michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ^^ Going against the EURO and it's ensemble runs... I know there are a lot of questions remaining but saying the EURO is out in left field is a little overkill don't you think? Several runs of the GFS have looked similar. More encouraging is that the EURO ensemble runs agree with the operational. Not saying that continues, but when you see agreement between the op EURO and it's ensembles, that could be a sign that EURO is ahead of the game. Keep in mind...the Euro has FIFTY-ONE ensemble members. If the OP was on its own, I guess you could call that left field....but when a 51-member ensemble mean says something different than the gfs, gem, or uk, I would not quite toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Approach it with caution. I think we are all approaching it with caution. No one said that its solution was the right one...just that it may have more credence because the ensemble runs are similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Keep in mind...the Euro has FIFTY-ONE ensemble members. If the OP was on its own, I guess you could call that left field....but when a 51-member ensemble mean says something different than the gfs, gem, or uk, I would not quite toss it. How did that work out with the last storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How did that work out with the last storm... actually a good question. How did the euro do on the last storm? When did it lock into the right track etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think we are all approaching it with caution. No one said that its solution was the right one...just that it may have more credence because the ensemble runs are similar to the op. Well, my friend with the Maple Leafs avatar certainly isn't. I'm not too familiar with the EURO ensembles. I do know that the GEFS can tend to have a obsequious relationship with the OP GFS, where the GEFS simply mirror the OP GFS, despite major run to run continuity problems. If (and it's a big IF) the EURO ensembles are anything like that, then there's reason to detract from their credibility. I think my point about the H5 evolution on the EURO/EURO ensembles being a little atypical still stands though. That, in and of itself should give one pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How did that work out with the last storm... Yeah wasn't it too far Southeast with last storm. If anything that would lead to more credence that there might be more shifts in the model potentially Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 actually a good question. How did the euro do on the last storm? When did it lock into the right track etc? I think the EURO had everything too far south for a few runs. I remember at D6-7 it was trying to bury me in snow (sound familiar?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well, my friend with the Maple Leafs avatar certainly isn't. I'm not too familiar with the EURO ensembles. I do know that the GEFS can tend to have a obsequious relationship with the OP GFS, where the GEFS simply mirror the OP GFS, despite major run to run continuity problems. If (and it's a big IF) the EURO ensembles are anything like that, then there's reason to detract from their credibility. I think my point about the H5 evolution on the EURO/EURO ensembles being a little atypical still stands though. That, in and of itself should give one pause. I still think...clear all the crap out of the way, let the smoke clear, the frontrunner do it's thing, and in the end if there ends up being a correction it will favor those to the nw. just a hunch. I'm not buying the southeast suppression stuff, if anything this deepens more as modelling time moves forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah the EURO had the low crossing between LAF and GYY on most runs. (Closer to LAF) So a bit of distance off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think the EURO had everything too far south for a few runs. I remember at D6-7 it was trying to bury me in snow (sound familiar?). I'm too lazy to go back thru archived posts but I don't ever recall being in the sweetspot with it...unless it was like 7+ days out for a run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I still think...clear all the crap out of the way, let the smoke clear, the frontrunner do it's thing, and in the end if there ends up being a correction it will favor those to the nw. just a hunch. I'm not buying the southeast suppression stuff, if anything this deepens more as modelling time moves forward. This would make sense if there was a decent time difference between the 2 but there is only 48 hours between the 2, NWS is going to be pulling triggers on watches before the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah wasn't it too far Southeast with last storm. If anything that would lead to more credence that there might be more shifts in the model potentially Northwest. Last Saturdays 12z EUROs track was almost perfect with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 actually a good question. How did the euro do on the last storm? When did it lock into the right track etc? Too far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 actually a good question. How did the euro do on the last storm? When did it lock into the right track etc? Yeah wasn't it too far Southeast with last storm. If anything that would lead to more credence that there might be more shifts in the model potentially Northwest. I think the EURO had everything too far south for a few runs. I remember at D6-7 it was trying to bury me in snow (sound familiar?). The OP run and even more so the ensembles were much farther south than other guidance for a time, and were the last to abandoned ship. Heck, at one point the ENS mean had the SLP near the bootheel of MO, while the other models were well to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah the EURO had the low crossing between LAF and GYY on most runs. (Closer to LAF) So a bit of distance off. vs. over Chicago in the end.....meh, that correction amount is do-able. I think we (I'd) still be safe with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 just a hunch. I'm not buying the southeast suppression stuff, if anything this deepens more as modelling time moves forward. Bingo. The Price Is Right. Please proceed to the showcase showdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Last Saturdays 12z EUROs track was almost perfect with the last storm. and that's pretty dam good in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 look how off the nam was.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 and that's pretty dam good in my opinion. The euro was far from good on the last storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 look how off the nam was.. Do not hotlink images from instantweathermaps.com. Instead use an image hosting site such as imageshack.us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The ECMWF ENS mean 3 days out from the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The ECMWF ENS mean 3 days out from the last system. Talk about suppressed...that's probably why I was more interested in the severe threat at the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The last system was an example of how the Euro can be off 3-4 days in, so I'd be a little shy about putting complete faith in a 5-6 day prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 look how off the nam was.. The euro was further off. It got last place in the last storm. It has had many wins but that was not one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Out of the game most likely here, but will be rooting for you guys in the OH valley and especially YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Do not hotlink images from instantweathermaps.com. Instead use an image hosting site such as imageshack.us. ok I will just delete them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The euro was far from good on the last storm.. violently disagree and the same to the others who tink the euro wasn't good... GFS, GEM, UK, etc were no saints either than if you think the euro was far from good. Euro was dialed in for days with hardly any waiver for my area. Inside 5 days or so the Euro only really had one burp that went south and kept me all snow.. I think all the models had that one milkshake run that brought all the weenies in us out to forum and produced 3 pages in 2 hrs. yeah towards the end the euro might of been 30 miles to far south and a tad to cold probably for here but that's usual noise especially in such a delicate situation storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 violently disagree and the same to the others who tink the euro wasn't good... GFS, GEM, UK, etc were no saints either than if you think the euro was far from good. Euro was dialed in for days with hardly any waiver for my area. Inside 5 days or so the Euro only really had one burp that went south and kept me all snow.. I think all the models had that one milkshake run that brought all the weenies in us out to forum and produced 3 pages in 2 hrs. yeah towards the end the euro might of been 30 miles to far south and a tad to cold probably for here but that's usual noise especially in such a delicate situation storm. You're wrong in the case. The GFS was one of the best inside the 3-4 day window. On top of that, it was the ECMWF and it's ENS that kept more in the game and gave hope. That was when the Hulk Hogan image was posted and no one knew whether to jump or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 David Phillips: "It's like Mother Nature has forgotten how to snow in Toronto." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You're wrong in the case. The GFS was one of the best inside the 3-4 day window. On top of that, it was the ECMWF and it's ENS that kept more in the game and gave hope. That was when the Hulk Hogan image was posted and no one knew whether to jump or not. agree to disagree... nothing but model noise and the 51 Euro ENS that keep those same in hope every cutter storm to MI. EURO was steadfast nailing SW WI through Grande Cheese from 5 days out and in the end that's what happened and all I care about. some totals near 20" with this past storm that you said wouldn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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