mnweather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Superstorm 93? I can remember Jim Cantore saying how a week before it happened, they saw the models showing a monster and they were in disbelief. The most consistent model for the superstorm was the MRF. The UKMET and ECMWF were too far north with development and even OTS. Here is an excellent paper on model performance in regards to that event. Sorry for the OT. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477%281995%29076%3C0183%3AFTMS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 FWIW...NAM at 84hr is much more inline with the Euro/12z GFS kind of idea. Looks like that secondary (northern s/w) piece of energy is further west on the NAM, SW of Hudson Bay. Compared to the last run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS looks fairly similar to its 18z run through 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 From what I've seen through 78, fairly confident the GFS will not move towards the EURO in any substantial way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS finally starting to power up that lead s/w a bit. Key trend to watch. That might not be a good thing, considering the wave that ends up carving out the trough might end up weaker in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That might not be a good thing, considering the wave that ends up carving out the trough might end up weaker in that case. IF it can give that ugly blocking that is being shown a boot then yeah it is a good thing. It as well could strengthen it which ala does zero for most in this sub forum as it could force the main system further to the se and thus end up with a I95 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looking like the 12z run. Not surprized by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well, that was anti-climactic. Fully expect capitulation by the EURO in the morning. 'night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well, that was anti-climactic. Fully expect capitulation by the EURO in the morning. 'night It's almost like the GFS knows where the international border is lol. Anyways the GFS still keeps too much confluence over Quebec otherwise this would have been good. And please stay positive when it comes to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z GFS Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00Z not a bad run for Southern/Central Indiana...Kentucky...Southern Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0z GFS Snowfall Wow...I am in the sweet spot...for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's almost like the GFS knows where the international border is lol. Anyways the GFS still keeps too much confluence over Quebec otherwise this would have been good. And please stay positive when it comes to the EURO. There is a large upper level low over Quebec... ULL ≠ confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well, that was anti-climactic. Fully expect capitulation by the EURO in the morning. 'night The NCEP site is about as slow as this winter has started off. interesting how the low shunts east/transfers pretty early in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looking like a Columbus to Boston special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 There is a large upper low over Quebec... Well the GFS is hanging on to it way too long IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 well congrats OH Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well the GFS is hanging on to it way too long IMO There is a block to the east/north that is preventing it from progressing, undercutting ridges is not an easy thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think it might be safe to say now that Evansville's snow streak will end at 705 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The NCEP site is about as slow as this winter has started off. interesting how the low shunts east/transfers pretty early in Tennessee. Can thank that block to the north for that. Chances are slim to none that we see much of anything from this system. I am near certain it misses here imby.. Again thanks to that block.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think it might be safe to say now that Evansville's snow streak will end at 705 days ..... and now you just jinxed us. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ..... and now you just jinxed us. Thanks. lol, but in all seriousness i would be shocked if this does NOT pan out for Evansville.... too many models coming in line showing SOMETHING for the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ..... and now you just jinxed us. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yes, if the lead s/w would be handled better.....well..........? It's still probably going to have a slow time getting that ULL to move out of the way in a solution like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looking like a Columbus to Boston special. More like a southeast half of IN to Boston special. Now only if the transfer can hold off a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Might as well post this; Winter might turn out this way LOL.... <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/H152dAdIz68" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 well congrats OH Valley... Well thanks...we have been under a snow drought for quite some time now. I hope this one plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 More like a southeast half of IN to Boston special. Now only if the transfer can hold off a little longer. It's not an awful run for Southern Illinois/Northern Kentucky either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 To me, the 00Z GFS looks pretty similar to its 12Z run, except it trended a little in its surface low and the way its wrapping up toward the 12Z EC. Its surface low positions are now almost identical to the EC through the day Wednesday, although not as deep. The GFS was not being aggressive enough in wrapping moisture and cold air around the center as it moved into the southern Apps, and has trended toward the EC in this regard, though still not as much. It is important to recognize there are still substantial differences between the GFS and all the other models with the strength of the lead wave that moves through Monday, with the other models slower and more amplified. The GFS has trended toward that slower/deeper solution every run. It is likely that at least part of the reason the EC is stronger with the Christmas/Wed system is that it has an overall more amplified pattern and stronger baroclinicity in place because of the stronger lead system. If the 00Z EC holds serve with intensity and track, one would guess the GFS will continue to trend toward it - but given that this is a complex pattern that is certainly not a given. Will also obviously be interesting to see what the UK and GGEM do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lmfao. Lets throw in the towel this far out guys. Esp. after the GFS. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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