Gilbertfly Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 AKA...see you sampling day... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 326 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2012 THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING EAST AND WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS CHRISTMAS DAY. AS HAS BEEN STATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN WHAT THE UPPER LOW SUBSEQUENTLY DOES. MODELS ALMOST ALWAYS HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE TYPES OF FRONTS IN THE EXTENDED AS TEMPORAL AND VERTICAL RESOLUTIONS OF THE MODELS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UNDERSTAND EVERYTHING THAT IS OCCURRING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 David Phillips: "It's like Mother Nature has forgotten how to snow in Toronto." Yep that's Toronto for you the great snowhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 agree to disagree... nothing but model noise and the 51 Euro ENS that keep those same in hope every cutter storm to MI. EURO was steadfast nailing SW WI through Grande Cheese from 5 days out and in the end that's what happened and all I care about. some totals near 20" with this past storm that you said wouldn't happen All of this shows how people's perception of the model varies by what it shows for their area of interest, and how accurate that ended up being, rather than overall performance. A met friend of mine did a quick verification of the models for the last system, and what it basically showed was that none of them was dead on. The EC was consistently a bit too far south, the GFS was consistently a bit too far N, the NAM moreso as far as being too far N. But what they did on one particular system does not necessarily mean anything about the next one. I would still start with the EC and its ensemble for this system just because it tends to be the most accurate and the least prone to HUGE busts, but that certainly doesn't mean it's going to be perfect. The fact that such a huge positive anomaly is being shown by ALL the models NW of Hudson Bay implies to me that the pattern is going to be at least suppressed and a big cutter toward the Lakes is not as likely as with the past system. The models clearly seem to be struggling with the amount of amplification and phasing that will occur, so there will be adjustments, but I think the trends of the last couple of days suggest less chance of a huge trend back to the NW, at least as far NW as many of the models were showing several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 and that's pretty dam good in my opinion. It's good but there's no doubt it had to correct NW a bit. It wasn't as bad as Chistorm made it sound, but also not as good as you are making it sound. It progged the effects pretty well, although underdid precip totals until we got closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 David Phillips: "It's like Mother Nature has forgotten how to snow in Toronto." Awesome. Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Awesome. Do you have a link? I live in Vancouver right now, saw it on TWN (which is pretty god-awful now, aside from Chris St. Clair and Suzanne Leonard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 agree to disagree... nothing but model noise and the 51 Euro ENS that keep those same in hope every cutter storm to MI. EURO was steadfast nailing SW WI through Grande Cheese from 5 days out and in the end that's what happened and all I care about. some totals near 20" with this past storm that you said wouldn't happen And neither did the Euro. Seriously, normally the Euro is really good, and it was decently consistent and not far off wrt the track, but it was too weak overall and way too dry on precip until the couple days prior to the event. It wasn't horrible but it wasn't great either. The GFS, particularly the Ensembles, were better and slightly more consistent with the track, and the NAM started off laughable, then corrected toward the mean and consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 All of this shows how people's perception of the model varies by what it shows for their area of interest, and how accurate that ended up being, rather than overall performance. A met friend of mine did a quick verification of the models for the last system, and what it basically showed was that none of them was dead on. The EC was consistently a bit too far south, the GFS was consistently a bit too far N, the NAM moreso as far as being too far N. But what they did on one particular system does not necessarily mean anything about the next one. I would still start with the EC and its ensemble for this system just because it tends to be the most accurate and the least prone to HUGE busts, but that certainly doesn't mean it's going to be perfect. The fact that such a huge positive anomaly is being shown by ALL the models NW of Hudson Bay implies to me that the pattern is going to be at least suppressed and a big cutter toward the Lakes is not as likely as with the past system. The models clearly seem to be struggling with the amount of amplification and phasing that will occur, so there will be adjustments, but I think the trends of the last couple of days suggest less chance of a huge trend back to the NW, at least as far NW as many of the models were showing several days ago. Wow, thoughtful analysis from a met. Our threads need more of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 You know this storm is on its death bed when people are arguing about how much the GFS/NAM sucks and how perfect the EURO is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I live in Vancouver right now, saw it on TWN (which is pretty god-awful now, aside from Chris St. Clair and Suzanne Leonard). Glad to know Chris is still alive and kicking. He's one of the more knowledgeable presenters. I haven't watched TWN in years. It's really for the more casual observer of the weather, The station really doesn't add anything for those of us who are more informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You know this storm is on its death bed when people are arguing about how much the GFS/NAM sucks and how perfect the EURO is. Your luck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You know this storm is on its death bed when people are arguing about how much the GFS/NAM sucks and how perfect the EURO is. Nah. Just a sign of impatience with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lol. This system is all about vortex split and s/w interaction/timing. Violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nah. Just a sign of impatience with the models. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Violently agree meh, I'm violently sitting on the fence. ok on another note i'm extrapolating the nam beyond 84 hrs ....it gonna go boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tough to say what the NAM would do beyond 84. Looks like it has the dual vortex scenario a la the EURO, but I'm not sure about the timing. Might be a bit faster with the southern stream s/w, which could preclude an earlier phase and support a further east track. Honestly though, it's anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nah. Just a sign of impatience with the models. I doubt the same argument would be taking place if all of the models had a 985mb low curling NNE towards Cleveland right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I doubt the same argument would be taking place if all of the models had a 985mb low curling NNE towards Cleveland right now.. The key phrase is "if all". