-eye at 5 days out. The kiss of death.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 10 bucks says the GGEM bombs it out for the I-95 crew can't take that bet... I could see that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z Ukie stays way south and then up the coast. Yep, 00Z UK is still farther SE than GFS. Takes deepening surface low from near Slidell, LA at 00Z Christmas evening to just offshore the Tidewater at 00Z Wed evening, then a few hundred miles E of Cape Cod 00Z Thu evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I dont think I ever recall a storm 5+ days out where all the models generally had the same track. Blizzard of 99 and the GHD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 UKMET is the kiss of death. ukmet does have a history of beating the hell out of the euro. ....storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ukmet does have a history of beating the hell out of the euro. ....storm cancel Bahaha. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 UKMET is the kiss of death. I don't recall hearing a lot about the UKMET in the several AFD's that I have read. How reliable is this particular model??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 First wave can go DIAF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't recall hearing a lot about the UKMET in the several AFD's that I have read. How reliable is this particular model??? think nogaps on coke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I just feel like the ukie is lost atm. Could just be a gut feeling. Take it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 think nogaps on coke You do realize that in many (most?) months the UKMET has better verification stats than the GFS at day 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yep, 00Z UK is still farther SE than GFS. Takes deepening surface low from near Slidell, LA at 00Z Christmas evening to just offshore the Tidewater at 00Z Wed evening, then a few hundred miles E of Cape Cod 00Z Thu evening. How's the Ukie been doing lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the EURO caves...then I cave. Until then I still sorta kinda feel good about this storm for DTW toward YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z GGEM still suppressed but it has come northwest some. Might be finally coming around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You do realize that in many (most?) months the UKMET has better verification stats than the GFS at day 5? maybe, but honestly if you have two teams, first has the euro and the gfs on it, and second has the uk, nogaps, ggem on it... I'm choosing team 1 everytime. fully aware of the blind squirrel thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the EURO caves...then I cave. Until then I still sorta kinda feel good about this storm for DTW toward YYZ. Exactly how I'm feeling at this point. However, I'd wait until this thing gets sampled to throw in the towel regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GEM forms a strong lead wave... 998mb in Central OH. Rain to heavy snow on X-mas eve along the I-80 corridor in Indiana/Ohio... second wave is a miss to the east. Though compared to it's 12z run it was significantly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z GGEM still suppressed but it has come northwest some. Might be finally coming around. It was pretty far se.... it's got a LOT of coming around to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Exactly how I'm feeling at this point. However, I'd wait until this thing gets sampled to throw in the towel regardless. I doubt sampling will help much. Issue is further north and thus that block i posted about. THAT is what you need to hope that the models are wrong with. Nothing can come too far nw with that thing in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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