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 meh, I'm violently sitting on the fence. ok on another note i'm extrapolating the nam beyond 84 hrs ....it gonna go boom At least I'm not the only one who has to bear that shame I agree it wouldn't be suppressed but I'm not sure it'd be as swell as the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 FWIW...NAM at 84hr is much more inline with the Euro/12z GFS kind of idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I doubt the same argument would be taking place if all of the models had a 985mb low curling NNE towards Cleveland right now... I dont think I ever recall a storm 5+ days out where all the models generally had the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 I dont think I ever recall a storm 5+ days out where all the models generally had the same track. GHD storm, for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 SREFS look more like the GFS on average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GHD storm, for one. Superstorm 93? I can remember Jim Cantore saying how a week before it happened, they saw the models showing a monster and they were in disbelief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Couple of them look like yesterday's 12z ECMWF. ARWs (first row) would probably cut this way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Superstorm 93? I can remember Jim Cantore saying how a week before it happened, they saw the models showing a monster and they were in disbelief. most famous had to be the chicago blizzard ('99 ??? the one right around new years) I tracked that sucker on TWC for 7 days, and it virtually never waivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Superstorm 93? I can remember Jim Cantore saying how a week before it happened, they saw the models showing a monster and they were in disbelief. The 1999 blizzard was also shown a week out. No doubt some of the biggies were on the models for a long time, Im just talking where all have the same track. Especially the last several years, the models are always in such disagreement on almost every storm threat past 3 days out its ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 most famous had to be the chicago blizzard ('99 ??? the one right around new years) I tracked that sucker on TWC for 7 days, and it virtually never waivered. You beat me to it... This was spot on 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You beat me to it... This was spot on 7 days. But doesnt TWC (esp back then) use one computer for all its forecasts? So that one computer (GFS i think?) may not have waivered in track, but what did others show? If we have a storm where all the models track it in general the same place, this board SHOULD go bonkers, because in this day and age it seems like a win if you can find a conseunsus of under 300 miles 3+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 violently disagree and the same to the others who tink the euro wasn't good... GFS, GEM, UK, etc were no saints either than if you think the euro was far from good. Euro was dialed in for days with hardly any waiver for my area. Inside 5 days or so the Euro only really had one burp that went south and kept me all snow.. I think all the models had that one milkshake run that brought all the weenies in us out to forum and produced 3 pages in 2 hrs. yeah towards the end the euro might of been 30 miles to far south and a tad to cold probably for here but that's usual noise especially in such a delicate situation storm. For a few days the euro had a track near Hoosier and even for a run was further to the se with the track over Indianapolis to near Toledo.. The closest the euro got ( inside of 36hrs ) was with it's track to Benton Harbor. You're wrong in the case. The GFS was one of the best inside the 3-4 day window. On top of that, it was the ECMWF and it's ENS that kept more in the game and gave hope. That was when the Hulk Hogan image was posted and no one knew whether to jump or not. Agree strongly.. the euro ensembles really blew it with this one. Took them till we were about 24hrs out to finally join the others further to the nw. All of this shows how people's perception of the model varies by what it shows for their area of interest, and how accurate that ended up being, rather than overall performance. A met friend of mine did a quick verification of the models for the last system, and what it basically showed was that none of them was dead on. The EC was consistently a bit too far south, the GFS was consistently a bit too far N, the NAM moreso as far as being too far N. But what they did on one particular system does not necessarily mean anything about the next one. I would still start with the EC and its ensemble for this system just because it tends to be the most accurate and the least prone to HUGE busts, but that certainly doesn't mean it's going to be perfect. The fact that such a huge positive anomaly is being shown by ALL the models NW of Hudson Bay implies to me that the pattern is going to be at least suppressed and a big cutter toward the Lakes is not as likely as with the past system. The models clearly seem to be struggling with the amount of amplification and phasing that will occur, so there will be adjustments, but I think the trends of the last couple of days suggest less chance of a huge trend back to the NW, at least as far NW as many of the models were showing several days ago. Recall it was about a week ago ( maybe less? ) ALL the models had been showing the block being stronger by the time this event arrived. Take a peek at the SNE forum and the threads about the pattern. In short the models have been blowing it with the pattern etc beyond day 5-7.. The pattern HAS changed but it has not changed to one that most models had been indicating. I recall a slew of posts about how great ( snowy ) December would be in these parts and then it was mid month and then late Month. Here i sit with just 1.5" for the month.. Now the talk is about suppression? Can thank modeling to this. No i wont blame the mets as they usually have a very decent handle on this stuff and modeling. Point is i would not get overly worked up ( or too confident ) about anything being shown on the models beyond day 5. They mentioned that as well even though some ignored their warnings.. The supposed ( we'll see ) big storm is still just outside of that range. Agree that it wont get as far nw as this past one but yeah i will not be foolish enough to totally write that off either NOT with THESE models with how they have been behaving in the mid/long range and or day 5 and beyond. And yeah we could end up a I95 special as well. Not saying the euro is terrible either BUT it is not the once mighty model it was. It may have a better handle on the pattern overall but with storms/track it is NOT what it once was. Was a time when if the euro locked into something at day 5 on in the other models came around to it and the storm ended up close to what it had been showing. That i think is THE PERCEPTION problem we see with people and that model in particular. SOME look at the overall pattern and say hey it did good while others are looking closer at the details such as a event like this and saying not the case. Ofcourse the GFS has seen some improvements of it's own which probably gives the impression to some that the euro is worse then it use to be when that may not totally be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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